May 12 , 2006

Inside Veritas -
Article 1 -
"Vegas Night" awinner; Parade opens May 13; Golf outing next
Article 2 -
Look behind the NAR verbiage and check actual price & inventory data
Article 3 - Housing and Economic Briefs: Job growth down; GDP up!
Article 4 - April Auto Sales: Toyota beats DCX
Article 5 - Taxation and Finance by Rachor; Purman & Tucker CPAs
Expensing assets: Option thru 2007
Association News Update From Laura
New Construction and Sales Activity

BS: Still about Nothing in particular
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"Vegas Night" awinner; Parade opens May 13; Golf outing next

That “special evening of fun” turned out great in April as you can tell by the group at the “Texas Hold-Em” table below. Of course, the action was hot at the Blackjack and craps tables as well as the BAMF held a “Las Vegas” night for its members for the final meeting prior to summer. We want to extend thanks to Wimsatt Building Materials for sponsoring the refreshments, and Michigan Construction Industry Mutual (MCIM) for its sponsorship of the Vegas games.

Parade of Homes
If you’ve driven on an X-Way anywhere in Genesee County over the past couple of weeks, you’re likely aware the Parade of Homes opens Saturday ......

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Look behind the NAR verbiage and check actual price & inventory data

When the National Association of Realtors released its sales’ data for March, most of the major media sources hit on “surprising” growth in the rate of sales, nearly taking the release verbatim. While there were references to the record high inventory, most focused on the NAR’s lead that “sales edged up in March following a strong rebound in February,” and the median price level up 7.6% went along with its prior assessment that price growth would moderate to single digit levels. But a look behind the verbiage (the NAR’s raw data) finds the verbiage deeply understated.

First, when we look at price data (recently revised), we’ve got a distinctly different view of growth. Reality suggests a decline in prices of 4.8% over the past ten months (with no monthly rise since October). If prices remain flat in April, the year - over - year price growth falls to 1.86%, which is virtually zero and actually negative if indexed for inflation (see chart)

Secondly, a look at inventory shows a rise far more dramatic than the release’s reference. While the 3.19 million homes on the market are up 7% from February, they’re up 39% from a year earlier. But what’s more notable is that it’s up 48.8% from January 2005.

What’s somewhat alarming is the fact that inventory’s rise over the period came at a time the number of sales soared to an “unsustainable” rate. However, there was an earlier re-lease that didn’t receive much attention that shows just how “unsustainable” 2005’s sales’level was. A year ago we were shocked to find investment and vacation homes made up “36%” of 2004’s record home sales. After all, the arguments against housing’s bursting price “bubble” maintain houses provide shelter (a necessity) while more traditional investments are primarily speculative.
So, we couldn’t help but note the NAR’s April release stating second homes were responsible for “39.9%” of last year’s record home sales (new and existing). Of the total 8.358 million homes sold last year, 1.02 million were vacation homes and 2.32 million were homes sold for investment purposes.
Whether it’s the NAR’s 39.9% last year, or the 36% a year earlier, a massive number of recent years’ record sales were for a reason other than the traditional purpose of home ownership.
So, a decline in the value of investment and vacation property would have more serious repercussions on housing markets than those anti-bubble theorists have suggested.
Ironically, the day following the NAR’s release, the Wall Street Journal published an article focusing on the decline of sales in what were, recently, the “hottest” markets in the nation, noting the decline could soon put “downward pressure on prices.” The article quoted the Florida Assoc. of Realtors stating sales were down 20% in February statewide, and 47% in Naples. Well, we checked condos in “Naples” and found 4,321, all built in 2005 -’06, listed on the market from $269,900 to $1 million, like a condo development where 800 foot units are listed from $267,000 and $325,000, and larger units from $299,900. In all, the southwest Florida city considered “most likely to experience a house price collapse,” had 13,364 homes on the market at the time, of which 9,893 were less than a year old.
By the listings, it appears there were far too many homes built in the last year for the purpose of investment, as the photos of the developments suggest few are occupied, but the number of realtors in each development suggest varied owners per unit.
Regarding state and local activity, sales were reasonably solid during the first quarter, running roughly at the rate of 2004’s 1st quarter. However, the 1,069 local sales when adjusted from a seasonal perspective, suggest homes sold at an annual rate of 5,567, meaning the supply of homes on the market at the end of April would take 13.1 months to sell at the 1st quarter sales rate.


