March 4, 2003

Inside Veritas -
Article 1 -8 month nightmare could soon be over with County bond resolution
Article 2 - Business News & Issues
Article 3 - MAHB’s Policy; The Irony of it All
Article 4 - Taxation and Finance - Crisis Management Plans for 2003
Article 5 - Sewer and Water Update (from pevious issue)
Association News Update From Laura
Economic Update -
Now business side showing strength
BS: Still about Nothing in particular
Housing Industry Update

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8 month nightmare could soon be over with County bond resolution

   By now, most of you have heard that this eight month nightmare may soon be over, at least temporarily. During last month’s Water and Waste Advisory Board meeting, Jeff Wright announced the Drain Commission was ready to proceed with the Western Trunk Line which would open up thousands of units of sewer capacity, and would likely lead to the ending of the moratorium on development, in effect since June 28th.
   Of course, the County Board of Commissioners must vote to allow the issuance of bonds to finance the project, which they are expected to take up at their March 11th meeting. If the vote is affirmative, it’s conceivable that the moratorium could be lifted immediately, according to a Flint Journal report on February 25th (which greatly helped the mood of attendees at Exhibitors’ Night [see below]).
   As most BAMF members are aware, the Western Trunk line is the least expensive of the $80 to $100 million in projects to be financed by the County’s Capital Improvement Fee, the subject of the lawsuit that’s responsible for the moratorium. It would run from the center of Grand Blanc into Mundy Township, but would open capacity throughout the Ragnone sewer district. Its construction would allow for the time necessary to allow the legal challenge to play out, without further damage to the Flint area’s primary growth industry.
   Continue to look for updates on the association web site at www.bamfhome.com/)

 

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Business News & Issues

   Last year we noted how the Association health premiums had risen 104% since ‘97, while the rate of inflation was up just 11.25%. Well, now we can say that premiums are up 145%, in comparison to a 13.1% rise in the cost of living since ‘97.
   That’s why we’re somewhat intrigued with an NAHB press released last month regarding the introduction of the “Small Business Health Fairness act (H.R.660),” which is designed to “reduce health care costs by giving small businesses an alternative to purchasing coverage from a large insurance carrier.” According to NAHB, “660 provides the right remedy by allowing small businesses to band together through associations to purchase health care at a lower cost.” Without giving much in the way of details, the NAHB also noted it would allow “small businesses to join together to obtain the same economies of scale, purchasing clout and administrative efficiencies that large employers have, which could reduce health insurance costs by anywhere from 15 to 30 percent.”
   The bill was introduced by more than 70 co-sponsors, including Speaker of the House, Dennis Hastert. We’ll be looking for more details and following its progress closely.

Welcome to “Burger Hell”
   As we’ve written so much about fall-ing prices in comparison to rising employment costs, we couldn’t help but take notice of the above named article in BusinessWeek. The story, about the pain at “McDonalds,” told of franchise holders’ problems with national promotions (like 2 Big Macs for a buck, or a Big N’ Tasty for $1). Often times, the costs of delivering the product is more than the ‘promo’ price.
   A Miami franchise holder explained that, since he has $1.07 in costs on a Big N’ Tasty, he still sells it for $2.25 (unless the customer personally asks for the $1 promotion). And, franchisees who once “stood in line” for the opportunity, complain their margins fell from 15% to 4%.
   What the article displayed is how the company’s world wide growth came at the expense of service to its franchise holders. And, it’s promotions were designed to increase the share of its national market, without concern for individual franchise health (Sound a bit like a national builders’ franchising corporation in DC?). Is it any wonder McDonalds’ stock is off 60% since the turn of the century? Look for the "Hamburger Hell Syndrome" to his other franchises.

