April 2007

Inside Veritas -
Article 1 -
April meeting to focus on Legal issues in building & real estate
Article 2 -
Mortgage Rate Activity
Article 3 - SEMCOG Report Forecasts 10 years of population decline
Article 4 - Saga continues: 1st quarter auto sales
Article 5 - Taxation and Finance by Rachor; Purman & Tucker CPAs
On The Rise: COL Adjustments
Article 6 -
Jeeps & Rams with the "GM Discount?"(from previous issue)
Association News Update
Housing & Economic Briefs: Inventory; Michigan 'Sub prime'
BS: Still about Nothing in particular
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April meeting to focus on Legal issues in building & real estate

There’s been all too much in the news regarding real estate and construction legal matters over the past 6 months. Liens on new homes, loss of property due to foreclosure, fraud in appraising, and municipalities’ assessment abuse are just a few of the issues making area headlines during the period.
At the April general membership meeting we’ll hear from specialists in construction and real estate law, as Chris Christenson and Craig Fiederlein
focus on current legal issues in today’s housing industry.
Chris Christenson has been an association member for the past five years, with an office on Court St. in Flint. Last year he formed a partnership with Craig Fiederlein, and they expanded there practice, adding a second office in Troy to better serve their clients operating throughout the Southeast sector of Michigan.
Chris and Craig will present an update on recent changes in construction and real estate law, then take questions from the membership on more specific issues. And, they’re also the evening’s sponsor.
Also on the April 25th agenda will be a new idea on how association members can help promote the Spring Parade of Homes, with virtually no effort, and opportunity to become involved in the fun of a one day membership drive coming in mid May.
So, don’t miss this meeting and please RSVP (603.2200).

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Mortgage Rate Activity


(4-6-07) As rates have been creeping up for the past few weeks (after the steep decline in mid to late February), there was continued confusion as to the economy’s strength, or lack thereof, with the question being “would the Fed lower rates?” (not that it would have much impact on long term rates anyway) ... Well, the “Jobs” report came in strong “Good Friday,” and the remaining stragglers (only bond traders were working) went into a frenzy, driving long term rates upward. So, look for rates to come in a bit higher in Thursday’s Freddie Mac report, likely above 6.2%.

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SEMCOG Report Forecasts 10 years of population decline

As an area that’s been virtually fully dependent on Metro Detroit for any semblance of job growth since 1979, Metro “Flint” should take note of the chilling South-east Michigan Council of Governments’ (SEMCOG) Economic outlook release last month, suggesting further decline in jobs for Metro Detroit, along with a ten year decline in population for the region.
The “economy is in the midst of a fundamental restructuring” with “serious consequences,” notes SEMCOG, due to “shrinkage of the domestic auto industry.” And, it says “auto manufacturers (who already cut 55,000 jobs in the past 5 years) will cut another 27,000 over the next 5.”
The report suggests total jobs will continue to decline through ‘09, then begin to pick up slightly the following year.
SEMCOG sees population on a decline through 2015, due to a combination of 25,000 people moving out of the area annually, combined with a lower birth rate. In fact, it doesn’t see the region recovering to its ‘05 population level until the year 2025.
There was one “bright spot” in the council’s report. It said “healthcare will add 100,000 jobs over the next decade.” However, one must question who will pay for it?
Health care costs have often been considered the auto industry’s downfall, so adding more “overhead” to the region’s health care system is hardly a plus when it comes to gaining jobs. In fact, over the past six years, health care (+ education) have seen a 15% rise in employment (according to U.S. data) while the rest of the region’s economy shed roughly 12% of its jobs.

 

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Saga continues: 1st quarter auto sales

Perhaps the “real news” on the automotive front for March was the growing number of suitors wishing to purchase Chrysler. The list includes former largest shareholder Kirk Kerkorian, who offered $4.5 billion for the troubled division (recall that Kerkorian recently purchased and sold volumes of GM stock).
Of course, there was also the eye-brow raising news that Ford paid Alan Mulally $28 million for 4 months work last year. But in retrospect, that’s a bargain in comparison to what the “Fords” paid the CEO of their “other” high profile company.
But the key to March auto sales data is the Headline that noted the “Big 3” still had over half of the U.S. market. “Over half” is now a “good thing?”
Which takes us to the auto section of a recent “Southeast Michigan Council of Governments (SEMCOG) report showing the forecast that “Big 3” market share will slip to 49.4% next year. The shows that GM, Ford and Chrysler’s combined market share held in the 70% range through ‘98, then began the continual slide toward the numbers we’ve been publishing each month. Well, three years ago Ford’s sales were 73% above Toyota’s. Now, they’re 5% above. What more needs to be said?