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Housing & Economic Briefs: Job growth down; GDP up!

What is “positive” economic data? When the Labor Department reported job growth down, not only below April’s expectations, but for March and February as well, both stock and bond markets took off (they both went the opposite direction when the Commerce Dept. said the economy grew at a 4.8% rate, strongly up from 1.8% in the 1st quarter).

What was interesting about the “jobs” report was a rise in the average work week, and a larger than expected jump in hourly wages. The point is, while markets responded positively to less job growth (under the premise it would help end the Federal Re-serve’s string of rate increases), the underlying data suggest real concerns about inflation.

Anyway, the positive news for housing is the bond market response, which stopped the continuous surge in 10 year rates and, hopefully, will slow the re-cent rise in fixed rate loans.

We haven’t looked at the manufacturing report from the Institute for Supply Management in the past few months, since it’s been showing, pretty much, the same level of growth. However, the April report’s jump of more than 2 points (55.2 to 57.3) got our attention. However, finding the ‘employment sector’ showed a growth rate of 6.2% (up 3.3 to 55.8) got us wondering if there was evidence of a “manufacturing jobs’ upturn.” If you recall, the “institute” maintains that “an employment index above 48.9, over time, is consistent with an increase in BLS data on manufacturing employment.”

Well, with the possible exception of a month or two, the index has been above that level since November ‘03, when manufacturing employed 14.32 million.

The April ‘06 BLS report has manufacturing jobs at 14.25 million ... Which is why it’s been a “few months” since we reported the Institute’s findings.

Oh! and on a Michigan note:

Manufacturing jobs declined by 41,400 during that period in the “Water Wonderland.”

On a housing note, we found the California Realtors’ sales’ reports for 2006 quite enlightening. What’s amazing is the steep decline in sales, compared with the (nearly as) steep rise in the state’s price levels.

Through the first quarter, sales have declined 18.3% from ‘05’s rate of 634,100 to an ‘06 rate of 517,800, with inventory up more than 100%. The median price in March 2005 was $496,900: This March it was $561,300.

California grabs our attention as it’s been responsible for nearly 9% of the nation’s home sales while showing the lowest rate of “affordability” of any state. (14% of its households could afford a median priced home with at conventional rates in late ‘05).

Since last year’s first quarter conventional rates are up 3/4%, and ARMs, which made those half million dollar homes somewhat affordable, are up 1.5%.

Our best guess is that homes that ARE selling in the “Golden State” are actually being sold at at discounted prices to the relatively few buyers that can actually afford a California priced house....And, as you can see below, $561,000 may not buy much in that over-priced market. This 900 square foot ranch is priced at $592,000 (close to the median price of San Luis Obispo) with an “estimated payment” of $2,856 per month. We’d bet the owners would accept a $560,000 offer without blinking.
We often mock newspaper headlines in these columns for presenting a distorted view of the article that follows. Well, this past Sunday, the Flint Journal may have reached new depths.
While a front page article told of a decline in local housing activity during this year’s first quarter (compared to ‘05), it made the point (backed by the data used in the article) that sales were actually stronger than during 2004’s first quarter (which, ironically, was the biggest sales year in history).
So, what did the headline state? “Seems like no one is buying or building!” Though we’ve come to expect distorted headlines, this one was particularly annoying, coming on the weekend of the Realtors’ Home-a-rama and a week prior to the opening of the Parade of Homes.

Regarding the previous note: While first quarter activity was weak (as compared to recent years) it is in line with our previous expectations for ‘06 which suggests we’ll end the year with 1,100 to 1,200 new single family and condos. Realistically, that’s a solid level we had only hoped to experience back in the early 1990s.

