April 7 , 2006

Inside Veritas -
Article 1 -
"Vegas Night" Set for April's General Membership Meeting
Article 2 -
Coming this month: The opportunity to "wager" on housing prices
Article 3 - Housing and Economic Briefs: Can taxes rise if values fall?
Article 4 - Existing Market Activity
Article 5 - Taxation and Finance by Rachor; Purman & Tucker CPAs
Look at a Simplified Employee Pension
Association News Update From Laura
New Construction and Sales Activity

BS: Still about Nothing in particular
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“Vegas Night” Set for April’s General Membership Meeting

Get ready for a special evening of fun, food, refreshment and prizes! Bring a Guest!!! BAMF will be hosting a “Las Vegas” night on Wednesday evening, April 26th.

The evening begins in usual fashion, with cocktails and hors’ d’oeuvres from 6:00 to 7:30 p.m., sponsored by Wimsatt Building Materials. However, at 7:00 o’clock the “gaming” begins, with Black-jack, craps, roulette, and even Texas hold-em!

The games will end around 8:45 p.m., and prizes will be distributed ...

So, bring your spouse ... bring a friend! The more people, the more FUN!

And, don’t forget to RSVP by April 20th! Call Tracey or Laura at 810.603.2200, or e-mail: laura@bamfhome.com or tracey@bamfhome.com.

See You on the 26th!

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Coming this month: The opportunity to “wager” on housing prices

lt’s somewhat ironic (considering our lead article) but, on March 21, a number of groups (including the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Standard & Poors) announced the “S&P CME Housing Futures & Options,” creating new financial instruments that will allow investors to speculate on the direction of housing prices.
These new options will allow the “betting” on prices for ten large markets, or the nation as a whole. In other words, an opportunity to gain from home prices without actually having to make a purchase.
In a “CNN/Money” report of the new market, Yale economist Robert Shiller (of Case-Shiller-Weiss, a partner in the venture) noted that, “of the 3 major asset classes (the bond -stock-housing markets) only housing, representing $20 trillion in assets, cannot be speculated on easily.”
While Shiller, and his partner Karl Case (whose Case Shiller Weiss index will be used as the measure), see the new opportunity primarily as a tool for large investors to reduce risks, a Mercantile Exchange spokesman said there’s a surprising “amount of interest on the part of retail consumers.”
The article noted there were “several ways,” according to Shiller, to “employ these new tools:”
Direct Investment: Buying futures in housing prices and profit if they go up; or down. (in other words, betting the “under & over”)
Lock in home equity: If you intend to sell in the near future, “go short” in on house price futures. If the price on your house drops, you can recapture the loss.
Linking the price of a home to the index: A seller could tie his house price to the index by making it a “multiple of the index for the city.” It’s sort of a “gold standard” for residential real estate.
Shiller, who’s recently been warning about the possibility of falling prices, sees the new product as fulfilling a need for hedging against volatility.

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Housing & Economic Briefs: Can taxes rise if values fall?

An early March Detroit News’ feature focused on the issue of property taxes rising higher than home values. After noting home values in the Detroit area were flat as they’re “starting to reflect the state’s struggling economy,” it pointed out that homeowners aren’t likely to “see a corresponding plateau” in their notice from their local assessor.

Why? Because Proposal “A’s” limits allow it. While growth in a home’s “taxable value” is held to the rate of inflation, it can rise to its “assessed value,” even if its assessed value during the year.

Theoretically, since 1994, the growing gap between a home’s “taxable and assessed” values has, in a way, become a virtual “savings’ account,” for the units of government that collect property taxes, shielding them from a major decline in home values.

For example, while home values rose roughly 80% since ‘95, while inflation rose around 27%. So, if a home’s assessed value was $50,000 in ‘95, it was likely in the $90,000 range last year.

However, its taxable value was likely around $63,500, leaving a $26,500 gap. If the house experienced no appreciation last year, its’ taxable value could still be raised to $65,600 [@ 3.3% inflation], and could be raised for years, despite lack of appreciation.

However, in homes that have changed hands during the 21st Century, it may not take long to eat up any “gap,” as Michigan’s homes have been appreciating at much lower rates since 2000. In fact, a home purchased in ‘04 could easily be taxed near (or, even beyond) its legitimate value, which could bring an interesting challenge.

