Inside Veritas -
Article 1
-8 month nightmare could soon be over with County bond resolution
Article 2
- Business News & Issues
Article 3 - MAHB’s Policy; The Irony of it All
Article 4 - Taxation and Finance - Crisis Management Plans
for 2003
Article 5 - Sewer and Water Update (from pevious
issue)
Association News Update From Laura
Economic Update - Now business
side showing strength
BS: Still about Nothing in
particular
Housing Industry Update
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8 month nightmare could soon be over with County bond resolution
   By now, most of you have heard that this eight month nightmare
may soon be over, at least temporarily. During last month’s Water and Waste
Advisory Board meeting, Jeff Wright announced the Drain Commission was ready
to proceed with the Western Trunk Line which would open up thousands of units
of sewer capacity, and would likely lead to the ending of the moratorium on
development, in effect since June 28th.
   Of course, the County Board of Commissioners must vote to allow the issuance
of bonds to finance the project, which they are expected to take up at their
March 11th meeting. If the vote is affirmative, it’s conceivable that the
moratorium could be lifted immediately, according to a Flint Journal
report on February 25th (which greatly helped the mood of attendees at Exhibitors’
Night [see below]).
   As most BAMF members are aware, the Western Trunk line is the least expensive
of the $80 to $100 million in projects to be financed by the County’s Capital
Improvement Fee, the subject of the lawsuit that’s responsible for the moratorium.
It would run from the center of Grand Blanc into Mundy Township, but would
open capacity throughout the Ragnone sewer district. Its construction would
allow for the time necessary to allow the legal challenge to play out, without
further damage to the Flint area’s primary growth industry.
   Continue to look for updates on the association web site at www.bamfhome.com/)
   Last year we noted how the Association health premiums
had risen 104% since ‘97, while the rate of inflation was up just 11.25%.
Well, now we can say that premiums are up 145%, in comparison to a 13.1% rise
in the cost of living since ‘97.
   That’s why we’re somewhat intrigued with an NAHB press released last month
regarding the introduction of the “Small Business Health Fairness act (H.R.660),”
which is designed to “reduce health care costs by giving small businesses
an alternative to purchasing coverage from a large insurance carrier.” According
to NAHB, “660 provides the right remedy by allowing small businesses to band
together through associations to purchase health care at a lower cost.” Without
giving much in the way of details, the NAHB also noted it would allow “small
businesses to join together to obtain the same economies of scale, purchasing
clout and administrative efficiencies that large employers have, which could
reduce health insurance costs by anywhere from 15 to 30 percent.”
   The bill was introduced by more than 70 co-sponsors, including Speaker of
the House, Dennis Hastert. We’ll be looking for more details and following
its progress closely.
Welcome to “Burger Hell”
   As we’ve written so much about fall-ing prices in comparison to rising
employment costs, we couldn’t help but take notice of the above named article
in BusinessWeek. The story, about the pain at “McDonalds,” told of
franchise holders’ problems with national promotions (like 2 Big Macs for
a buck, or a Big N’ Tasty for $1). Often times, the costs of delivering the
product is more than the ‘promo’ price.
   A Miami franchise holder explained that, since he has $1.07 in costs on a
Big N’ Tasty, he still sells it for $2.25 (unless the customer personally
asks for the $1 promotion). And, franchisees who once “stood in line” for
the opportunity, complain their margins fell from 15% to 4%.
   What the article displayed is how the company’s world wide growth came at
the expense of service to its franchise holders. And, it’s promotions were
designed to increase the share of its national market, without concern for
individual franchise health (Sound a bit like a national builders’ franchising
corporation in DC?). Is it any wonder McDonalds’ stock is off 60% since the
turn of the century? Look for the "Hamburger Hell Syndrome" to his
other franchises.
MAHB’s Policy; The Irony of it All
   There was a somewhat ironic note in last month’s
publication of the MAHB Governmental Affairs Update (GANUP), focusing on the
“Approaching Storm” due to the likelihood that land use will “dominate the
debate” in the current legislative session. The 1-30 edition included the
13 point “MAHB Land Use Philosophy,” which included the following statement:
“Fair and broad-based ways to underwrite the cost of infrastructure investments
must be used, ways which complement the sense of belonging to a community,
not undermine it by pitting newcomers against existing residents.”
   Of course, financing of infrastructure expansion is, perhaps, the primary
issue in the sprawl debate. The anti-growth community claims new sewer and
water line expenditures drain public resources, while those of us on the pro-growth
side show example after example of how development more than pays its own
way.
   And, from a local perspective, we can hang our proverbial hat on the County
Capital Improvement Fee (CCIF), where we supported the county’s finance plan
to create the sewer and water capacity that’s necessary for continued growth.
