March 3 , 2006

Inside Veritas -
Article 1 -
MAHB Government Affairs V.P. to speak on 'Energy Code'
Article 2 -
Government's House Price Index Reports "Real" Story on Values?
Article 3 - Housing and Economic Briefs
Article 4 - Existing Market Activity
Article 5 - Taxation and Finance by Rachor; Purman & Tucker CPAs
Deductions for Charitable Activities
Association News Update From Laura
New Construction and Sales Activity

BS: Still about Nothing in particular
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MAHB Government Affairs V.P. to speak on 'Energy Code'

(March 1, 2006) -- Yesterday was supposed to be the first anniversary of building under a new “Energy Code” across the state. However, a lawsuit, brought by the Michigan Association of Home Builders (against the state) was successful in obtaining an injunction, thereby halting its implementation.
Over the past year the state has been joined in defense of the suit by interested parties (including environmentalists), and continual (and costly) legal maneuvering has kept the case from coming to trial.
Of course, the result has been positive for the industry as the injunction’s remained in place. So, at worst case scenario, we’ve delayed the code for more than a year.
Now, however, the MAHB is looking at the possibility of an out of court settlement that would include a new, agreeable, code that would take effect at a later date.
At the March General Membership meeting we’ll have Lee Schwartz (MAHB’s V.P. for Governmental Affairs) who will be the “point man” on all negotiations (or the continuation of the suit) as our guest. Lee will provide an update of Energy Code activities, and other governmental issues that impact the industry.
The evening will begin with an open bar and hors d’oeuvres (sponsored by KSI Kitchen & Bath) ... and, will include updates on local news and issues (including: Parade; frost laws; & building activity)

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Government's House Price Index Reports "Real" Story on Values?

The final piece of 4th quarter price data was released this morning and, from a Michigan
perspective, confirms what’s been written here for years:
“That price level shifts don’t necessarily mean a “real” shift in values.”
Yes, the House Price Index of the OFHEO confirms that Michigan homes are appreciating at a
slower rate than the rest of the nation. However, it also shows our homes continued to appreciate
in 2005, de-spite lower median and average prices. For example, in the suburban Detroit areas of
Oakland and Macomb counties, the National Associations of Builder and Realtor indexes show a
decline in price levels. But, a home in the area now called “Warren-Troy-Farming-ton Hills”
likely appreciated at a rate of 3.35% over the past year.
In other words, the homes that are selling, though lower in price than homes that sold a year
earlier, were still gaining in value. This is also evident in the Flint area, where prices declined
severely, while the value of the homes that sold rose, if only at a 2.5% rate.
But that takes us to the problem with all indexes; they’re restricted only to homes actually sold
which, by itself, distorts the market.
For example, take California, where median prices are over $550,000. Sales have plummeted
for the past 3 months, but prices were up 21% over the past year. Problem? Since few homes in
the state meet the test of “affordability,” only the highest income buyers are likely to be in the
market.
The HPI measures activity (refinance, sale, etc) on existing properties, and compares them to
previous activities on the same properties, some all the way back to 1980. That’s how it gets a
more accurate idea of appreciation that normal price indexes.
And, it found the average across the Nation was 12.9%, led by Arizona and Florida at 35% and
27% respectively.
Michigan was, once again, last, at 3.76%, with six metro areas (including Flint) in the bottom
ten (Lansing led at 5% appreciation). What may need watching, however, is that 5 of the state’s
metros had declining values in the 4th quarter.

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Housing & Economic Briefs: HOI's Michigan message

So many measures of house prices and housing affordability! In recent years we confined our
reporting (primarily) to Realtors’ Association reports and the U.S. Government’s quarterly House
Price Index, but we were happy that the NAHB brought back its Housing Opportunity Index
(HOI) back in 2004 (after a 2 year hiatus). While the HOI looks at market affordability from an
unusual perspective (the percentage of homes sold that were affordable to a median income
household), it offers median prices for Michigan’s Metro areas, which is lacking in other
reports.
The 4th quarter HOI showed us the median income household in Los Angeles could buy just
2.3% of all homes sold the area, making it the least affordable metro area in the nation; while a
median income household in Indianapolis could afford 88.7% of all homes sold there, making it
the most affordable. And, we found of all large metro areas (500,000 residents plus) Wayne
County’s third, and Grand Rapids is fourth of the most affordable group, as roughly 85% of the
homes sold in each area were “affordable.”
But, what was more notable in Michigan were the median price levels, as a rule, were flat over
the past year, while the national median jumped 16%. The graph above shows suburban Detroit,
(primarily Macomb and Oakland counties) Flint/Genesee County, and U.S. medians since the 4th
quarter of 2004.
During that period, affordability fell dramatically across the U.S. according to the HOI, from
52% to 41% of the homes sold being considered affordable. However, despite (or perhaps
because of) Michigan’s slow economy, each of the state’s metro areas experienced a higher HOI
affordability ranking in ‘05, with over 80% of the homes being “affordable.” The message?
Affordability may not always be a “good thing!”