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MAHB’s Policy; The Irony of it All

   There was a somewhat ironic note in last month’s publication of the MAHB Governmental Affairs Update (GANUP), focusing on the “Approaching Storm” due to the likelihood that land use will “dominate the debate” in the current legislative session. The 1-30 edition included the 13 point “MAHB Land Use Philosophy,” which included the following statement: “Fair and broad-based ways to underwrite the cost of infrastructure investments must be used, ways which complement the sense of belonging to a community, not undermine it by pitting newcomers against existing residents.”
   Of course, financing of infrastructure expansion is, perhaps, the primary issue in the sprawl debate. The anti-growth community claims new sewer and water line expenditures drain public resources, while those of us on the pro-growth side show example after example of how development more than pays its own way.
   And, from a local perspective, we can hang our proverbial hat on the County Capital Improvement Fee (CCIF), where we supported the county’s finance plan to create the sewer and water capacity that’s necessary for continued growth.
   So, upon reading the GANUP, I sarcastically e-mailed its author, “thanking the MAHB for its support of Genesee County’s position” on the CCIF. After all, it was obvious the County was in line with MAHB philosophy in solving the sewer problem.
   Well, historically, my sarcasm seldom sits well with our state association, and this instance was no exception. So, it was little surprise when I subsequently received word, through a third party, that the philosophical statement had nothing to do with the county’s situation, and had, in fact, been written “five years ago.”
   For irony’s sake: Guess who was PRESIDENT of the MAHB 5 years ago? None other than Mike Tobin, who filed the suit against the county’s “fair and broad based underwriting” of the cost of infrastructure funding.

Barry

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Taxation and Finance ---- Crisis Management Plans for 2003

   With the new year upon us, it is a very good time for for firms to ensure they have a crisis management plan in place so that the organization can recover quickly from a sudden major disruption of its business caused by an act of terror or by a natural disaster. Here are some key considerations in developing a viable plan:
1. Place responsibility for disaster recovery in a senior executive.
2. Review, evaluate and update security procedures throughout the organization.
3. Maintain an off-site list of all employee addresses, phone numbers, family contacts and other pertinent employee information.
4. Review business insurance policies for business interruption, extra expense, business income, ordinary payroll and terrorism coverage.
5. Evaluate adequacy of computer file backup procedures and off-site storage of the data.
6. Establish and practice employee evacuation procedures.
7. Provide an emergency off-premises meeting site for managerial personnel.
8. Arrange for use of alternative data processing facilities in an emergency.
9. Explore the use of wireless communication systems.
10. Arrange for the use of alternative production and administrative facilities on a temporary emergency basis.

R, P & T

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Sewer and Water Update (from previous issue)

   More than 140 members and guests attended the January 29th meeting to focus on the crisis that’s nearly 8 months old, and is now becoming a serious threat to the industry as it’s clearly interfering with plans for the nearing development and construction season. We were joined by 4 County Commissioners, the Drain Commissioner, and a delegation from the City of Burton’s administration to show its support.
   Since that meeting, there are a few items that need to be updated: First, the following Monday, Judge Neithercut set an April 15th trial date, early in the scheme of court, but not early enough to alleviate damage to the industry. Secondly, we’re continuing to work closely with County leaders to implement an immediate (temporary) solution to the problem. Any progress, or changes, will be immediately updated on the website ... www.bamfhome.com

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Beyond Seinfeld: It’s still about "Nothing" in particular

Retail Outlet Michigan’s #1 Tourist Attraction

   Stay seated Mackinaw Island! Stay home and fry your chicken Frankenmuth! The Oscar for the top tourist attraction in the state goes to a giant retail establishment that’s just north of the Ohio border!
   According to several media reports over the weekend, more than six million “tourists” went to Cabella’s Outdoors in Monroe County last year, more than two times the number that “toured” Frankenmuth, making it (Cabellas) Michigan’s “numero uno” attraction. However, this poses new problems for those claiming commercial and residential expansion threatens tourism. Often times we hear that “tourism” is the state’s 2nd largest industry. But, how does one differentiate between retail and tourism? For years we’ve seen those Canadian busses at local malls (where they spend devalued dollars for U.S. goods) and now we find a solitary retail facility is the top tourist draw. Will the anti-development minions now claim that retail employees are in the “tourism” industry? Look for that distortion in the upcoming “SPRAWL debate.

