March 2007

Inside Veritas -
Article 1 -
1st Ever "Inventory Clearance Sale" opened Saturday
Article 2 -
Mortgage Rate Activity
Article 3 - Despite OFHEO "Glitch," Fourth quarter data show prices falling
Article 4 - Commerce Department's "Weapons of Mass Destruction"
Article 5 - Taxation and Finance by Rachor; Purman & Tucker CPAs
Deductable Home Office Expense
Article 6 -
Jeeps & Rams with the "GM Discount?"
Association News Update
New Construction and Sales Activity
BS: Still about Nothing in particular
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1st Ever “Inventory Clearance Sale” opened Saturday

The Flint Journal called it a “Blue light special on houses” while “Art Van” threatened to sue (not really). But the association’s “Inventory Clearance Sale” that opened last weekend provided an opportunity to make the public aware of the incredible savings and benefits of purchasing a new home in early 2007.
The campaign (primarily TV, backed up with newspaper, brochures, and web site) drew 11 builders (13 models), as it stressed the current “Buyers’ Market” conditions, with lower prices and financing costs.
The 13 models boasted discounts of up to 21%, with savings as high as $70,000.
While we haven’t heard from all the participants (as of Mon-day morning) we do know the following:
1) Web site visits were up by around 200 daily since we began promoting the sale;
2) When the sale was first announced (in a TV12 interview) we began receiving calls the following morning;
3) Of the six participants we’ve had contact with since Sunday, 5 were happy with the first weekend results, and one even sold a model;
The “sale” continues through Sunday, March 11th, with models open to the public on weekends from 1:00 to 6:00 p.m. We expect to report some positive results at the General Membership meeting on March 21st.

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Mortgage Rate Activity


(3-5-07) As you can see, the “shock” that the economy grew faster than expected at the end of last year had its impact. And, as we suggested last month, rates would fall back in February (and that was without knowing growth was to be revised so far downward). But in reality, though it makes for great charts, there’s been very little movement since summer. After all, when rates fluctuate all of 0.2% over six months, there’s not much to get excited about, other than housing remains “affordable.”

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Despite OFHEO “Glitch,” Fourth quarter data show prices falling

Consider this: Home prices in the nation’s metro areas fell 2.7% from late 2005 to the same period in 2006, but the U.S. House Price Index (HPI) rose 5.87%, indicating a comparable rise in values. If you find that confusing, read on.

Throughout the period, from 2003 into ‘06, of soaring existing home prices, we explained how market conditions, particularly ridiculously low interest rates on 1 year ARMs, distorted price levels. People were buying higher priced homes, while paying far less then they would pay on a lower priced house financed conventionally. Consequently, price levels soared above the rate of real value.

Now, with tight lending practices and little difference be-tween ARMs and fixed rates, the fewer buyers in the market are taking advantage of sellers cutting prices in the current “Buyers’ Market,” meaning that, in all likelihood, real values have plunged far more than the 2.7% price level decline. So, why does the government’s HPI show values rising?

Well, much of the paradox stems from the limits of the HPI, which only deals with homes tied to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Let’s look at Florida, where sales plummeted roughly 30% last year. What we find in the “Sunshine” state is 567,000 sales over two years, while an incredible number (493,000), new homes were built.

Most of those new homes were purchased for investment and 2nd homes, never showing up on the HPI. That is, until the “investor” sold or had to refinance the home.

Thus, the first time the home showed up on the HPI (if at all) was at a devalued price in an appraisal. However, that price was still likely above ‘04 levels, as prices soared for 18 months prior to last spring.

So, while prices in Ft. Myers plummeted 11.7%, they rose 5% according to the HPI. And, while Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville prices were down a whopping 17%, their HPI was up 2.6%.

Roughly half (74) of the realtors’ metro areas experienced a decline in price levels with Sarasota (FL) showing the largest at 18%. At the opposite end of the spectrum were two a couple of polar opposites, Atlantic and Salt Lake Cities, up 26% and 22.7% respectively.

In the HPI, the top 10 were all Western towns (outside of California) with growth in prices between 16% and 22%. The bottom of the list was dominated by the Midwest and California, with 7 of the lowest twenty in Michigan (Flint ranked #273 of 282).