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Taxation and Finance by Rachor; Purman & Tucker CPAs
On The Rise: COL Adjustments

The government’s recently announced 2007 cost-of-living adjustments to the Social Security wage base and to various tax law limits of interest to retirement plan sponsors and participants. Here's a rundown:

The Social Security payroll tax will apply to up to $97,500 of earnings in 2007. All wages are subject to the Medicare tax.

Elective deferrals to 401(k) and 403(b) plans can total as much as $15,500. The limit’s $20,500 for employees age 50 or over catch-up contributions.

SIMPLE plan deferrals are now limited to $10,500 ($13,000 with catch-up contributions).

Annual additions to a participant's profit sharing or other defined contribution plan account can total up to $45,000 for 2007.

The maximum annual benefit that may be funded for a participant in a defined benefit plan is $180,000.

The maximum amount of compensation that may be considered in computing qualified plan contributions or benefits is $225,000.

 

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Jeeps & Rams with the "GM Discount?"

If there was any real “NEWS” in February’s auto sales’ announcements it was the “surprise” that GM’s sales rose above last February’s level (or, maybe) that Ford and Chrysler were back to their traditional ranks of #2 and #3 respectively.

However, in reality, it was the same old story: GM and Ford continue to lose market share (year to date); Chrysler’s holding at its recent level; as Toyota, Honda, and Nissan continue to capture a larger share of U.S. buyers.

What IS notable, however, is that Toyota is merely a half a percent out of holding the #2 position, and will, in all likelihood, rise to that historic height in the coming months.

The real auto news, as it will impacts regional economics, is Chrysler’s drag on its German owner, and Daimler’s admittance that it would like to sell the division. First, there was the announcement of cutting jobs and closing plants. Then came the word of “buyouts” of employees similar in nature to those carried out by Ford, GM, and Delphi.

But most notable were the musings, and apparent talks, of GM picking up Chrysler in exchange for GM stock. A decade ago the idea would have brought outrage with GM controlling an outrageous percentage of the market. But in the late 2000s, that percentage of the market would likely fall to the 35% range, not even close to what GM held on its own years ago.

Of course, there’s also talk of “Chinese” auto makers buying the division. Makes us wonder how NASCAR fans will adjust to the entry of “Godless Communism” into Nextel Cup racing?

Barry

Beyond Seinfeld: It’s still about "Nothing" in particular

Move over Sanjaya! America's found a "Cooler Pet"

We first saw it on “Good Morning America.” Early last week a one year old coyote walked through the open door at a downtown Chicago “Quiznos” on a warm spring day, wandered into the drink cooler, and sat while watching customers through the cooler door. Surprised customers did clear out of the restaurant, though several first took photos with their cell phones before leaving, according to a “Sun-Times” report.
By all reports, the coyote was well behaved, prior to being taken away by animal control workers (who released him later). However, the real question is why did he choose Quiznos? There must have been a Sub-Way close buy.
We would hope “Quiznos” would attempt to capitalize on the event. Perhaps a new campaign with an “American Idol” type call-in, voting for its Coyote, or “SubWay’s” Jared.

“Seinfeld” Brief:

Last June we noted the Berlin Brothel that was offering “Special Deals” to virgins, with its “sensitivity trained professionals.” Now, we find another German brothel, this one in Cologne, that introduced “reduced rates for clients aged 66 and above.”
According to a Reuters re-port, the brothel gives a 50% discount to seniors between the hours of noon and 5 p.m. each day. Noted the brothel’s managing director, “we don’t earn as much money, but we’re establishing ourselves across a broader range of age groups.”
The “senior” session costs 25 euros (tip optional?). The “Virgin” price in last year’s note was 60 euros ... Oh, the advantages of old age.

