February 2007

Inside Veritas -
Article 1 -
10th Annual BAMF "Exhibitors Night" opens at 4:00 p.m.
Article 2 -
Existing Housing Market Activity
Article 3 - Preliminary data suggest county slumped to just over 800 units
Article 4 - Thanks Jennifer!!! Granholm veteoed forced "Con-Ed"
Article 5 - Taxation and Finance by Rachor; Purman & Tucker CPAs
Repair or Improve? A taxing issue
Article 6 -
Ford opens 2007 as #4 "U.S." company
Association News Update
New Construction and Sales Activity
BS: Still about Nothing in particular
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10th Annual BAMF "Exhibitors Night" opens at 4:00 p.m.

One of the most successful and enjoyable evenings of the year is set for Wednesday, February 28th, as our 10th annual Exhibitors’ Night opens at its new location with thirty-six displays of building & business products and services. While the ‘07 event will be held at “Brookwood” for the first time, the overall event will remain the same as recent years, when it’s attracted an average of 240 members and guests.
In other words, our special buffet (Brats; Burgers; Pizza) will remain in order, along with complementary beverages (beer, wine & soft drinks) throughout the evening, will continue. And, if history holds true, there will be a number of incredible door prizes donated by exhibitors.
The evening begins at 4:00 p.m. and runs through 7:00. So, plan to attend on the 28th, and please RSVP by noon on Wednesday, February 21st, so we can assure enough food and drink.
Note: There were three tables (only 6 footers) remaining as of Thursday, February 8th, so there may be availability for exhibitors: Call 810-603-2200 if you’re interested.

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Existing Housing Market Activity


The preliminary year end report from the National Association of Realtors has existing home sales declining by 595,000 units (8.4%), with the annual median price rise of 1%, to $222,000. What’s interesting is the December rise in median price, after four consecutive months of prices, not only falling, but hitting below their year earlier level. We point this out because in recent months we’ve found prices are revised downward a month after being reported, but with little, if any media attention.
Thus, it’s conceivable that, at the end of February, we’ll find that December’s median price was, in fact, below December ‘05.
What’s going to be more interesting will be the Realtors’ report (expected in April) regarding the market share of 2nd (vacation and investment) homes. If, as we anticipate, the share of sales falls from the 40% range to the low-mid 30s, it would show the traditional housing (shelter) market actually held steady in ‘06, at least on a nationwide basis.
The realtors also reported the usual decline in inventory during December, down 300,000 units (7.9%). However, with lackluster sales at a rate of 6.2 million units, off nearly 8% from last December, no one’s kidding themselves by thinking sales made a dent in inventory. It’s merely that homes don’t normally go on the market during the Holiday Season.
State and Local
Well, we’ve got the year end data from the Michigan Association of Realtors, and, while the numbers may not be pretty, they could have been a lot worse.
Sales were off 13.6% across the state, and 13.4% locally. However, while prices fell 2.3% in Michigan, it was a far different story in the Southeast sector, as average price declines ranged from 2.9% in the Ann Arbor area to 11.7% in Detroit. Genesee and Macomb Counties were also hit in the 10% range.
Of course, while we may make the point that the report isn’t “pretty,” we must recall that “beauty is in the eyes of the beholder,” and many a “beholder” capitalized on the “buyers’ market” of 2006. While there were many reluctant to sell their existing homes as prices below what they thought it worth, many took advantage, understanding they would save more on the home they were buying than they’d lose on their sale. After all, a 10% saving on a $200,000 home is greater than a 10% loss on $125,000.

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Preliminary data suggest county slumped to just over 800 units

The last time Flint area housing starts hit the 800 level, we were thrilled. But that was back in 1992, and expectations have been altered dramatically.
Now that we look at comparable numbers last year, there’s little reason to cheer.
With the early sets of data in, it appears that local permits for single family and condos fell 55% last year, to right around 820 units. Although we lack confirmation on a couple of discrepancies, we find Davison Township as the leading municipality with 115 (we have been showing it down much more due to the misclassification of a condo development as apartments), followed by Grand Blanc with a total of 113, off 61.6% from its 2005 level of 294 (and 76% below its recent peak year of 465 in ‘02).
However, the biggest declines (percentage-wise) of the county’s major housing producers were in Vienna Twp. (73.8%), Burton (71%) and Mundy Twp (69%). The combined activity in the 3 municipalities fell from 431 to 127 year over year. The same communities totaled 538 homes in 2003.