Perhaps the most unusual ranking was at #13 where Miami’s (FL) HPI was supposedly up 15.3% over the year. However, the Realtors’ report showed area prices down 6.2% over the same period.

Michigan remains at the bottom
The data for Michigan were far more consistent, with the state’s House Price Index remaining dead last, a position it’s held for the past year and a half. What’s troublesome is that its five-year index (2001-’06) is down to 16.5%, also lowest in the nation.

That’s a dramatic change from the beginning of the decade, when our 5-year appreciation rate was the highest in the U.S. Of the twelve metros in the HPI, only Ann Arbor and Bay City showed an increase. Jackson had the largest decline (3.9%).

Only three metros were reported by the Realtors (Detroit, Grand Rapids & Lansing) with all showing declines. But in somewhat of a surprise, it was Grand Rapids with the largest decline of 4.1%. (Note: Flint/Detroit are covered in “Housing Market Update”)

 

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Commerce Deptartment’s “Weapons of Mass Destruction”

Americans rely on their government for a variety of items: Protecting U.S. borders; Control of Air Traffic; Providing “intelligence” on individuals and nations threatening us; and Protecting pensions and benefits, to name a few.

But many of us also depend on the government to monitor economic activity to provide the data necessary to make wise business and investment decisions. Well, the government’s incompetence in the latter has again become as obvious as its incompetence in Intelligence in Iraq, Border control, or even Air Traffic Control on 9-11-01.

On January 31st the Department of Commerce released its first estimate of 4th quarter Gross Domestic Product, proclaiming the economy grew at an annual rate of 3.5%. In response, “analysts” concluded the decline in housing wasn’t having a drastic impact; the Fed clearly won’t be lowering rates this year; the performance was “remarkable;” and, of course, the “markets” reacted with stock prices and bond yields rising.

But last week, when the Department revised its estimate, we found the economy only grew at a rate of 2.2%.

In other words, “Commerce” had overestimated growth for the quarter by 59% (Note: Its housing data isn’t much better ... see pages 3 & 4).

This debacle reminded us all too much of a situation in late summer ‘02, when the Department called the “Recession of ‘01” some ten months after it ended. “Commerce” originally reported 1st quarter growth in 2001 at a “surprising 2%,” be-fore revising it downward to a rate of 1.3%. Then, roughly 16 months later, it revised growth for the quarter to a negative at -0.5% which, coupled with a minus 1.4% reading in the 3rd quarter allowed for a period of nine months of economic de-cline, also defined as “recession.” Of course, when “that recession” was called it had little impact on the nation, as the economy was already in its fourth consecutive quarter of growth which, ironically, began a mere 29 days after the 11th of September, 2001.

What’s troubling is the lack of confidence in these reports, with no alternatives to find accurate data. After all, the Department’s reports become “fact.” What’s even more troubling is that lack of consequences for those responsible for issuing them.

Consider this: If a corporation issues faulty “guidance” on its anticipated profits, the government may well begin a criminal investigation under the premise the company’s trying to manipulate stock prices. But who investigates the government?

While we can easily believe the government’s miscues are due to incompetence, not design, it’s conceivable there’s a competent public ‘servant’ out there (maybe even two) that would distort data for profit or fun. Unfortunately, since there’s no mechanism to make such a discovery, we have to accept the excuse of incompetence which is, far more than likely, the real problem.


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Taxation and Finance by Rachor; Purman & Tucker CPAs
Deductable Home Office Expense

If you use part of your residence as a "home office" to perform work-related activities, you may be entitled to claim a home office deduction on your income tax return. The deduction can be quite valuable, but rules regarding it are strict. The IRS recently reminded taxpayers about the distinction between personal and business expenses and the requirements for the deduction.

What Expenses Are Deductible?

Mortgage interest, real estate taxes, insurance, utilities, and various other expenses related to buying or renting a residence and repairing or maintaining the home usually cannot be deducted as business expenses.

Exclusive and Regular Use

Despite this general rule, you may be eligible for a deduction if you use a portion of your home as your principal place of business or as a place to meet or deal with clients, customers, or patients in the normal course of business. A deduction also may be available if your work space is located in a separate structure that is attached to your home. In any of these situations, the space must be used exclusively and regularly for business purposes.

