July 8, 2004

Inside Veritas -
Article 1 - “Big 3” Still Losing Market; But Find New Ways to Move Jobs
Article 2 - Notes of Interest
Article 3 - Building Homes with Robotic Labor?
Article 4 - Taxation and Finance - Audits — New IRS Audit Initiatives
Article 5 - May Auto Sales Up?
Association News Update From Laura
Economic Update -
Jobs’ data raises political concerns
BS: Still about Nothing in particular
Housing Industry Update

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“Big 3” Still Losing Market; But Find New Ways to Move Jobs

   In the midst of excitement at January’s Detroit auto show opening, General Motors was optimistic about raising it’s U.S. market share back toward the 30% level. Now, six months later, it’s share is heading in the opposite direction.
The auto industry headlines last week focused on the 2% decline in June sales. However, it was only a “decline” for GM and Ford, as the rest of the “major” players showed a rise in activity. And, if we look at the industry from a “year-to-date” perspective, we find sales up 2.3%, with only Ford lagging behind ‘03’s first half.
But from a local perspective, the danger is evident, because “Detroit” auto makers continue to lose their share of the market while Japan’s “Big 3” (Toyota, Honda, and Nissan) experience soaring growth. As the U.S. companies’ share fell by 1.8%, the 3 Japanese firms gained 2% and now share 25.7% of the American market. And, with the exception of Mazda, we have relatively few Michigan residents employed by Japanese auto makers.
But market share isn’t the only threat to U.S. jobs. Last month, in a feature titled ”Car makers set targets that force firms offshore,” the “Wall Street Journal” focused on GM and Ford using “Chinese auto-parts suppliers as a global benchmark” for prices on auto components such as, “electric-wire cables, radios, speakers, small motors, brakes, suspensions and aluminum wheels.” The companies take the cost of buying the component from China, then tell their domestic suppliers to meet it, or lose their contract.
While building components in China has obviously higher shipping costs, it’s the labor costs that give the most populous nation the advantage; and a big one at that. While China’s average wage cost is 90 cents an hour, the U.S. average is $22.50. So, it’s little wonder that U.S. imports of Chinese automobile parts rose from $200 million in ‘98 to $1 billion last year (up 400%).
The article noted that “ultimately, the only way for U.S. suppliers to match their China-based rivals, is to become more ‘Chinese’ themselves, either by moving jobs there, or by acquiring a majority of subcomponents from Chinese suppliers.” It told of Delphi saving as “much as 40% by shifting production” to Asia. And, it tells of Summit Polymers, a Kalamazoo company that is looking at buying Chinese molds, or shifting some production there.
“Wall Street” also referred to a study by Roland Berger (Strategy Consultant) claiming “133,000 jobs, or 16% of the (parts industry) labor pool disappeared over the past four years” due to higher productivity and shifting jobs to lower cost countries.” And, the same study says a "further 127,000 (18% of those that remain)" will be gone by 2010.

 

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Notes of Interest

  Coming September 30th - Mark LaLiberte One of the nation’s most inspiring lecturers, on building of energy efficient, healthy homes — brought to BAMF by Andersen Window and C&L Ward Bros. At the Holiday Inn, Thursday (9/30)

# # #

   The NAR reported existing home sales hit their second highest rate in history in April, at 6.64 million units, bring the annual rate of sales for the year to 6.31 million, or 3.5% higher than the year end record set in ‘03. April was the 10th consecutive month sales topped the Six million rate, a level never hit prior to last July.

# # #

We saw an interesting release of Agriculture Department data which, although preliminary, suggests their really isn’t much evaporation of farms or farm land in Michigan. In fact, if one believes the department, there may be a resurgence of small farms. From 1997 to 2002 the state only “lost” 246 of 53,519 “farms” (whatever is considered a “farm”). That’s a decline of less that 0.001% per year. But it shows farms 10 to 50 acres grew by 3,451 (22.6%), while farms over 2,000 acres grew by 32.4%.

  

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   Building Homes with Robotic Labor?