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Thanks Jennifer!!! Granholm veteoed forced "Con-Ed"

Just as we were putting last month’s Veritas in the mail, we received word that legislation to force builders to take Continuing Education courses to maintain their licenses was vetoed by the Governor. As many of you know, your local Builders Association was opposed to the concept of “Con-Ed,” which was fully supported by the Michigan Association (and most locals).
Mandatory continuing education has been a priority of MAHB for 12 years. However, through 2002 it was not a realistic option because then Governor Engler refused to support an expansion of the state’s bureaucracy.
Subsequently, with term limits bringing a legislature with limited (if any) ideological integrity, MAHB was able to pass the bill on the final day of the legislative session.
Fortunately the bill was encumbered with so much junk (including 3 levels of licensed builders) it would have created a proverbial nightmare for the most die-hard bureaucrat. Consequently, the Governor provided her necessary veto.
However, though the “bullet” was dodged, it was only temporary ... the concept is already an MAHB “priority” for the current legislative session.
Now, you may ask why would a Builders’ Association want to place an additional burden on its members? Well, there’s money to be made in education, especially when mandated!

2-8-07 Wall Street Journal shows housing's predicament

Seldom do we see 3 unrelated stories in one publication that point to the same issue. But this Thursday’s “Wall Street Journal” did just that, and it clearly shows the predicament of the nation’s housing market.
A page #1 story told of HSBC Holdings’ “surprise announcement” that the capital it must set aside to cover bad debts would be $1.76 billion higher than previous estimates. The problem primarily stems from purchasing “billions of dollars in sub prime” mortgage loans from U.S. lenders which were going bad.
HSBC, the world’s third largest bank, discovered its screening method of borrowers for assessing the “default risk was flawed.” So, it finds itself with bad loans on homes that aren’t worth the outstanding debt.
Next came an article about the difficulty homeowners trying to refinance the $1.3 trillion, or so, in ARMs that face rising rates in 2007. Some are hit by prepayment penalties that would force them to come up with thousands they don’t have, while others are deterred by tighter lending practices due to falling home values.
So, as payments rise dramatically, many may find there’s no way out but to add to the growing foreclosure rate.
And, finally, an article about the “Glut of Home Supply” deterring price growth told of the 18 metro areas where inventory grew an average of 2.55% in January. What’s notable about the article is the point that “inventories of previously occupied homes typically increase in January as sellers who took their properties off the market during the holidays try to get an early start on spring.” And, as we note above, inventory did decline 7.9% across the nation in December. But it also points to the Census Bureau data showing 2.1 million homes being vacant and for sale in last year’s 4th quarter, suggesting the vacancy rate for owner occupied housing rose 35% over the past year.
When we couple the Census Data with the realtors’ report that 39.6% of all homes sold in 2005 were for investment or vacation purposes it, and the other two articles, clarify what we’ve been writing about for the past 18 months: The housing price “boom” of the early 2000s was based on artificially low costs to the buyer, and like traditional investments, is subject to severe decline.

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Taxation and Finance by Rachor; Purman & Tucker CPAs
Repair or Improve? A taxing issue