More Ford CEO Controversy
Word came out last Thursday that Alan Mulally, who re-placed William C. Ford Jr. as the CEO of Ford late last year, was paid $28 million for the 4 month period he served in that capacity during 2006. In a CNN Poll, with 36,000 respondents, 78% said the pay was inappropriate, 19% said it would be “appropriate” if he were to turn the company around.
Well, with the Ford track record, we remain skeptical. Of course, it could be a ploy to take the heat off Matt Millen prior to the NFL draft, and focus it on someone else.



Barry

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Association News and Events
by Laura

 

It’s clearly a sign of the times, as the final deadline for the Spring Parade of Homes passed, with only 21 models entered in the event. However, while well below the roughly 40 participants we’ve been averaging in recent years, we’re reminded of how impressed we were in 1991 when we received 20 entries, and had one of the best events on record.
Still, the 21 participants give us plenty of promotional dollars to promote a fantastic event. And, we’ve discovered a way to stretch the promotional impact with magnetic signs for BAMF member vehicles.
Of course, we’ll still have the normal media promotion with billboards, television and newsprint, along with the continual focus on our signage and web site.
The event opens on the traditional day before “Mothers’ Day (May 12th this year) and runs through Sunday, May 27th.

Housing Quarterly magazine will, as always, accompany the Parade, and will be mailed out on Monday, May 7th. We still have availability for Black and white ads (one page of color could be made available also) ... If interested, call the office immediately at 603.2200.

Last month we focused on association benefits at the General Membership meeting, and found that many of you are not fully aware of all that we offer. In May we’re going to hold a membership drive and are asking for participation from current members. As a lead up to the drive, we’ll be hosting a session of participants to explain and discuss these benefits in full. We’d urge all to get involved, as it may be a positive learning experience for even our current members.
Along that line: We’ll also be hosting an orientation meeting after Labor Day, with all members encouraged to attend.

 


 

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Updated Housing Market Activity

**Though we’re weeks away from the realtors’ March sales report, it was quite surprising to see data compiled by “Zip-Realty” showing the number of homes for sale in 18 metropolitan areas up 6.5% since February’s end. And, what’s even more notable is the surge in California’s largest cities, with L..A. up 12.8%, San Francisco up 12.2% and Orange County up 9.3%. These were metros that “appeared” to beat the declining prices of most U.S. regions in the fourth quarter.
The “Zip” report also showed inventory for the 18 areas was up 35% since March ‘06, led by Miami (up 61%).
From an historic perspective, inventory normally rises 1.7% from February through March. So, the March ‘07 data is particularly surprising. However, one theory suggests that owners are putting homes on the market early, since it’s taking longer to sell. If that’s correct, we won’t be sure until we see late spring data.

**The “Sub prime” situation may not be as much of a problem in Michigan than in other parts of the nation. However, it is significant in the Southeast sector.
A Wall Street Journal article last week included a map listing heavy concentrations of sub prime lending, and there’s very few Michigan areas that show 15 to 20%. Most of the heavy concentrations in that range are in California, Florida and West Pennsylvania. However, the heaviest concentrations (20 to 30%) are in Metro Los Angeles, Miami, Memphis and Washington D.C.
Flint, with the highest metropolitan concentration in Michigan, is ranked 33rd in the U.S. while Lansing and Detroit are ranked 80 and 81 respectively. However, “Detroit” is ranked second (behind Cleveland) in the highest percentage of sub-prime delinquencies (24.6%). “Flint’s” sub prime numbers are 17.1% of mortgages, 20.7% of which are “delinquent.

**While we don’t know if it‘s “good” or “bad” news (most financial markets were closed for Good Friday) but the Labor Department’s “jobs” report was much stronger than expected. U.S. payrolls grew by 180,000 during March, and were revised upward for both January and February.
Furthermore, the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, the lowest level since May 2001.
As we’ve come to expect, the employment report brought a knee-jerk reaction to the bond market (which opened that morning) with yields rising sharply under a premise that it’s less likely the Fed will cut rates soon. But it remains to be seen how other markets will respond, since they’re closed until Monday.
So, how could strong job creation be bad news for the economy. Well, the data show that one out of every six jobs added during the past six months was in “health care,” an industry that’s costing the rest of the economy drastically. And, adding overhead to the health care system at that kind of rate can only make it that much more unaffordable.