While this isn’t a major problem for Michigan, another law to help the homeowner is causing surprising problems due to the tremendous rise in house prices in some markets. A Wall Street Journal article told of a “growing number of homeowners getting hit with an unpleasant surprise: a hefty tax bill.”

Back in 1997 a new law was expected to eliminate the capital gains tax for nearly anyone selling their primary residence, excluding $500,000 of the gain for most married couples ($250,000 for singles).

However, now that home prices have doubled in the U.S. (since ‘96) and even tripled in California, sellers across America are getting hit.

For example, if someone had a $400,000 home in California at the end of ‘96, it was likely worth $1.2 million last year. If it sold at that price, the couple would be hit with a $300,000 capital gain (after the exclusion), and a probable tax bill around $45,000.

Of course, when the half-million dollar exclusion became law the likelihood of getting hit fell on only a few. But then again, who expected over 200% appreciation in ten years, even in California?

It was much the same story for auto sales in March with GM and Ford losing market share to Chrysler and the Japanese. As total sales slumped by 46,000 vehicles or 2.9%, GM’s sales plummeted by 60,000 cars and trucks, 14.4% below March ‘04, while Ford’s sales were down 14,000, or 4.7%, taking their collective share of the market to 42.4% (the two largest American companies had over 50% of the market at this time in 2003).
For the first quarter, sales are up 1%, (41,300 vehicles) across the nation. However, GM’s down 48,000 (4.8%), and Ford sales are off 21,000 (2.8%). Chrysler continues to improve its situation (up 23,000) with its market share picking up some of the other Big 3’s decline. But Toyota and Honda continued as the “stars” of U.S. auto sales, gaining 55,000 sales over last year’s first quarter, along with additional market share of 1.4%.
Two years ago, the “Big 3’s” share of the market had dropped to 61.8%. This year it’s at 58.4%. While that’s a 3.4% decline in its total share, it’s down 5.5% from its 2004 level. The 3 major Japanese firms now hold 29% of the U.S. market, which represents a 12% gain over 2 years ago.

Some may wonder why the NAHB put out a “Legislative Alert” regarding the current attempt in Washington to come down on illegal immigrants. Well, perhaps a little note in “BusinessWeek” provides the answer: In the April 10th issue’s “upFront” page, the Magazine writes:
Jobs Americans won’t do? After farming (24%) and custodial jobs (17%), construction is the U.S. sector with the biggest percentage (14%) of illegal immigrants. Construction jobs with the highest concentration include ... Insulation workers (36%); Roofers (29%); Drywall installers and tapers (28%).”

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Existing Market Activity

Existing home sales soared in February according to National Assoc. of Realtors’ data. While homes sold at a rate of 6.9 million units, with median prices up 10.6% from a year earlier, the NAR’s release was surprisingly muted, noting how sales and price gains will soon return to more normal levels with the use of terms like “signs of stabilization” and “single digit appreciation.” However, there were no commentaries on the rising inventory, which the release showed at 3.03 million units, up 5.2% from January.

The problem: While the median price is up 10.6% from last February, it’s down 3.7% from June. And, it’s remained below June’s level for all but 2 months since. Furthermore, it declined every month since October.

And, complicating these price data are the inventory numbers (up 40% from January ‘05) and adjustable mortgage rates (up 62% from March ‘04 [3.41% to 5.5%] to present). While affordability indexes show homes re-main very “affordable,” they’re based on median incomes and conventional loans. However, in the nation’s high priced markets, homes are only affordable with lower interest ARMs, and in many cases, more ‘exotic’ programs like option and interest only loans.

In May’s issue of Housing Quarterly we look at the impact of higher rates that show interest payments rising 101% in markets with the strongest rates of appreciation, when financed with a 90% ARM at Freddie Mac’s average rate. And, that’s just from the 2004’s first quarter to ‘05’s fourth. And now, rates are up another 0.5%

When we look at the soaring inventory, and recall that many homes financed with ARMs in recent years have mortgages coming due, we can see how much more difficult is to sell a $1/2 million house today than a $400,000 home in early ‘04. So, again we point to the likelihood that median prices will actually decline on a year-year basis.