Given a choice between deducting an expense on their current year's tax return or spreading it out over several years, taxpayers, in most situations, would choose the former. So it's no surprise that taxpayers who own rental properties and commercial buildings want to distinguish currently deductible repair and maintenance expenses from amounts that must be capitalized and depreciated as property improvements.
Much To Gain
Where large sums are involved, stakes can be high. The depreciation period for residential rental property is 27.5 years. It's 39 years for a nonresidential building. Taking into account the time value of money, a taxpayer has much to gain by classifying expenditures as repair and maintenance expenses whenever the tax rules permit.
Fewer Controversies?
The repair versus improvement issue’s been a frequent source of controversy between taxpayers and the IRS. Last August, the IRS issued proposed regulations that address it. Although the regulations won't take effect until after they are finalized, they reveal current IRS thinking.
Here's a brief overview.
Bldg. construction or erection
Under the proposed regulations, amounts paid to construct or erect property are treated as production costs that have to be capitalized if the property has useful life extending substantially beyond the taxable year.
Improvements. Dollars paid to improve a unit of property must be capitalized. Proposed regulations define "improvement" as a material increase in value, which would occur when the work is performed before the unit of property is placed in service or when the amount paid:
·Ameliorates a condition or de-fect that existed before the property was acquired;
·Adapts the property to a new or different use;
·Results in a betterment or material addition to the property, or,
·Results in a material increase in capacity, productivity, efficiency, or quality of output.
Cost segregation A building and its structural components generally are considered one unit of property under regulations. But if the cost of a building component (an electrical system, for example) is segregated so that the component can be depreciated more quickly than the building itself, the component is treated as a separate unit of property in determining whether the amount spent on an overhaul results in a material increase in value, thus requiring capitalization.
Repair allowance method. At their option, taxpayers can treat most amounts paid for repairing, maintaining, or improving property as deductible costs to the extent they don't exceed a repair allowance specified for that type of property. Amounts in excess of the allowance would have to be capitalized. Certain costs would be ineligible.

 

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Ford opens 2007 as #4 "U.S." company

While auto sales got off to a rough start in general, January data may be considered a “disaster” for the U.S. industry. As total sales fell 4.6% to 1.09 million (compared to last January), GM and Ford saw sales tumble 17.5% to 410,300, just 37.6 percent of the total U.S. market, with the historical “#2” auto maker falling all the way to 4th place in sales with just 15.2% of the nation’s market share.
Of course, with Ford’s big decline (and despite Chrysler’s slight rise in sales and large jump in market share), Toyota is, at least for the 1st month, the second leading vehicle seller, after a 9.5% increase over 2006’s January rate. However, its nearly 176,000 vehicles sold barely beat Chrysler for the number two spot.
If there’s a real concern regarding last month’s sales, it could be GM. However, some analysts feel that the number “one” auto maker merely miscalculated on the impact of cutting incentives. As it turned out, GM’s “buyer incentives” were at the lowest level since April 2002, which likely had some responsibility for its lackluster sales’ activity.
Still, there was one particular item in the January report that we couldn’t help but find amazing: When we eliminate trucks and SUVs, we find Toyota’s car only sales were just 3,900 (3.75%) behind GM’s. At a time gas prices are back on the rise, that’s what may be the real story of ‘07’s sales numbers.

** Ford’s other companies had their problems as well as their “mother:” Jaguar’s down 12.9%; Volvo’s off 12% and Land Rover’s down 7%. Lions? Idle of course (after all, January’s playoff time).

Barry

Beyond Seinfeld: It’s still about "Nothing" in particular

'Vasectomy Housing' surge in New Jersey

The headline on a Bloomberg News report, “Vasectomy Housing Surges as New Jersey Tax Remedy” couldn’t help but catch our eye, imagining a plan to cut growth of welfare recipients by offering housing incentives to fathers who have vasectomies. Well, it turns out that the state’s communities are merely discouraging new traditional developments and encouraging developers who build “age- restricted” housing.
The article notes that it costs $12,567 annually, on average, to educate a New Jersey child, “the highest in the nation,” and more than double the typical property tax parents typically pay. So, communities around the “Garden State” are reluctant to add to their education burden. So, we find that more than half the housing units started in the state over the past two years have been age restricted.
As its State Builders’ Association CEO (Pat O’Keefe) said, “It’s almost a prerequisite that a project pass the child exclusion test before a planning board will even consider it.” Editor’s Note: If you want to know why it costs so much to educate a New Jersey resident, just talk to one! It’ll be immediately evident!

"Seinfeld" Brief:

Oh, the irony of political “thinking.” We now find our Governor wants to raise $100 million by extending taxes on cigarettes, liquor and death. However, she’s also offered to sign legislation that would ban smoking in bars, which is designed to have a negative impact on all three.
Of course, we’re also quite amused by her proposed 2% excise tax on Lawyers, but doubt that’s enough to drive many out of the state.