Note that the exclusive use test does not apply to space used for the storage of inventory or product samples.

Also, if you are an employee (rather than a business owner), you have to meet additional requirements for the deduction. Your use of the home office must be for your employer's convenience, and your employer cannot rent the space from you.

Calculating the Deduction

Essentially the deduction will be based on the percentage of your home that is used for business.

Two methods are commonly used to calculate the business percentage. Under one method, the area of the home used for the business is simply divided by the home's total area.

Example. Paula, a freelance photographer, uses a 200 sq. ft. bedroom in her apartment as her office. If the apartment is 1,000 sq. ft., the business-use percentage would be 20%. Assuming Paula has met the requirements for a home office deduction, she can deduct 20% of her rent, electric bills, and renter's insurance premiums as a business expense.

The second approach divides the number of rooms used for business by the total number of rooms in the house, assuming all of them are about the same size. Thus, if a home has 10 rooms of equivalent size and one room is used as a home office, the business-use percentage would be 10%.

IRS Warning

Taxpayer compliance in this area is of concern to the IRS, and "playing by the rules" will help insure that a home office deduction can withstand IRS scrutiny.

 

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Jeeps & Rams with the "GM Discount?"

If there was any real “NEWS” in February’s auto sales’ announcements it was the “surprise” that GM’s sales rose above last February’s level (or, maybe) that Ford and Chrysler were back to their traditional ranks of #2 and #3 respectively.

However, in reality, it was the same old story: GM and Ford continue to lose market share (year to date); Chrysler’s holding at its recent level; as Toyota, Honda, and Nissan continue to capture a larger share of U.S. buyers.

What IS notable, however, is that Toyota is merely a half a percent out of holding the #2 position, and will, in all likelihood, rise to that historic height in the coming months.

The real auto news, as it will impacts regional economics, is Chrysler’s drag on its German owner, and Daimler’s admittance that it would like to sell the division. First, there was the announcement of cutting jobs and closing plants. Then came the word of “buyouts” of employees similar in nature to those carried out by Ford, GM, and Delphi.

But most notable were the musings, and apparent talks, of GM picking up Chrysler in exchange for GM stock. A decade ago the idea would have brought outrage with GM controlling an outrageous percentage of the market. But in the late 2000s, that percentage of the market would likely fall to the 35% range, not even close to what GM held on its own years ago.

Of course, there’s also talk of “Chinese” auto makers buying the division. Makes us wonder how NASCAR fans will adjust to the entry of “Godless Communism” into Nextel Cup racing?

Barry

Beyond Seinfeld: It’s still about "Nothing" in particular

Another “Vasectomy Housing” Project for New Jersey?

America’a favorite (or at least best known) developer wants to build a Wedding Chapel on his golf course in New Jersey. But, here’s the caveat: He later wants to convert it into, of all things, a mausoleum for himself and his family.

Of course, we’re talking about Donald Trump, who wants to expand the services at Trump National Golf Club to include weddings and, we assume, funerals.

The article regarding Mr. Trump’s new ambitions stated he has to gain approval from the “Bedminster Planning Board” which, we would think, should be of no problem. After all, it is in New Jersey. And, last month, we noted (in this very column) that projects must pass the “child exclusion” test to be accepted there. Thus, we’d assume a mausoleum is exactly the kind of development New Jersey Planning Boards would welcome ... even if it would house Mr. Trump for eternity.

“Seinfeld” Brief:

It’s been a couple of interesting weeks in the financial markets, so we wish someone would remind investors that Alan Greenspan is no longer “Chairman!” While giving one of his $150,000 speeches Greenspan uttered the “R” (recession) word as a possibility, and the media went crazy (and so did many investors). However, as we’ve bashed the Commerce Department’s competence (or lack thereof) throughout this issue, noting how billions were lost based on faulty information, we should probably understand why the media (and investors) still pay attention to the last bastion of Government competence remaining in the public eye.

“Chairman Mao” in Nextel Cup?