  An NBC “Nightly News” report June 26th featured Behrokh Khoshnevis, Professor of Industrial Engineering at Southern California, who is developing a robotic building system. The professor believes that, “by the end of 2005,” robots will be able to “construct a one-story, 2000 square foot home on site in a single day.” Khoshnevis’ robot “deposits” layers of wall, first with exterior layers, then fills the cavity with concrete or “other filler material.” Of course, we’re anxious to see the robot deal with a building inspector who "red tags" his job!

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Taxation and Finance ---- Pay Now ... or, Pay Later?

   If you've ever sold appreciated property and been paid for it over several years, you are probably familiar with the tax law's installment sale rules. They allow you to report your gain in stages, as you receive payments from the buyer, instead of reporting the whole gain in the year of sale.
The installment method usually works well from a cash flow standpoint. After all, why pay taxes today on money you haven't even received yet? But you shouldn't automatically use the installment method. Sometimes, electing to report the gain up front makes more sense.
For most individual taxpayers, the maximum tax rate on long-term capital gains is currently 15%. (Higher rates apply in some instances.) But it will return to its former level (generally 20%) after 2008. If your sale is structured so that you'll receive large payments after 2008, you could save taxes by reporting your whole gain in the year of sale.
In addition, the tax law lets you offset the year's capital gains with capital losses and include only the net amount in your taxable income. So, if you have an offsetting loss in the year you sell your property, you'll probably win the tax game if you report the whole gain on your return that year.

R, P & T

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May Auto Sales Up?

U.S. auto sales were up 3.4% last month, in comparison to May ‘03, depending on your definition of “U.S.,” as Bill Clinton might say. While the American “Big 3” had a combined rise of 2,000 vehicles, the Japanese “Big 3” (Honda, Nissan and Toyota) experienced an increase of 39,000 units. Furthermore, Korea’s “Big 3,” (Kia, Hyundai & Suzuki) saw sales up by more than 10,000 vehicles.
Of the U.S. companies, General Motors’ sales were up 2.6%, but its gain of 11,000 was offset by a Ford sales decline of the same amount. Chrysler was up the other 2,000 units (0.7%).
So, with those numbers, it’s hardly a surprise the “Big 3’s” market share continued its decline, responsible for just 58.7% of May’s sales, which was 1.6% below the May ‘03 figure. Japanese companies, on the other hand, 30.8%. And, from a year to date perspective, the “Big 3” don’t fare much better. Their collective January - April market share has fallen another 1.1% since the same period in ‘03, while the Japanese are up 1.7%, as Nissan and Toyota have experienced a combined increase of 2%. While Nissan continues the fastest growing pace (its share of the market’s up 24%), Toyota is now just 2.5% short of its bid to become the nation’s # 3 auto maker.
In looking at previous year’s data, it appears the gap between the two was 5.4% at this time in ‘02, and 3.6% a year ago. And, in comparison to the first five months of last year, Chrysler’s sales are up by 17,600 units, Toyota’s by 86,000.

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Beyond Seinfeld: It’s still about "Nothing" in particular

   Dumbest Marketing Move in Major Corporate History

  Miller Brewing thought it had a catchy idea: Attack the “King of Beers” under the premise Monarchies are “Un-American.” So, unlike Budweiser, Miller would run for “President.” But the challenge opened Miller to a counter charge that, the brewer is not only less filling, it’s less American. We learned, through Bud’s counter, Miller “can’t be President” since it’s owned by South African breweries.
So, Miller’s attempt at patriotic mockery backfired immediately. However, we think “Bud” could have struck another severe blow by reminding “American” beer drinkers that it’s ‘Nextel Cup’ car is American as “Baseball, Hot Dogs and Apple Pie!” Miller Lite’s car company is American as U-Boats and Blitzkriegs!

