February 3 , 2006

Inside Veritas -
Article 1 -
9th Annual BAMF "Exhibitors' Night" opens at 4:00 p.m.
Article 2 -
Year end 2005 single family/condo data only tell "half" the story
Article 3 - Housing and Economic Briefs
Article 4 - Existing Market Activity
Article 5 - Taxation and Finance by Rachor; Purman & Tucker CPAs
Why Corporate Officers' Should Not Cover "Company" Costs
Association News Update From Laura
New Construction and Sales Activity

BS: Still about Nothing in particular
Editorial - 30 years of housing say '05's quite strong
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9th Annual BAMF "Exhibitors' Night" opens at 4:00 p.m.

It’s become one of the most successful, enjoyable evenings of the year as our annual Exhibitors’ Night “trade show” continues to grow, attracting over 240 members in recent years. In 2005 we had 38 exhibitors, and expect a similar number at the February 15th (Wednesday) event at Bonapartes’, for our special buffet (burgers, Brats, Pizza), complementary beverages (beer, wine, soft drinks), and drawings for some incredible prizes donated by exhibitors.

The event begins at 4:00 p.m., and runs to 7:00. Plan to attend on the 15th, and we ask that you RSVP by noon Thursday (February 9th) so we can assure enough food and drink.

Note: There may be tables available for exhibitors. Call 603-2200 if interested.

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Year end 2005 single family/condo data only tell "half" the story

Judging by Sunday’s (1-29) Flint Journal report, along with the data we’ve received from Housing Consultants, it’s safe to say that new housing activity was right where expected, around 1,800 single family and condo units last year.

While we haven’t had the opportunity to check out the discrepancies, only two are significant (Forest and Fenton Townships) and those are likely on the high side, suggesting the 1,800 number is reasonably accurate.

However, the year-end data fail to tell the story of housing activity in Genesee County, or in the Southeast region of the state, because the rate of de-cline was distorted by a number of factors. First, concerns about a new energy code had a dramatic impact on the first quarter, when ‘non-rental’ permit activity soared 39% locally as compared to 2004. However, even with the push from “energy code” concerns, the region as a whole was already down 7.5% quarter’s end.

By the time the year was half over, the Flint area remained 2.2% ahead of 2004, while the region was already off 13.5% year to date.

However, under the premise that “energy code” distortions were no longer impacting permit data by the 3rd quarter, we can get a more accurate look at the industry in the 2nd half and, what we find is that sales as well as permits, fell off dramatically. For example, Housing Consultants’ data show a 31% drop in Genesee County permit activity during the final 6 months, and an incredible 42.3% decline in the fourth quarter alone. And realtors’ data show local sales falling 7.7% in the 2nd half, 12.5% in the fourth quarter. So, the trend is obvious.

Despite the drop, 2005 still represented a solid year for area builders, as will the 1300 to be built in ‘06. However, the decline of 800 units over two years will have a serious impact on the local community in jobs (equivalent to 1,900) and rising tax base (that made up for declines in state revenue sharing in recent years). Per-haps that will give some of our ‘anti-growth’ communities reason for a change of heart.

 

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Housing & Economic Briefs

U.S. Economic growth tumbled during 2005’s fourth quarter as Gross Domestic Product grew at an annual rate of 1.1%, its slowest level since the end of 2002. For all of ‘05 GDP grew at a rate of 3.5%, down from 2004 but up from ‘03’s 2.7%.

Critical to the anemic growth was plummeting auto sales that fell 17.5%, the deepest decline in 18 years, leading to surprisingly weak consumer spending that grew (ironically) 1.1% after (also ironically) rising 4.1% (the same level as GDP) in the 3rd quarter.

What was most fascinating regarding the GDP report was the market reaction: Indexes roared as the Dow Industrials jumped 96 points on the findings, supposedly based on hopes for an end to Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. On the other hand, some of us are more concerned that the decline in spending signifies that higher costs for oil, utilities and housing are severely impacting disposable income and consumers ability to spend.