From Yacht Club found-er to “Redneck King?”

   When a “social” event hits the front page of the Sunday Journal, it’s usually so significant it’s worth a look. So this past Sunday’s article about a “Red-neck Round-Up” and “Mystery Meat Dinner,” couldn’t help but catch our eye, with featured cuisine labeled “McKinley Road Land Mines” and “sweet Moose droppings. But our real shock came at the article’s end, with the announcement of the coronation of this year’s “Red-neck King,” the ‘Rev. Horace Clapsaddle,’ AKA Tom Staley of Flushing. Could this be the same “Tom Staley,” once featured in “Michigan Builder” as leading founder of the Flushing Yacht Club?
   The annual event is sponsored by the Flint Association of Trail-er Kitchen Designers (FATKiD) and the Granny Clampett Culinary Arts’ Foundation.

Health Agents: Target for body armor sales?

   If your health agent looks like he’s putting on weight, you may want to question his attire. BAMF received a call from a “Health Agent” member telling how he, and his colleagues, received a surprising offer from the Michigan Business and Professional Association: “A special discount rate on body armor.”
   Now, we can understand a dose of paranoia in representatives of an industry that has raised rates 145% during a period of inflation rising just 13.1%. And, one has to respect the thinking of the Body Armor supplier who put the program together. Aside from the French, or possibly lawyers, who’d be easier to convince of probable danger from the American public? The cost of the Body Armor? Look for it on your '04 premiuim.

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Association News and Events by Laura

  


37 Models in Entered by February 17th .... FINAL DEADLINE Approaching
   As of the February 17th early deadline for Parade of Homes participation, there were 37 models entered in the May 10 through 25th event (more than any at the first deadline in recent years), suggesting we’re looking at another major housing promotion. What’s interesting about the entries in the ‘03 Spring Parade is, that the Fenton/Linden area is, by far, the leading venue for Parade participation. Of the 37 homes, it appears that, at least, 11 are in that Southwest section of the area (interestingly, it’s the section that’s outside the area affected by the moratorium). On the other hand, from what we know (we won’t have the exact locations of homes until March 10th), it seems that only six homes are entered in Grand Blanc, which has had at least 13 models in every spring parade since the mid ‘90s.
   Now, with the final deadline of March 10th fast approaching, it’s imperative to get Parade contracts to the association office right away ..... if you don’t have your Parade materials, but plan to participate, call 810-603-2200 immediately.
   No contract can be accepted unless received (or is at least postmarked) by March 10th!

Housing Quarterly Ads
   We’re also approaching the time that we begin laying out this spring’s edition of Housing Quarterly magazine, which is set for publication a week prior to the Parade’s opening. Although the final deadline for advertising won’t come until the end of March, it’s imperative that we know who’s taking full color ads by the second week in March (so we can make provisions for additional color pages, if necessary). So, please let us know your advertising plans by next Monday, March 10th.

General Membership Meeting
   On the heels of the strongest January turnout in years, and what most participants called the top Exhibitors’ Night ever, we’re looking forward to the March 26th General Membership meeting, at Bonaparte’s ... back to the normal meeting format with a Social Hour (sponsored by Siding World) beginning at 6:00 p.m. and the extensive hors d’oeuvre menu ... full details on the meeting in the 3/18 Veritas.