   So, upon reading the GANUP, I sarcastically e-mailed its author, “thanking
the MAHB for its support of Genesee County’s position” on the CCIF. After
all, it was obvious the County was in line with MAHB philosophy in solving
the sewer problem.
   Well, historically, my sarcasm seldom sits well with our state association,
and this instance was no exception. So, it was little surprise when I subsequently
received word, through a third party, that the philosophical statement had
nothing to do with the county’s situation, and had, in fact, been written
“five years ago.”
   For irony’s sake: Guess who was PRESIDENT of the MAHB 5 years
ago? None other than Mike Tobin, who filed the suit against the county’s “fair
and broad based underwriting” of the cost of infrastructure funding.
Barry
   With the new year upon us, it is a very good time for for firms
to ensure they have a crisis management plan in place so that the organization
can recover quickly from a sudden major disruption of its business caused
by an act of terror or by a natural disaster. Here are some key considerations
in developing a viable plan:
1. Place responsibility for disaster recovery in a senior executive.
2. Review, evaluate and update security procedures throughout the organization.
3. Maintain an off-site list of all employee addresses, phone numbers, family
contacts and other pertinent employee information.
4. Review business insurance policies for business interruption, extra expense,
business income, ordinary payroll and terrorism coverage.
5. Evaluate adequacy of computer file backup procedures and off-site storage
of the data.
6. Establish and practice employee evacuation procedures.
7. Provide an emergency off-premises meeting site for managerial personnel.
8. Arrange for use of alternative data processing facilities in an emergency.
9. Explore the use of wireless communication systems.
10. Arrange for the use of alternative production and administrative facilities
on a temporary emergency basis.
R, P & T
   More than 140 members and guests attended the January 29th meeting
to focus on the crisis that’s nearly 8 months old, and is now becoming a serious
threat to the industry as it’s clearly interfering with plans for the nearing
development and construction season. We were joined by 4 County Commissioners,
the Drain Commissioner, and a delegation from the City of Burton’s administration
to show its support.
   Since that meeting, there are a few items that need to be updated: First,
the following Monday, Judge Neithercut set an April 15th trial date, early
in the scheme of court, but not early enough to alleviate damage to the industry.
Secondly, we’re continuing to work closely with County leaders to implement
an immediate (temporary) solution to the problem. Any progress, or changes,
will be immediately updated on the website ... www.bamfhome.com
Beyond Seinfeld: It’s still about "Nothing"
in particular
Retail Outlet Michigan’s #1 Tourist Attraction
   Stay seated Mackinaw Island! Stay home and fry your chicken Frankenmuth!
The Oscar for the top tourist attraction in the state goes to a giant retail
establishment that’s just north of the Ohio border!
   According to several media reports over the weekend, more than six million
“tourists” went to Cabella’s Outdoors in Monroe County last year, more than
two times the number that “toured” Frankenmuth, making it (Cabellas) Michigan’s
“numero uno” attraction. However, this poses new problems for those claiming
commercial and residential expansion threatens tourism. Often times we hear
that “tourism” is the state’s 2nd largest industry. But, how does one differentiate
between retail and tourism? For years we’ve seen those Canadian busses at
local malls (where they spend devalued dollars for U.S. goods) and now we
find a solitary retail facility is the top tourist draw. Will the anti-development
minions now claim that retail employees are in the “tourism” industry? Look
for that distortion in the upcoming “SPRAWL debate.
From Yacht Club found-er to “Redneck King?”
   When a “social” event hits the front page of the Sunday Journal, it’s usually
so significant it’s worth a look. So this past Sunday’s article about a “Red-neck
Round-Up” and “Mystery Meat Dinner,” couldn’t help but catch our eye, with
featured cuisine labeled “McKinley Road Land Mines” and “sweet Moose droppings.
But our real shock came at the article’s end, with the announcement of the
coronation of this year’s “Red-neck King,” the ‘Rev. Horace Clapsaddle,’ AKA
Tom Staley of Flushing. Could this be the same “Tom Staley,” once featured
in “Michigan Builder” as leading founder of the Flushing Yacht Club?
   The annual event is sponsored by the Flint Association of Trail-er Kitchen
Designers (FATKiD) and the Granny Clampett Culinary Arts’ Foundation.
Health Agents: Target for body armor sales?
   If your health agent looks like he’s putting on weight, you may want to
question his attire. BAMF received a call from a “Health Agent” member telling
how he, and his colleagues, received a surprising offer from the Michigan
Business and Professional Association: “A special discount rate on body
armor.”
   Now, we can understand a dose of paranoia in representatives of an industry
that has raised rates 145% during a period of inflation rising just 13.1%.