If you turned to Governor Granholm’s “State of the State” address last month, you probably checked the channel to see if you’d turned to ESPN’s cheerleading finals by mistake. The way the governor was gushing about the economy you may, as a “Free Press” columnist (Brian Dickerson) wrote, “wonder from what parallel universe she was speaking?”

Most shocking to some was the claim that 99,000 jobs were created in Michigan since January 2003, when Granholm took office (particularly if you’ve read our frequent reports of the loss of 300,000 jobs since ‘00). Well, that’s the problem with the federal government’s “jobs’ data:’ it tells two stories.

The normally accepted measure of employment comes from the government’s payroll survey of thousands of businesses, but excludes “farm” payrolls and a number of self employed. This is the report we’ve been using for decades, and it shows Michigan lost 96,500 jobs since Dec-ember ‘02. The other measure (which unemployment rates are based on) takes a much smaller sample of “households,” and its reliability is highly suspect. But, it does maintain a rise of nearly 95,000 jobs over the same period. So, the governor’s claims, however absurd, may be without merit, but not without documentation.

Couldn’t help but take notice of the California Realtors’ sales’ report for December, showing a dramatic decline in activity during the final month of the year. Perhaps it was due to the rains in the North, but while sales had been running at a 650,000 rate for most of the year, it tumbled around 18.2%, to 532,000, at a time the median price remained at November’s level ($548,400).

The California data are significant because the state’s been responsible for around 9% of all U.S. sales, so the large decline took about 1.6% off the NAR’s December report.

Auto sales: Again, we’ve published before the month’s sales are released, but Merrill Lynch projects GM was down 10% in January (compared to last year) with its market share falling two points to 24%; Ford? down 5%, with its market share down to 18.2%...check Veritas update.

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Existing Market Activity

Once again, there were some very newsworthy bits of data in the National “Realtors’” monthly report on December’s existing home sales. However, as we’ve come to expect, that’s not what was reported.

While the month’s sales’ rate was off 6.6 million (5.7%) from November, it was enough for the new all time record of 7.072 million for the year. However, what’s truly “newsworthy,” but has gone un-recognized, is the fact that the median price not only fell for the second consecutive month, but is actually down for the final half of 2005.

December’s median price was $211,000, up 10.5% from December ‘04, down from a 13.2% rate the previous month. So, as we’ve come to expect, media reports focused on the declining rates of sales and price increases. But, the real news was the fact that the median price of an existing home was down 4% from August; 2.8% from June. At a time the NAR continues to deny evidence of a “bubble,” and forecasts a rise in prices of 5.1% this year, we’re about to see a real drop in median price in the 4th quarter as compared to the third.

While that doesn’t signify an actual decline in home values, it does signify that costs are finally having an impact on the market. In other words, not only are fewer homes being sold, buyers have turned to purchasing lower priced inventory.

Furthermore, while inventory fell to 2.8 million units, the supply of homes on the market was would take 5.1 months to sell, up 34% from 3.8 months’ at the beginning of the year.

Local Sales Tumbled in Q4
Through the first 3 quarters of 2005 it appeared that Flint area home sales would break the re-cord of 5,967 units set in 2004. Homes were selling at a rate of 6,200 through most of the year, and only a steep drop near the end could derail a 2nd consecutive record.

Well, with 401 units recorded in December, the fourth quarter numbers (1,268 sales) equated to an annual rate of 4,858, and brought the year-end total down to 5,867, or a 1.7% decline.

What’s perhaps more telling is that, on an adjusted basis, 4th quarter sales fell 19.4% below the 3rd quarter level (much like new housing). So, while ‘05 was a solid year for sales, the trends suggest weakness in 2006.

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Taxation and Finance by Rachor; Purman & Tucker CPAs
Why Corporate Officers' Should Not Cover "Company" Costs


In general, you cannot deduct an expense you incur on behalf of your corporation, even if it is a legitimate "trade or business" expense and even where the corporation is financially troubled. This is because a taxpayer can only de-duct expenses that are his own. And since your corporation's legal existence as a separate entity must be respected, the corporation's costs aren't yours and thus, can’t be deducted even if you in fact pay them.

What's more, the corporation won't be able to deduct them either because it didn't pay them itself. Accordingly, please be advised that it shouldn't be a practice of your corporation's officers or major shareholders to cover corporate costs.