A New American Conundrum?
Ever since Alan Greenspan’s “conundrum” regarding his raising of short term rates having no impact on long term rates, we’ve loved the word. And, now Americans have a new “conundrum” as it relates to the Kick-off of NASCAR’s 2007 Nextel Cup series with the “Great American Race” at Daytona, featuring Toyota’s entry into Stock Car racing.
As the Japanese auto maker continues to beat up on its “American” competition in the market place (see page 8), it now plans to become dominant in that most “American” of sports. Recent reports suggest it’s NASCAR teams are putting so much effort into reseach and development, Ford and Chevy are claiming they’re driving the costs of participation too high. Well, Toyota countered by noting that its “Camry” is made in the U.S., while Ford’s entry (Fusion) is made in Mexico, and Chevrolet’s (Monte Carlo) is built in Canada.
So, as we watch the race this coming weekend, who’s a good “American” expected to root for: A Japanese model that’s built in the U.S.; a German model (Dodge Charger) also made in the USA; or the U.S. Company entries that are built outside the nation’s borders? In fact, this all raises another question: Who really did win World War II?

Barry

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Association News and Events
by Laura

As we noted on page one, there were only 3 tables available for Exhibitors’ Night as of Thursday, February 8th. They were all six foot tables, priced at $225 each. They may still be available when you receive this, so if you’re interested in displaying, give Laura or Tracey a call at 810-603-2200.

‘06 Inventory Clearance Promotion: A group of roughly 16 participants are meeting Thursday afternoon to finalize plans for an inventory reduction promotion for the first two weekends of March. A first event of its kind (at least locally), it will primarily consist of a television ad campaign, with web site, news print and a brochure as back-up to stimulate late winter traffic and sales, well before the normal spring promotional activities.

And, regarding those “spring promotional activities, Parade of Homes’ entry contracts were sent to builders at the end of January for the event that will open on its traditional “Mothers’ Day” weekend on Saturday, May 12th. and run through May 27th. The normal entry fee ($2,700) remains in effect for all entries received by Friday, February 23rd (additional entries by the same building company are at $1,850).
With the current conditions of the state and local housing industry, this event will be more important than ever to its participants, as the association strives to see its members getting a major share of sales in the Flint area.
Also, in conjunction with the Parade, Housing Quarterly advertising contracts were mailed to members at the beginning of the month.

 


 

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New Construction and Sales Activity

Last month we belittled reactions to November’s new home sales’ report, particularly suggestions that the higher rate of sales and climb in the median price represented a “surprising turnaround.” Well, with December’s data we found a number of notable revisions in the previous month which show just how absurd the reaction was.
Most notable was the median price. Originally reported rising 3.2% to $251,700, we now find it actually fell to $232,200, a decline of 5.1% meaning not only that the “reaction” was absurd, but the report itself was erroneous.
Preliminary year end data suggest the median price for all of 2006 was $245,300, up 1.8%. However, prices have been be-low that level each of the past 8 months. They also show sales were down 17.3%, to 1.061 million, the lowest level since the million sales’ barrier was broken in 2003.
But what we find fascinating is a look at sales during stages of construction. Sales of homes prior to beginning construction were down 27.8%; homes sold during construction were down 21.5%; sales after construction was completed, however, were up 5.7%. In other words, older inventory made up 31.4% of all sales last year, but only 24.5% of 2005’s numbers. Therefore, it’s more than likely that prices were discounted dramatically to entice buyers to take them off the market, suggesting greater than normal price distortions.
Single family housing starts were also down, though not as sharply as sales, as preliminary data show a decline of 14.7%, to 1,463,700. But much like the sales’ numbers, starts haven’t reached that level since June. So, that’s likely why we’ve seen a slight drop in inventory, even though sales numbers continued their decline. Inventory fell to an annual rate of 537,000 at the end of the year, well off its peak of 573,000 in July.
Local/Regional
As you can see in the charts to the right (and on page 1), there wasn’t much change in South-east Michigan at the years end. Housing Consultants’ reported 9,873 single family and condo units throughout the region, off 48% from ‘05 (59.5% from ‘06).
Two years ago we built 24,359 in the region worth an estimated $6.6 billion.

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