"Seinfeld" Briefs:

“I’m George W. Bush and I approved this message.” But did he listen to it?
Throughout the final half of June, an “optimistic” ad ran (almost continuously) stressing the economic recovery. And, its highlight was “10 consecutive months of economic growth.” Problem is, at the time, the economy had grown for ten consecutive quarters (30 months). It makes us wonder if “Bush/Cheney ‘04” and Miller Breweries share the same ad agency.
# # #
Michael v. Mel: Some predict the “Best Picture” Oscar will go to Mel Gibson for “Passion of the Christ” or Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11. If nothing else, they can compete for a special Oscar for pre-opening Hype! But we can’t help but see this contest as a war for the image of “Hollywood." Will it be Michael or Mel? At a time when we find plastic surgeons drawing a larger TV audience than most dramatic series, Michael Moore’s success may severely damage the validity of half the “reality” shows on TV ... that is, unless he becomes fodder for a male version of the “Swan,” or, at least, “Extreme Makeover.”
# # #
May brief revisited. Two months ago we questioned if a WRIF report claiming a “Girls of Home Depot” pictorial in Playboy was legit? Well, Tuesday morning the CNN web site said the pictorial is posted on Playboy .com, and included this photograph of “Rachel Parks,” who says she’s a “Supervisor” for the company (no price set on the ladder). CNN also noted that Playboy’s web editor, John Thomas, said 400 Home Depot employees answered the magazine’s “casting call.”

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Association News and Events by Laura

  

   New Members'
Applications

Saratoga Homes
Steve Arabbo
Sponsor: Larry Corbett

Wrightway Heating & Cooling
Joe Wright
Sponsor: Tim Glavin

2004 BAMF GOLF OUTING

Golf Outing’s Sold Out - as has be-come the custom, the Association’s annual golf outing, set for August 9th at Flushing Valley, sold out by the middle of June. We’ve created a waiting list in case there are cancellations — if you want on the waiting list, call the BAMF office at 810.603.2200.

Fall “Parade of Homes” contracts were mailed to prospective participants in late June. The event will open Saturday, October 9th, and run through Sunday, October 24th, with normal hours (weekends - noon to six; Thursdays and Fridays - 4 p.m. to 7p.m).
The entry fee is $2,700 ($1,850 for additional entries by the same builder). The first entry deadline is Wednesday, July 21st! After that date, the fee rises by $200 per home.
If you don’t have a contract and wish to participate, call the association office. # # #
And, along with the Parade, Housing Quarterly advertising contracts for the Fall issue were mailed July 6th, to previous and prospective advertisers.
As always, we ask those who are planning on taking full color ads to let us know of their intentions early, so we can assure accommodation.
On a special note, we’ve redesigned the editorial pages for the fall issue, and are confident it will be the most appealing issue ever. Again, if you haven’t received an HQ contract, but wish to advertise, give us a call.
# # #
The Michigan Association of Home Builders’ (MAHB) board of directors will vote on raising your dues at its summer convention next week. Currently, your MAHB dues are $61. Their leadership’s plan is to raise them to $80 which, when coupled with the final leg of the National Association’s dues increase, means you will pay a total of $230 to MAHB and NAHB...local dues would stay at $279.

 

 

 

 

 

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Economic Update: Jobs’ data raises political concerns