On the other hand, if a corporate executive incurs costs which relate to an essential part of his duties as an executive they may be deductible as ordinary and necessary expenses related to his "trade or business" of being an executive. If you wish to set up an arrangement providing for such payments and safeguarding their deductibility, a provision should be included in your employment contract with the corporation stating the types of expenses which are part of your duties and authorizing you to incur them. For example, you may be authorized to attend out of town business conferences on the corporation's behalf at your personal expense.

Alternatively, to avoid the complete loss of any deductions by both yourself and the corporation, an arrangement should be in place under which the corporation reimburses you for the expenses you incur. This will at least allow the corporation to deduct the amount of the reimbursement.

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Beyond Seinfeld: It’s still about "Nothing" in particular

Cuckoo’s Nest to Luxury Living?

“Complementary poster of Nurse Ratched with purchase agreement!” Money magazine’s 101 dumbest moments in business caught our eye for ‘05 as its “#1 dumbest” was AvalonBay Communities’ conversion of a boarded up Mental Institution to a luxury housing complex in Danver, MA. While the item itself was interesting (to say the least), we found the notation in accompanying story particularly quotable: “The nuthouse-to-yuppie-house trend currently sweeping North America, with conversions also planned in Detroit, New York, Vancouver and Columbia (SC), where the centerpiece of development is an original brick building with the word ‘asylum’ chiseled into the facade.” What more needs to be said?

With super bowl weekend approaching, we can’t help but feel for 24 year old Nathan Mallet, the “Browns” fan who rushed the field and was body slammed by a “Steeler” ... Mallet was sentenced to a 5 year ban from Cleveland games, and to spend this year’s “Super Bowl Sunday” in jail, where he’ll miss the game.

Of course, if the crime had taken place in Detroit, we’d ask, where’s the punishment?

“Alan Greenspan”


No name has
graced the pages of Veritas (or its predecessors) over the past 27 years because no person’s had so continual an impact on the U.S. economy. His words moved markets, and economic decision making around the world.

While I became a Greenspan fan during the Ford Administration, most only knew him as the “Maestro,” which he was dubbed for the way in which he orchestrated Federal Reserve activity (and the U.S. Economy) since ‘87.

Well, he’s leaving his post today (Jan. 31) and the fact that he has a 72% approval rating as (arguably) the 2nd most powerful person in the world is probably testament enough. However, the accolades will still continue to pour in for weeks.

But when I think of Greenspan, it’s not as Fed Chair, but as a private economist in the early ‘80s. While few seem to recall, it was Alan Greenspan who noted during the recession that consumer spending was still running at a solid clip, and savings were not rising, which was unusual for a recessionary period. Why? Greenspan concluded that Americans had so much equity in their homes, that they didn’t feel the imminent need to save.

That was the first time I’d ever heard of an economist noting the analogizing equity to savings which, ironically, became a cornerstone of his eventual success in steering the economy through the dangers of the early 2000s as “housing,” particularly the conversion of equity to cash, was credited for the consumer spending that kept us, originally out of recession, then keeping the “recession” mild.

No one recognized the importance of housing’s impact more than Alan Greenspan, and we can only hope his lessons are not forgotten!

Barry

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Association News and Events
by Laura

 

 

On January 18th Steve Steffey was installed as the association’s 2006 President, while Dave Crawford was not only presented with his outgoing President’s gift and plaque, but was reinstalled as the association’s Secretary. The evening included Crawford’s recognition of the outgoing leadership team’s efforts, and Steffey’s plans for the year, noting the need to “think outside the box” in assuring BAMF members claim a bigger share of 2006’s housing market.

While Ted Macksey (1st V.P.), and Bob Vance (2 V.P.) were also installed, it was announced that long time Treasurer Larry Corbett had retired from Republic Bank & would become a resident of Cape Coral by the end of January (per the by-laws, a new treasurer will be appointed from “elected” directors). We thank Larry for his decade of service to the association, wish him, and wife Toni, the best in retirement.