A late February CNN web site article told of “growing concern” about an increasing number
of “cancelled new home orders” as a “sign of underlying weakness in the run in home prices.”
While the biggest factor “cited” for the rise in cancellations (in an NAHB survey) was the
inability to sell a current home, NAHB economics chief Dave Seiders told CNN the big concern
is a factor not cited in the survey: The fear cancellations are driven by Real Estate investors
intending on “flipping” the homes who now believe that market conditions make it highly
unlikely they can sell at a higher price.
If you recall, the Realtors estimated that roughly 23% of sales in ‘04 were to “investors.” So, a
flight of investors from the housing market, along with the cancellations, could actually push
prices lower in different markets.

Because of debt and lower wages, the growth of Americans net worth slowed dramatically in
the early 21st Century.
The Federal Reserve released its triennial survey of Consumer Finances in late February,
finding median net worth grew 1.5% between 2001 and 2004, based mostly on home ownership
and housing prices. But, that’s well below the three previous years, when the median soared
10.3%.
While home ownership was a plus, leading to a 22.8% rise in “Non-Financial assets,” the rest
of the report was “gloomy” at best, particularly as it relates to wages and debt.
While the median income rose 1.6%, to $43,200 during the period, median wages (which make
up the largest part of family income) actually fell 6.2% when adjusted for inflation. But, the real
“killer” was debt! The median level of debt jumped 33.9%, to $55,300, for families with debt
(76% of all families), but the median level of “mortgage debt” was at $95,000, up 27.3%.
On another note, for the first time since the Fed began these surveys in 1989, it discovered a
decline in stock ownership, as the median value of Americans’ “stock related holdings” plunged
to $24,300, or a decline of 33.8%.

Sometimes we find it hard to understand the findings of research surveys ... and, this is one of
those times! The “Tax Foundation” developed an index to note the nation’s “business friendly”
states in regard to their tax structures. Its rankings supposedly penalize states whose business tax
structure is “complex,” has high rates of unemployment tax systems, and has a high “effective
property tax rates.”
So, one can imagine our surprise when Michigan ranked right at the U.S. average as a “tax
friendly” state for 2005, with a lower business tax burden than all contiguous states, plus others
that have historically been considered lower tax states like: Kentucky; Arkansas; Utah; Kansas;
and Nebraska.
Still, one can imagine the eventual use of the Foundation’s report in arguments against any
significant SBT relief.

Here’s a shock: “Healthcare Spending eating up GDP!” A new study for the “Centers for
Medicare Services (CMS)” says healthcare spending will grow at an average rate of 7.2%
annually over the coming decade, and will consume 20% of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product
by 2015 (up from 16% in ‘04). However, that assumes the economy will grow at 5.1% during the
period.
The “good news,” if any, is that private health insurance premiums’ slowed their rate of growth
in ‘05, for the third consecutive year (but that was at a 6.8% rate).

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Existing Market Activity

In it’s monthly report on existing home sales, the NAR wrote: “sales were down in January as
prices continued to appreciate at double digit rates.” Actually, the sales rate (6.56 million) was
the 5th consecutive month of decline ... and, the lowest rate recorded since the 1st quarter of
2004.
But, what we find truly significant are recent price levels. While the $211,000 median is 11.6%
above January of 2005’s price, it’s still below the median price level in June ‘05. In other words,
prices have now gone 7 consecutive months with virtually no appreciation.
While we’ve been through a period like that (June 02-March ‘03) without a year over year price
decline, times were very different back then ...... sales were heading upward as costs (due to
falling mortgage rates) were in decline making homes affordable. Now, it’s affordability in
decline as incomes failed to keep pace with rising costs.
However, the biggest change over the past year is inventory, which is up 35.7%. And, at
January’s rate of sales, there’s a 5.3 months’ supply of homes on the market, 43% above its
January ‘05 level of 3.7 months.