  This morning, a business reporter on CNBC asked what was, previously, an unthinkable question: Would George W Bush be the first president in memory to face reelection with 4 years of negative jobs’ data? The question emphasizes concerns in the investment community regarding the coming election, raising doubts about the president’s electability and fears of the alternative.
While the economy had been creating jobs at a rate of 200,000 per month, the weak June employment report had economists reeling. With a consensus of analysts forecasting roughly 250,000 new jobs, the Labor Department report showed less than half (112,000). Furthermore, the department downgraded its growth estimates for April and May by 35,000.
What we found particularly notable in the jobs’ report, was an 11,000 decline in manufacturing jobs. It was the first time since January that factories cut employment, and it comes despite the fact that the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing employment index showed growth for the 8th consecutive month.
Heading into 2004, the nation’s jobs were roughly 2.4 million short of their level when the current administration took office, and remained roughly 1.1 million short at the end of June. So, it will take the creation of 275,000 jobs per month to get back to the “break even” point by the November election.
So, as the employment concerns hit an investment community that’s fearful of a Kerry presidency, we find a proverbial “double edged sword” is evident. If the financial markets continue in their doldrums, the impact on Bush’s reelection can be fatal. Not only will he have to face an electorate with virtually no job growth throughout his term, he’ll be looking at investors who have suffered throughout thr period.
Even if we avoid comparisons of the NASDAQ index, which was victim to, what Fed Chairman Greenspan called, “irrational exuberance,” in the 1990s, we find the Dow Industrial average down 5.3% since the end of 2000, and the Standard and Poors’ 500 down a whopping 16.3% since Bush took office. So, without a substantial rally in the stock market prior to November, not only can the Kerry-Edwards team attack on the jobs’ issue, they can use equity prices to their advantage. So, investors’ concerns about the possibility of a Kerry presidency may actually make that “possibility” a probability.
Economic Notes:
Though a lower than expected rate of consumer spending is partially responsible for lower 1st quarter growth, the end of the 2nd quarter saw a big jump, as June’s data came in with an increase of 1%, well above the 0.7% forecasted.
# # #
A measure of consumer confidence hit a five month high last week. The ABC/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index rose 3 points in the week ending July 4th, meaning the index has risen 12 points in three weeks.
# # #
On June 16th the Federal Reserve reported Industrial Production surged a surprising 1.1 percent in May, the biggest rise in six years. The report was in line with the continued growth in the ISM manufacturing index.

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Housing Activity Records Abound

   As nearly everyone is aware, single family housing activity set records across the proverbial board last year, virtually smashing previous peaks. Well, through the first five months of 2004, the record pace has accelerated. In May, new homes sold at a 1.369 million unit pace, well beyond the record set in March, while existing homes reached a new record rate of 6.8 million. And single family starts were at 1.64 million, just short of last November’s pace.
The data represent the 12th consecutive month the starts’ rate was over 1.5 million, and unheard of number prior to the 21st century; the 11th consecutive month existing sales’ rates broke 6 million (sales hit 4 million for the first time in ‘96, five million in ‘99); and the 22nd time in 23 months new homes sold above the 1 million pace. But what’s most notable about the May data are the actual numbers in comparison with last year’s record pace. For example, U.S. Department of Commerce data suggest new home sales hit 554,000 January through May, 23.7% above last year’s record pace. And, single family starts are up 15.2% from ‘03’s pace, at 652,000.
As you can see in the corresponding charts, ‘04’s single family activity has beaten last year’s pace in each month (in-cluding December ‘03 v ‘02).
Local Housing
Regionally, permit authorizations for single family and condominium homes are up 17.3% from the first five months of ‘03, according to Housing Consultants. However, Genesee Co. is only 11.5% ahead, as Grand Blanc continues to lead the way with 129 units (HC now combines township and city).
However, Fenton (37), Linden (42) and Fenton Twp. (60) continue to have the most active community, at 139. Mundy (98) and Davison (85) Townships were the 2nd and 3rd leading authority, followed by Burton.
Michigan
The Commerce Department estimates single family permit authorizations at 17,175 across the state, up 11.3% from January through May of ‘03; while total permits are up 7.7% from last year’s pace.

Housing Notes: An interesting report from Fannie Mae suggests there’s a “downside” from the soaring rate of homeownership. It note the rise in “urban minority home ownership has been accompanied by an even greater surge in the number of people ‘straining’ to pay for their homes.” According to the study, 39% of black homeowners are spending at least half their income on housing, and the number of Latino homeowners with severe affordability problems nearly doubled during the 1990s.
# # #
Of course, there are some communities where homeownership can bring hardship to most buyers. The Wall Street Journal listed ten zip codes in Metro areas with a median income of $40,000, along with the average home sale price in the area. The highest price (NY 10128) was $753,000, the lowest (Phoenix 85044) is $220,000. The mid point was between Philadelphia (19106 @ $420,000) and Danvers (MA - 01923 @ 336,200).
# # #
From ‘95 to ‘01, homeowners under age 65 spent over $2,000 on home improvements annually according to Harvard’s “Joint Center for Housing Studies.” Consider the impact on real appreciation!

  

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