Contracts for the Spring Parade (May 13 - 28) were mailed to BAMF’s builders on January 19th. The 1st deadline to enter is February 15th (Exhibitors’ Night). After that date, the fee rises to $2,900.

We also mailed contracts for Housing Quarterly magazine on January 31st. If you’d like to participate in either the Parade or HQ and haven’t received (or misplaced) the mailing, give us a call at the BAMF office --- 810.603.2200.

See you at “Exhibitors’ Night”

 

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New Construction and Sales Activity

New Home Sales “Rise”

A rather interesting headline appeared on the front of CNN’s web last Friday: “Bubble? What bubble? New home sales soar.” The line linked to the article telling new home sales rose 2.9% in December. The 1.269 million unit rate brought the total 2005 estimate to a new record: 1.282 million, beating last year’s level by 6.6%.

Of course, the “bubble” theory doesn’t refer to the number of sales, as much as price. And, last month we noted a “builders advantage,” pointing out prices of new homes sold in November were barely above price in the same month a year earlier. Well, in December, the median price was $221,800, which was 1.5% below November’s. How-ever, that was 3.4% lower than the median price for December 2004, during the period existing home prices were up 10.5%.

So, we should hardly be surprised that new home sales are stronger than existing homes’ at this point. However, on page 3 we show that (even) existing home prices have begun to fall. Therefore, we can hardly find the new home sales’ report as “evidence” that a “bubble” isn’t an immediate threat.

Single Family Starts fall 12%

As you can see in the graph to the left, single family starts tumbled at the end of ‘05, down 12.3% from November’s level, and nearly 8% from December 2004. However, the historically solid month was strong enough to bring the year-end estimate of single family activity to 1.714 million units, up 6.4% from ‘04’s record.

While no month, and particularly December, can indicate a trend, we can still be somewhat concerned by the sharp decline after several months of relatively stable data.

Region/Genesee County

The local and regional market continued its decline in December, according to Housing Consultants monthly survey with an even greater rise in the gap between‘05 and ‘04. Through the year, Southeast Michigan was 22% below ‘04 for “non-rental” permits, with Genesee County down 15.2%.

What’s probably more indicative of the market was the continued decline in December in comparison to December 2004. Regionally we were off 37.1%, while locally it was 29.1%.

As you can see above, Gene-see County activity plummeted in the 2nd half and was down 31.4% for the period (730 in ‘05 v 1,064 in ‘04). The region as a whole was down 29.8% for the final six months, 3,780 permits below the same period in 2004.

Note to readers in Government The 5,361 unit decline likely had the employment impact of losing 13,000 jobs for the year, along with $1.4 billion in taxable property values from Clio to Ohio!


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30 years of housing say '05's quite strong

When the “Journal” had pretty much completed its survey of municipalities’ housing activity for ‘05, the reporter asked if it was a “particularly bad” year? After all, the 1,800 new single family/condo units represented a 14% decline in permits, and the lowest level since 1997.

‘97? The question shows just how short collective memories are as they relate to housing in the Flint area, because “1,800” is a level we never thought we would reach after the late ‘70s.

In the early 1970’s, with factories humming and jobs available to everyone, our industry was building 2,200 single family homes in and around Flint. But that first energy crisis, ‘73’s Oil Embargo, showed just how dependent local housing was on the auto industry. Cutbacks in auto production from declining car sales hit the area hard, and housing activity plummeted 65% from those early ‘70s to ‘74/’75. However, auto jobs and, subsequently home building, returned in the strong U.S. economy of the late ‘70’s, with local single family activity rising to 1,831 units in 1978.

But then came the recession of 1980. Michigan, (particularly the Flint area) was devastated, and starts fell 88% from ‘78 to ‘82. At that point we never expected 1,000 units again, but a surge in Metro Detroit economic activity brought a resurgence of the local market in the ‘90s.

Now, we’re stuck with a Metro economy that’s shed 190,000 jobs in 5 years, and the impact on housing is severe. But, as is evident in the 30 year history to the left, even the 1,300 starts I expect in ‘06 (let alone 2005’s 1,800) shouldn’t be considered as a “bad” year from an historical perspective.

Barry


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