Imagine the following scenario: Kasey Kahne wins the “Michigan 400” in the proverbial “back yard” of the U.S. auto industry, then exits his Dodge Charger, begins thanking his sponsors (including the UAW), then finishes with a “quotation from Chairman Mao.” This “unbelievable” scene may not be all that far fetched with the announcement that the Chrysler Division is up for sale, and reports that Chinese auto makers have expressed interest.
Of course, as fascinating as the concept of merging Mao and NASCAR may be, think of the potential conflict of the Chinese “communists” running factories staffed by union members. Then again, we’ve got the better question: Who’s going to build homes for Chinese Execs moving to Auburn Hills?



Barry

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Association News and Events
by Laura

 

Regarding the General Membership meeting (March 21st, at Brookwood): While we don’t have the speaker set at this time (check the web site for an update), we have a number of serious industry issues, even beyond the housing market. First, there’s the serious matter of mandatory fire suppression sprinklers that could be in the next code; Then, there’s tax proposals to replace the SBT and solve the state’s “budget crisis.” This meeting will come on the heels of MAHBs “Capital Day,” where we’ll be getting a full report on where the direction the state’s likely to go.

Spring Promotional Events:

As we noted last month, Parade of Homes’ entry contracts were sent to builders at the end of January for the event that will open on its traditional “Mothers’ Day” weekend on Saturday, May 12th. and will run through May 27th. The deadline to enter is the day of the Meeting (March 21st).

With the current conditions of the state and local housing industry, this event will be more important than ever to its participants, as the association strives to see its members getting a major share of sales in the Flint area. Also, in conjunction with the Parade, Housing Quarterly advertising contracts were mailed to members at the beginning of the month.

 


 

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Updated Housing Market Activity

Existing Home Sales
While the “Realtors” reported a rise (3%) in the rate of existing home sales during January, the 6.46 million unit rate was well below January ‘06, but relatively close to the rate of all of last year. However, the bigger story was the sharp decline in median price, which was 3.1% below last January at $210,600 (see chart to the right).
What’s notable is that the decline spreads across the nation, but is biggest in the West despite that regions’ strength. What we’re seeing in the region is declining activity in California, Las Vegas and Phoenix, which offsets the tremendous price growth in Oregon, Washington, Utah and New Mexico.
The other issue, which would normally be critical, is that inventory rose by 100,000 in January. However, as we’ve often noted, inventories normally fall before the holidays and rise at the beginning of the year.

New Home Construction
Housing starts plunged during the first month of the year with single-family activity falling 39% below last January’s level. Furthermore, permits were off 30% from a year earlier, suggesting the declining numbers will continue, at least through winter.
The declines were led by the West and Midwest, where activity was down roughly 46% combined.
So, with the continued decline in housing starts, one would expect builders would be getting a handle on inventory. Well, that’s not the case according to sales data.
Sales fell to an annual rate of 937,000 during the month according to Commerce Department data, a decline of 20% from a year earlier, while inventory was reported as rising by 1,000 units. “Commerce” also reported a slight rise in t the median price, but we have to question the validity of these price reports. We could not help but notice the fluctuations in prices reported over the past few months, recalling the gigantic swings in November, first reported at “$251,700.” So, we looked at the six months from June through November (see below) and found that revisions were dramatic, but only the original estimate received much attention.
What you have below are the prices as originally reported, then revised in the year end report. As you can see, November was revised downward by nearly $20,000.
However, like nearly all “Commerce” reports, individuals make decisions based on the release. And, markets reacted when November’s data suggested the “worst” of the housing downturn had passed. (FYI: In February, the November price was revised upward to $242,000).

Regional Prices
According to the National Association of Realtors, the “Detroit” area prices (which appear to include Ann Arbor and Flint) fell 1% from the final quarter of ‘05 to the same period last year. However, they’re preliminary figures show a slight rise in the fourth quarter as compared to the third.
Those numbers are interesting as they coincide with the data from the OFHEO’s House Price Index, showing a rise in Ann Arbor and the traditional Metro area. However, the Index shows a continuation of the decline in the “Flint” metro.
What’s most troubling with the recent re-port are the five year rankings showing the Flint area’s appreciation at only 12.6% over the period and traditional “Detroit” at 11%.
In other words, according to government data that we think is on the “high side” as a rule, we find growth in regional prices fell below the rate of inflation throughout this decade, after leading the nation during the final half of the 1990s.


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