Michigan Year End
As you can see below, there was a tremendous drop in real estate activity late in the year, taking
state and local sales below ‘04 levels. The fourth quarter’s sales were off 9.6% statewide, and
10.3% locally. However, the Flint area’s price level did climb slightly, rising around $750
during the three months.

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Taxation and Finance by Rachor; Purman & Tucker CPAs
Deductions for Charitable Activities

If you are a volunteer worker for a charity, you should be aware that your generosity may entitle
you to tax breaks. Although no tax deduction is allowed for the value of services you perform for
a charitable organization, some deductions are allowed for costs incurred performing the services
(though subject to deduction limits generally applied to
charitable contributions), including such items as:
* Travel expenses while performing services for a charity (out-of-pocket round-trip travel cost,
taxi fares and other transportation costs, plus lodging and meals). However, these expenses aren't
deductible if there's a significant element of “personal pleasure” associated with the travel, or if
your services involve lobbying.
* The cost of entertaining others on behalf of a charity, like wining and dining a potential
contributor (but the cost of your own entertainment/meal is not deductible).
* If you use your car while performing such services you may deduct your actual unreimbursed
expenses directly attributable, such as gas and oil costs, or you may deduct a “flat 14 cents” per
mile for charitable use of your car. In either event, you may also deduct parking fees and tolls. If
you use your vehicle in providing donated services to a charity for relief related to Hurricane
Katrina during the period of Aug. 25, ‘05 to Dec. 31, 2006, you can compute your deduction
using a standard mile-age rate equal to 70% of the business mileage rate in effect on the date of
contribution, rather than the standard mileage rate. (For expenses incurred in 2006, this "Katrina
mileage rate" is 32¢ per mile.) If you’re reimbursed for mileage as a volunteer through ‘06, you
may exclude that reimbursement (up to the standard mileage rate) from your income.
* You can deduct the cost of a uniform worn for volunteer work (as well as cleaning expense), so
long as the uniform has no general utility.
No charitable deduction is allowed for a contribution of $250 or more unless you substantiate it
by a written acknowledgment from the charitable organization. The acknowledgment generally
must include the amount of cash, a description of property that’s contributed, and whether, or
not, there was anything provided in return for your contribution.
This presents a problem where you, as a volunteer, make a contribution, “on behalf of,” rather
than “directly to,” a charity. One way around this is for the charity to pay for the expenses, itself,
and then be reimbursed by you (or you can make the donation before the expense is incurred). If
this isn't possible, you can safeguard your deductions as follows:
* Get written documentation from the charity about the nature of your volunteering activity and
the need for related expenses to be paid. For example, if you travel out of town as a volunteer, get
a letter from the charity explaining why you're needed at the out-of-town location.
* If you are out-of-pocket for substantial amounts, you should submit a statement of expenses
and, preferably, a copy of the receipts, to the charity, and arrange for the charity to acknowledge
in writing the amount of the contribution.
* You should maintain detailed records of your out-of-pocket expenses-receipts plus a written
record of the time, place, amount, and charitable purpose of the expense.

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Beyond Seinfeld: It’s still about "Nothing" in particular

There’s a new builder in Town!
If at first you don’t succeed! Martha Stewart tried to follow Donald Trump in the TV business,
but her version of the “Apprentice” failed miserably. So, she’s going after his primary business.
We learned on Monday the domestic ‘diva’ has formed an alliance with one of the nation’s
biggest builders, KB Homes, and her new designs will soon be available in Cary (NC). Next,
they open in Atlanta, Charlotte, Houston, Las Vegas, and, of course, Florida and California,
featuring “looks inspired by Martha’s personal homes.” And, to top it off, buyers will be able to
from products and design elements in a new “Martha’s Choices” line.
Rumor: The California project is anticipated on Alcatraz Island, with condo jail cells and all!

Court says "Yes" to hallucinogens
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled a New Mexico church may use hallucinogenic tea as part of its
four hour ritual intended to “connect with God.” Writing the unanimous decision, Chief Justice
John Roberts said “Federal Agents should have been barred from confiscating the ‘hoasca tea’ of
the church.” The tea contains an illegal drug known as “DMT” which is needed to “understand
God,” according to the church’s members.
We now suspect a branch of the defendant (O Centro Espirita Beneficiente Uniao do Vegetal)
will soon be opening in a neighborhood near you!