And, one has to respect the thinking of the Body Armor supplier who put the
program together. Aside from the French, or possibly lawyers, who’d be easier
to convince of probable danger from the American public? The cost of the Body
Armor? Look for it on your '04 premiuim.
  
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Housing Quarterly Ads General Membership Meeting |
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Economic Update: Now business side showing strength
   Mid-February economic reports had the business sector of the economy
showing renewed strength, despite the fact the American consumer “psyche”
was down in the dumps. The Federal Reserve said industrial production was
up 0.7% in January from the previous month’s level, the largest gain since
July, and the Commerce Department noted that businesses boosted inventories
by 0.6% in December. Those two reports, along with a surprisingly strong rise
in non-auto retail sales, prompted a number of forecasters to conclude that
the economy likely grew faster in the 4th quarter than the original estimate
of 0.7%.
   So, it was hardly a surprise last Friday when the Commerce Department presented
its first revision of 4th quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), revising it
upward to 1.4%. And, the rise related to stronger business spending which
rose at a 2.5% pace, the best rate of growth since the 3rd quarter of 2000.
And, it also represented the 3rd consecutive quarter that spending on equipment
and software was on the rise.
   Also, the $24.7 billion rate in the rise in inventories was more than expected,
and the fastest pace since the fourth quarter of ‘00.
   However, consumer spending, which is responsible for 2/3 of the economy’s
total activity, grew just 1.5%, the same as the third quarter of ‘01, which
included the aftermath of 9/11, due primarily to a dramatic plunge in the
rate of auto sales. Sales of vehicles and accessories fell 6.2% during the
quarter, contributing to an 8.5% decline in sales of “durable goods.” (However,
durable goods’ sales recovered somewhat in January, rising 3.3% for the month).
Price Levels
   Historically, a big jump in wholesale prices would be cause for major concern.
So, when the Labor Department said wholesale prices jumped 1.6% in January,
their biggest rise in 13 years, there was a reason for pause.
   However, with recent reports of price levels running so far behind costs,
particularly in the manufacturing sector, the rise in prices of finished goods
can’t be considered “all bad.” After all, we noted last month that the price
level for manufactured goods was actually 1.5% lower than it was at the end
of ‘02.
   At the retail level, the Consumer Price Index was up 0.4% in January, taking
the rate of inflation over the past year to 2.6%, while the core rate (minus
food & energy) was up 1.9% for the period.
January Spending and Income
   In line with the noted recent reports, this morning the Department of Commerce
said Personal Income rose 0.3% in January, while consumer spending actually
declined 0.1%. Furthermore, it noted a decline in spending on durable goods
of 5.7%, which represents the biggest drop in that segment of products since
February 1990.
Single Family Starts Hit Highest Level since ‘78
  Coming off the strongest single family housing activity in 25 years,
starts soared even high-er in January, hitting beating every month since November
of 1978. The rate of 1.51 million was 2.1% above the upwardly revised December
level of 1.48 million, according to the Commerce Department’s February 19th
report. And, it was slightly under the all time record, 1.53 million, set
in December ‘77.
   While single family housing starts ended ‘02 at a modern day record level
of 1.36 million, one can see from the chart to the left that activity’s been
far stronger since September.
Existing Home Sales Set New Record in January
   Sales of existing single family homes rose to a new monthly record in
January, breaking the 6 million unit barrier for the first time according
to the National Association of Realtors. Sales activity was 3% above December’s
level of 5.91 million, and 2.2% above last January’s previous record high
(5.96 million).
   NAR Chief Economist, David Lereah, called the “momentum” of sales “huge,”
noting how the industry had just come off a record year, then interest rates
fell to a “new low” in January, further stimulating an already hot market.
   The record rate of sales (6.09 million) also brought strong growth in price
levels, with the median price of an existing home rising to $160,400, up 6.7%
over the past 12 months. In the Midwest, however, median prices were up just
3.6%, to $133,300, as sales activity for the region was off 2.4 from the January
‘02 level.
New Home Sales Slide from late 2002's Record Levels
   A year ago, if new home sales in January were at a 914,000 unit rate, the
report would have generated stories that sales were still running at record
levels. However, though the rate was the same, the media noted the 15% decline
from December was the largest drop in years.
   January represented the first month since July the sales rate fell below one
million units. However, the all time sales record prior to last year was just
908,000, so January’s numbers were exceptional, at least from an historical
perspective.
   January’s decline was concentrated in the Midwest and South, which posted
42.2% and 13% declines (respectively) from December’s levels. (still, the
Midwest’s rate of 163,000 is just 5,000 short of its all time year end high)