There was another “good news” and “bad news” scenario with the “Realtors” February report, showing sales were up a surprising 3.9% in comparison to January’s rate. However, they were down 3.6% compared to a year earlier, and inventory was up nearly 26% compared with 2006. Furthermore, prices fell again on a year over year basis, representing the seventh consecutive monthly decline. The median price came in at $212,800, 2.3% below February 2006’s $217,800.
However, the report’s most troubling section was the continuing rise in inventory. In a previous brief we noted the “Zip Realty” report for March (18 metro areas up 6.5%), with it massive inventory rise. The realtors’ February report showed inventory up 5.9% for the month, suggesting March data will add significantly to an already serious situation.

Michigan’s sales were relatively strong but prices continued to slide, according to the state’s “Realtors’ February report.
Across the state sales were off less than 0.5% from early 2006, but prices were off 8.23%, with an average price at $136,238. Notable declines included: Detroit (23.5%) $62,800 to $48,100; Saginaw (17%) from $107,800 to $89,500; Macomb (10.55%) - $153,500 to $137,300. Flint was down 6%, from $118,900 to $111,700.
(Note: Re: Flint area 1st quarter sales: The web site at “ChangingStreets” says Gene-see County home sales “appear to be 915. Of these, only 331 appear to be foreclosure sales.” If correct, that means sales for the month of March were just 293, down 36% from last March, taking year to date activity for Flint Area realtors down 14.4% from a year earlier. Furthermore, it also suggests that 36% of all local sales were foreclosed homes. We’ll check this one out.

New U.S. Home sales continued their decline in February, falling nearly 4% from January’s level and coming in 18.3% below February 2006. For the first two months of the year, sales are down 23.2%, however, prices are slightly up at roughly $248,500. Housing starts, on the other hand, were up substantially from January, led by a 10.3% rise in single family activity.
However, single family starts were down nearly 33% from last February, and remain more than 34% behind last year’s level on a year to date basis.
What we can find interesting is that single family starts are running at a 1.1 million unit rate for the year, an historically solid number prior to 1998 when we first broke the 1.2 million barrier.
On a regional basis, the rise for February was contained in the South and West. The East was down 14.4% while the Midwest saw activity decline 19.3%.

Locally? Unfortunately it was more of the same. The single family/condo market is off 44.5% from 2006 (which was already down 42.5% from ‘05) for the first 2 months of the year according to Housing Consultants’ data. There were just 808 permits for owner occupied homes in the whole region; a region that was building 24,000 units just a few years ago.
If there’s anything in the report that should be shocking, it’s Oakland County with 148 units authorized. The county’s activity was roughly 6,000 units in 2004.
Genesee County was down “only” 13.5% from last year’s numbers, with 90 units, over half of which were in Grand Blanc. But even in that case, a check with the building department suggests most of those were in two projects, a 12 unit condo building and 20 homes in the Del Webb retirement development off Baldwin Road.
Davison was second with 11; Mundy had 7, and Clayton Township had six.

“Baby Boomer” Housing Boom? For the past several years there’s been a barrage of articles, seminars and mailings in an attempt to sell builders and developers on getting ready to build for the 80 million or so “baby boomers” who are just beginning to reach retirement age. And, there’s also been the expression of fears that, as this generation hits its 60s, the drain on the Federal Social Security system will drive it into bankruptcy.
Well, there’s been a whole lot of other information that suggests, if you’re looking to build boomer retirement communities, forget about it. And, it may be another decade before they begin draining Social Security.
During the past two weeks, we’ve seen several media pieces on the generation, all suggesting “Baby Boomers” are far different than their predecessors. While a few differences in the studies emerge, a number of these items are universal: Though Boomers intend on retiring from their “current” jobs in their mid 60s, roughly three-quarters plan to keep working in a career change; boomers consider age 60 more like “middle age” of past generations; despite being wealthier and better educated than past generations, boomers haven’t really saved for retirement; and, roughly 2/3 believe the mental stimulation that comes from working is necessary to thrive in their later years. And, most of all, the last thing “boomers” want is to live in age restricted housing!!!!


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