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April Auto Sales: Toyota beats DCX

Total vehicle sales in the U.S. tumbled 4.2% from April ‘05, but at least one company was happy with the results. Toyota sold 15.3% of those cars and trucks, outselling Chrysler by 8,570 to become the nation’s # 3 auto company (for the month) and closed the gap on year-to-date market share to 1.1%.
Despite losing the # 3 spot, Chrysler did better than its U.S. counterparts, when its sales dropped 6.2%, as GM and Ford fell 10.7% and 6.8% respectively. And, it remained the only (semi) U.S. firm to raise its share of the nation’s market so far this year. GM and Ford are down a combined 2.2% through the first four months.
Of the major players aside from Toyota, only Honda improved its sales during the month, up 2.6% from last April.

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Taxation and Finance by Rachor; Purman & Tucker CPAs
Expensing assets: Option thru 2007
An important provision for small businesses and self-employed individuals in the recently passed American Jobs Creation Act of ‘04 is the extension through 2007 of the small business expensing provision that allows businesses to expense up to $100,000 of their assets, rather than depreciating them over several years. Here are the details.
Federal tax law provides that, in lieu of depreciation, a taxpayer with a sufficiently small amount of annual investment may elect to deduct such costs. For tax years beginning in 2003, tax legislation in 2003 increased the amount a taxpayer may deduct to $100,000 of the cost of qualifying property placed in service for the taxable year. In general, qualifying property is defined as depreciable tangible personal property (and certain computer software) that is purchased for use in the active conduct of a trade or business. The $100,000 amount is reduced (not below zero) by the amount by which the cost of qualifying property placed in service during the taxable year exceeds $400,000. The $100,000 and $400,000 amounts are indexed for inflation, making them $102,000 & $410,000 for ‘04. For ‘06 and later years, however, the $100,000 limit was scheduled to drop to $25,000.
The new law extends the $100,000 expensing limit for two more years, through 2007. It also extends for two years (1) the $400,000 amount, (2) the provision that includes certain computer software as qualifying property, and (3) a provision permitting taxpayers to revoke an expensing election on an amended return without the consent of the IRS.

Jeff Sabolish, CPA, CFP

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Beyond Seinfeld: It’s still about "Nothing" in particular

Beware: Naked Carpenter Strikes

Thought we’d heard it all until CNN reported about the carpenter who “keeps his clothes clean by working in the nude.” According to the report, Percy Honniball, a 50 year old carpenter, was arrested, then charged with indecent exposure, after his client returned home early and found him “building bookcases in the buff.”

Honniball told officers that he stripped so as not to soil his clothes. However, the report also notes that he also said “working in the nude gave him a better range of motion and that a ‘skilled craftsman’ can work clothing -and injury -- free.”

While the current case took place in Oakland, the reporter found that Honniball had been caught working naked three times in Berkeley over the past six years, and had been on probation for the offense.

While the BAMF appreciates quality craftsmanship, and always encourages members to take whatever step necessary to provide the best, we haven’t determined whether we’ll have legislation introduced to “exempt” carpenters from the indecent exposure act. However, we will raise the issue for discussion purposes at the next MAHB legislative committee meeting.

Seinfeld Update:

We know you’ve all been concerned for the fiscal well being of Anna Nicole Smith since we reported on her legal woes in January ... particularly since her U.S. Supreme Court action had her siding with the President, against the state of Texas.

Well, the Anna Nicole/Bush alliance wiped out the other side, gaining a unanimous verdict (and eventually hundreds of million we can hope).

Seinfeld Briefs:

Same old Lions: Couldn’t help but laugh when told of Lions “violation” of the NFL players agreement. Not that they violated it, but because players complained that the workouts were too tough. A number of football pundits thought the team was on the right track in hiring a no-nonsense coach like Rod Marinelli. Well, apparently the team’s veteran players feel he’s working them too hard ... so, they complained to their union. Well, if attitude really matters, you can all look for another five win season.