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Taxation and Finance by Rachor; Purman & Tucker CPAs
Deductions for Charitable Activities

A retirement program you may want to consider is a "simplified employee pension," or SEP.
SEPs are intended as an alternative to "qualified" retirement plans, particularly for small businesses. The relative ease of administration and the complete discretion you, as the employer, are permitted in deciding if, or not, to make annual contributions, are features that are especially attractive. Here's how these plans work.
If you don't already have a qualified retirement plan, you can set up a SEP simply by using the IRS model SEP, Form 5305-SEP. By adopting this model SEP, which doesn't have to be filed with the IRS, you will have satisfied the SEP requirements. This means that you, as the employer, will get a current income tax deduction for contributions you make on behalf of your employees. Your employees will be taxed not when the contributions are made, but at a later date when distributions are made, usually at retirement. Depending on your specific needs, an individually-designed SEP-instead of the model- may be appropriate.
When you set up a SEP for yourself and your employees, you will make these deductible contributions to each employee's IRA, called a SEP-IRA, which must be IRS-approved. The maximum amount of deductible contributions that you can make to an employee's SEP-IRA, and that he or she can exclude from income, is the lesser of: (i) 25 percent of compensation, and (ii) $42,000 (for 2005). The deduction for your contributions to employees' SEP-IRAs isn't limited by the deduction ceiling applicable to an individual's own contribution to a regular IRA. Your employees control their individual IRAs and IRA investments, earnings on which are tax-free.
There are other requirements, which you have to meet to be eligible to set up a SEP. Essentially, all regular employees must elect to participate in the program, and contributions can't discriminate in favor of the highly compensated employees. But these requirements are minor compared to the bookkeeping and other administrative burdens connected with traditional qualified pension and profit-sharing plans. The detailed records that traditional plans must maintain to comply with the complex nondiscrimination regulations aren't required for SEPs. And employers aren't required to file annual reports with IRS-Forms 5500-which, for a pension plan, could require the services of an actuary. What record-keeping is required, can be done by a trustee of the SEP-IRAs-usually a bank or mutual fund.
Another option for a business with 100 or fewer employees is a "savings incentive match plan for employees" (i.e., a "simple" plan). Under a simple plan, a "simple IRA" is established for each eligible employee, with the employer making matching contributions based on contributions elected by participating employees under a qualified salary reduction arrangement. The simple plan is subject to much less stringent requirements than traditional qualified retirement plans. Or, an employer can adopt a "simple" 401(k) plan, with similar features to a simple plan, and automatic passage of the otherwise complex nondiscrimination test for 401(k) plans.

Jeff Sabolish, CPA, CFP

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Beyond Seinfeld: It’s still about "Nothing" in particular

All Night Wal-Mart for Spring Break?


With a little ingenuity, anyone can make it to national news, and we really must give credit deserved to Skyler Bartels, the Drake (Iowa) University sophomore, who spent his Spring break (well, at least 41 hours of it) at an all night Wal-Mart in Des Moines. Bartels made it on Good Morning America and CNN’s “offbeat news” page.

While he bought meals at the in store “Subway” shop, he was only able to sleep a few hours in lawn chairs and a rest room stall. So, awfully tired (and somewhat bored we presume) he left after 41 hours, believing his experiment was a failure (he had planned to spend a week).

However, after the Des Moines register picked up on the story, a deluge of national media followed, causing Bartels changed his mind.

Now, the aspiring writer’s talked to a book agent, and has been contacted by New Line Cinema about a “movie concept,” which is sure to gain academy award consideration.

While a Wal-Mart spokesman said Bartels neither violated store policy nor broke the law, the company won’t condone what he did. As he pointed out to a reporter, the company’s a “retailer, not a hotel.”

However, with a possible movie coming, we have to wonder if Bartels’ adventure will do for Wal-Mart, what “Where the Boys Are” did for Ft. Lauderdale in the 1950s? And, with clearly the “best” all night Wal-Mart in the nation, perhaps Grand Blanc is primed to become a major “Spring Break” destination.