$8 million tax bill on $121,900 home
GET THIS! A house is being blamed for severe budget shortfalls in the Valparaiso (IN) area,
after a “computer glitch” raised its value from $121,900 to $400 million! Apparently the Porter
County Treasurer’s office doled out the money from the “tax” prior to its collection, since it
asked the city of Valparaiso and the School District to return a total of $3.1 million. And,
apparently the city and district budgeted the money, since it’s creating budget shortfalls for both
... We originally thought the recipients would have noticed the surprising rise in revenue. Then
again, those were public officials that received the funds.

Seinfeld Brief:
We couldn’t help but take note of a story out of London last month about “Ziggy,” an African
gray parrot. As the story goes, Chris Taylor, the bird’s owner, was sitting on a sofa with his
girlfriend in their “flat” in Leeds when Ziggy began squawking “I love you Gary.” When “Taylor
saw his girlfriend’s embarrassed reaction he realized she’d been having an affair,” right in the flat
they shared, according to the UK Press Association.

Barry

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Association News and Events
by Laura

 

There was quite a surprise for a long time BAMF staffer last month when we took a pause at
“Exhibitors’ Night” for a special presentation in honor of Laura Rutherford’s 25th year with
the association. However, the praise given Laura went well beyond longevity, as she was
recognized far more for her dedication to the building industry, its association and, most of all, its
individual members. And, with the Board of Directors surrounding her (along with a dozen
former officers), the BAMF leadership presented her with a gift in appreciation of that
“dedication.”

Parade of Homes final DEADLINE is fast approaching ... March 15th is the final deadline
for entering a home in the Spring Parade. All entries must be delivered to the association (or at least post-marked) by that day.
For the past several years we’ve had individuals attempting to enter beyond the deadline and
created a “waiting list” ..... meaning, if an entered home fails to meet doesn’t meet inspection
deadlines, the first on the list can replace. However, we’ve only had 1 situation when a waiting
listed home made it into the event.
So, if you want to participate, get with us ASAP! As of this morning (3/1) we’ve got 28
entered, along with seven verbal commitments, and several others that have indicated their intent.

 

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New Construction and Sales Activity

Sales Down; Inventory Soars
A month’s housing data hardly signifies a trend. However, as we look at January’s new home
sales, we have to take note. If sales were strong, we’d point to historically mild weather as the primary reason. However, sales fell 5% despite the weather, to an annual rate of 1.233 million, the lowest rate since January of last year.
What we can find more significant than sales’ numbers in the Commerce Department report is
its inventory data. The combination of a slower sales’ rate, plus more homes on the market, took
inventory to a 5.2 months’ supply, up 8.3% from a month earlier. However, it was up 21% in
comparison to January ‘05, at a rate of 91,000 additional units on the market.
The new home median price was up a solid 6.7% over a year earlier, which is a change from
recent months. However, a final report on the 4th quarter median price ($232,600) was virtually
identical to the first quarter’s median. When we compare the rise to existing home prices (up
13.3%), we can see the “builder advantage” we’ve been noting since December likely remains in
most U.S. Markets.

U.S. Housing Starts
One reason rising inventories was the surge in single family housing starts in January, (see chart
to the left) back above the 1.8 million unit level after falling off in December. Of course, as we
noted regarding sales, the mild January weather received much of the credit for the solid “starts”
data.
What’s notable about January’s housing report is a 24.5% rise in buildings with five units or
more over December, and a 15.1% jump over January, ‘05. We find it “notable” because of
reports of surging demand for rentals reported in several of the higher price metro areas in recent
months.

Local/Regional Activity
Despite the mild weather, ‘06 began much as ‘05 closed, with activity running way below the
year earlier level. Across southeast Michigan, permits for single family and condo units were
down 42.5% (691 units v 1202) in Housing Consultants’ monthly report, with Oakland and
Ma-comb Counties off 315 units, or 49%. Livingston County (66%) experienced the largest
decline by percent.
In Genesee County (above) it was the continuation of the past eleven months, as permits
continued to lag, well behind, the same period 12 months earlier. Over all, the county was down
25 units (36%) in comparison to January ‘05.
What was somewhat interesting was that Fenton and Richfield Townships led the county with
eight units each, as Grand Blanc’s authorities issued just 3 permits in totality.


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