Anna Nicole would be proud: Ironically, in the issue reporting the results of Anna Nicole Smith-Marshall’s Court outcome, we have a reverse situation from Kuala Lumpur. We found it somewhat fascinating to read that 33 year old Muhamad Noor Che Musa married 104 year old Wook Kundor (who he felt sorry for because she was “old and childless”). But, what we found thoroughly amazing is that Muhamad became her 21st husband ... then again, that’s a reasonable average of roughly 5 years per marriage.

Last winter we told of the communications’ executive who ran up a $241,000 bill at a New York Strip Club ... Well, last week we found a story about an executive of a charitable foundation embezzling $237,000 to pay a dominatrix. Abraham Alexander, a citizen of India, was sentenced to two years spent most of the stolen funds on “Lady Sage,” a Columbus (OH) based dominatrix (and the plane tickets to see her), according to a Reuters/AP report. (Rumor: Some believe ‘Lady Sage’ doubles as the trainer for the OSU football program)

Barry

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Association News and Events
by Laura

2006 Golf Outing

Monday, August 14th
at Flushing Valley Golf Club

4 person scramble
10:30 shotgun start
Sponsored Contests
Lunch Anytime
Dinner at 4:30 p.m.
$100 per golfer
Door prizes galore

Hole Sponsorships $125 & $175

Tee Reservations beginning June 1
810-603-2200

 

..... Well, the same could be said for any one watching network television during the coming week.
The focus of the ‘06 event is the comparative ADVANTAGE of new home living from the excitement of 21st Century products and designs to low maintenance and energy costs. And, the participating models highlight those advantages far better than the spoken or written word.

Some notes on this Spring’s event:
44 models valued at $18.6 million The average value is $423,000 7 homes on the water; 1 on an airstrip 36 single family; 8 condos (2 attached)
The event runs through May 28th .... Noon to six weekends; 5 to 8 Thursdays and Fridays --

Housing Quarterly magazine is available at each model (and you’ll probably have received on by mail already). If you would like additional copies for distribution, call the association office and we’ll get them to you.


 

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New Construction and Sales Activity

Sales rise sharply but inventory continues upward .....
And, in response to February’s sales numbers, starts of single family homes slipped to an annual rate of 1.59 million in March, a 12% decline, while sales jumped above a rate of 1.2 million, which pretty much sums up the national picture on a short term basis regarding activity in the new home sector. In other words, sales and starts are solid, with starts actually running 2.2% ahead of 2005’s record rate. However, that does raise a couple of issues: First, while we’re building faster than last year’s record rate, inventory has soared 109,000 units over last April (24.4%). Secondly, prices have declined since August and are currently below their level of a year earlier. However, what’s most troubling in the March report is the sharp (6.5%) decline in the median price in just one month.
The fact that sales rose 13.8% while prices declined suggests builders were slashing to dump inventory after a weak previous month. But the jump in starts in the same month (and the corresponding inventory rise) sends a message that’s hard to decipher: What are they thinking?
The new home inventory data go right in line with the realtors’ existing home inventory data in our page #1 article, which also suggests a large number of “on the market” existing homes are actually new builds that are currently held by investors. So, the new home inventory numbers may well be way understated.

Regional/Local Activity
Things are not so complex in Southeast Michigan, where 1st quarter activity is well below re-cent levels. As you can see in the two charts (columns 3 & 4), the numbers are sharply down. At the regional level, we’re off 44.1% from the average of the previous three years. Genesee County alone is off 44.8% from the average of 2002, ‘03 & ‘04 (we ignored ‘05 because of the “energy code” distortions).
To put these data in perspective, we looked at some individual communities to compare all four previous years with 2006, and found: “Grand Blanc” averaged 90 first quarter permits in the previous years but had only 31 this year; “Fenton/Linden” averaged 68 but issued 32; Davison: 37 average, ten in ‘06; Vienna: 19 average, two in ‘06.


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