Seinfeld Briefs:

A former Michigan (material) girl is having a major impact on real estate prices... unfortunately, not back home, but in Rosh Pina, “an upscale village in Israel,” according to “People” magazine. Though Madonna hasn’t visited the village (yet), the magazine quotes a local real estate agent claiming, “prices have skyrocketed!”

The agent further noted, “people are dying to sell their homes to Madonna,” and we can understand: A resident said she was offered $1 million for a $500,000 home.. ...The City of Beijing instituted a fine of 50 yuan ($5) for public spitting in an effort to clean up its image for the ‘08 Olympics. It reminds us of an ideological “sister” city (Ann Arbor) initiating a $5 fine to cut(?) “pot” smoking. We’d bet Beijing has better luck.


“Seinfeld” Quote: The former president is young enough for a second act, and the commissioner’s job is, above all, politics. The nation deserves a commissioner who can truly feel the pain of Cardinals and Lions fans. A Clinton term would be worth it just to see how he would handle the Vikings’ sex scandal. (High fives, maybe?)

Sports Illustrated Football Columnist Peter King musing as to Bill Clinton’s potential as NFLcommissioner

Barry

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Association News and Events
by Laura

 

When the Spring Parade of Homes opens on the traditional “Mothers’ Day” weekend, we’ll have 44 models spread across Genesee County, after a flurry of entries on March 15th. While the Grand Blanc (11), Fenton/Linden (8), and Davison (8) areas have the largest concentrations, there are 4 each in “Flushing,” and Burton, five in “Swartz Creek,” and 2 each in the Clio and Goodrich areas.

While the event is highlighting more luxury models than usual, there are still a significant number of homes “affordably priced.”

What’s unusual about this event is that one can attend by a number of modes of transportation: seven are accessible by boat; 44 by car; and one by airplane, as there’s an entry on the new Linden air-strip.

The event runs from May 13th through the 28th, with hours noon to 6 on week-ends; 5 to 8 p.m. Thursdays and Fridays .... closed Monday through Wednesday!

Note two of last fall’s award winners on this page.

Housing Quarterly magazine should be your mailbox by May 10th, with articles about the housing industry and feature on the Parade ... If you want extra copies for distribution, call 810.603.2200


 

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New Construction and Sales Activity

Sales Down-Inventory Soars - ------Sometimes, headlined just won’t change: When sales fell to an annual rate of 1.2 million in January, it combined with the additional 8,000 units added to inventory that month to create a 5.3 months’ supply, up 10.4% in comparison to December. Well, when sales declined to a 1.08 million rate in February, it drew the new inventory level to 6.3 months.
But, the real indicator regarding inventory are data showing 102,000 more homes on the market at the end of February than a year earlier, up 22.9%.
While the decline in the sales’ rate was the highest in the past 9 years, the fact it was February may temper the severity of the decline. And, as the graph shows, sales have experienced wild swings, and changes of direction, over the past 8 months. However, inventory has been on a consistent ride upward since April ‘05, and its growth has been picking up steam since October, rising 57,000 units (11.6%) in just four months.

Housing Starts As you can to the left, single-family starts are running ahead of last year, based on January’s solid numbers. For the first two months, they’re up 2.9% from 2005’s record level. However, a segment seemingly suffering is condos, where buildings with 2 to 4 units are down dramatically. Only 4,900 have been started so far this year, down 28% from 6,800 through February 2005.

Local and Regional Before we put much emphasis on early ‘06 activity, let’s recall that early 2005’s numbers were impacted dramatically by early pulling of permits to beat the energy code that was originally set to go into effect on February 28th. So, the drastic decline is distorted by the exceptionally high level of permit activity a year ago.
However, if we compare 2006 to ‘04, we see the trend of late last year continuing, and it’s not a pretty sight, for the county, or the region as a whole.
According to data by Housing Consultants the nine Southeast Michigan counties authorized a total of 1,456 single family and condominium permits through February as compared to 2,758 in 2004 (3,138 last year), representing a decline of 47%. And, for the same period, Genesee Co. activity fell from 212 units (‘04) to 104, a decline of nearly 51%.
While all the major counties are down severely, Livingston is off by 248 units (74.3%), and Oakland’s permits fell by 365, taking them down 53.7%. While 2004 was the industry’s strongest in decades, the current decline is sobering at best.


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