 

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Economic Update: Now business side showing strength

   Mid-February economic reports had the business sector of the economy showing renewed strength, despite the fact the American consumer “psyche” was down in the dumps. The Federal Reserve said industrial production was up 0.7% in January from the previous month’s level, the largest gain since July, and the Commerce Department noted that businesses boosted inventories by 0.6% in December. Those two reports, along with a surprisingly strong rise in non-auto retail sales, prompted a number of forecasters to conclude that the economy likely grew faster in the 4th quarter than the original estimate of 0.7%.
   So, it was hardly a surprise last Friday when the Commerce Department presented its first revision of 4th quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), revising it upward to 1.4%. And, the rise related to stronger business spending which rose at a 2.5% pace, the best rate of growth since the 3rd quarter of 2000. And, it also represented the 3rd consecutive quarter that spending on equipment and software was on the rise.
   Also, the $24.7 billion rate in the rise in inventories was more than expected, and the fastest pace since the fourth quarter of ‘00.
   However, consumer spending, which is responsible for 2/3 of the economy’s total activity, grew just 1.5%, the same as the third quarter of ‘01, which included the aftermath of 9/11, due primarily to a dramatic plunge in the rate of auto sales. Sales of vehicles and accessories fell 6.2% during the quarter, contributing to an 8.5% decline in sales of “durable goods.” (However, durable goods’ sales recovered somewhat in January, rising 3.3% for the month).

Price Levels
   Historically, a big jump in wholesale prices would be cause for major concern. So, when the Labor Department said wholesale prices jumped 1.6% in January, their biggest rise in 13 years, there was a reason for pause.
   However, with recent reports of price levels running so far behind costs, particularly in the manufacturing sector, the rise in prices of finished goods can’t be considered “all bad.” After all, we noted last month that the price level for manufactured goods was actually 1.5% lower than it was at the end of ‘02.
   At the retail level, the Consumer Price Index was up 0.4% in January, taking the rate of inflation over the past year to 2.6%, while the core rate (minus food & energy) was up 1.9% for the period.

January Spending and Income
   In line with the noted recent reports, this morning the Department of Commerce said Personal Income rose 0.3% in January, while consumer spending actually declined 0.1%. Furthermore, it noted a decline in spending on durable goods of 5.7%, which represents the biggest drop in that segment of products since February 1990.

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Housing Industry Update

Single Family Starts Hit Highest Level since ‘78

  Coming off the strongest single family housing activity in 25 years, starts soared even high-er in January, hitting beating every month since November of 1978. The rate of 1.51 million was 2.1% above the upwardly revised December level of 1.48 million, according to the Commerce Department’s February 19th report. And, it was slightly under the all time record, 1.53 million, set in December ‘77.
   While single family housing starts ended ‘02 at a modern day record level of 1.36 million, one can see from the chart to the left that activity’s been far stronger since September.

Existing Home Sales Set New Record in January
   Sales of existing single family homes rose to a new monthly record in January, breaking the 6 million unit barrier for the first time according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales activity was 3% above December’s level of 5.91 million, and 2.2% above last January’s previous record high (5.96 million).
   NAR Chief Economist, David Lereah, called the “momentum” of sales “huge,” noting how the industry had just come off a record year, then interest rates fell to a “new low” in January, further stimulating an already hot market.
   The record rate of sales (6.09 million) also brought strong growth in price levels, with the median price of an existing home rising to $160,400, up 6.7% over the past 12 months. In the Midwest, however, median prices were up just 3.6%, to $133,300, as sales activity for the region was off 2.4 from the January ‘02 level.

New Home Sales Slide from late 2002's Record Levels

   A year ago, if new home sales in January were at a 914,000 unit rate, the report would have generated stories that sales were still running at record levels. However, though the rate was the same, the media noted the 15% decline from December was the largest drop in years.
   January represented the first month since July the sales rate fell below one million units. However, the all time sales record prior to last year was just 908,000, so January’s numbers were exceptional, at least from an historical perspective.
   January’s decline was concentrated in the Midwest and South, which posted 42.2% and 13% declines (respectively) from December’s levels. (still, the Midwest’s rate of 163,000 is just 5,000 short of its all time year end high)

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