August 4, 2005

Inside Veritas -
Article 1 -
Contrary thoughts on the Kelo v. New London Ruling
Article 2 -
What about those record July auto sales and “employee” pricing?
Article 3 - Existing Market Activity
Article 4 - Mortgage Rate Activity
Article 5 -
Taxation and Finance by Rachor; Purman & Tucker CPAs
Taking your spouse on a business trip
Association News Update From Laura
Economic Update -
A manufacturing upswing?
BS: Still about Nothing in particular
Housing Industry Update
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Contrary thoughts on the Kelo v. New London Ruling

For the past six weeks I’ve been hit with a barrage of e-mails and articles attacking the recent Supreme Court ruling in “Kelo v New London.” While it’s been accepted practice that governments can use the concept of “Eminent Domain” to condemn property so it can be used for the public good (highways, schools, etc), the majority in the Kelo decision said that an economic development purpose, even if it’s not to be publicly owned, can qualify for “public good,” and eminent domain can be used as a tool to accommodate that purpose. So, for example, in an economically deprived area, job creation is in the “public good,” and “eminent domain” can be used to acquire land to build (perhaps) a Toyota plant. In other words, the court recognized something our industry’s been preaching for (at least) three decades — economic growth is in the “public good.”

What’s amazing (to me) has been the reaction against the ruling running across the political spectrum, and from groups like NAHB. The far right, understandably, calls it a violation of basic property rights. The far left claims it’s designed to drive poor people from their homes, also understandable in 21st Century paranoid terms. But, what about groups like NAHB?

Using the NAHB’s data on the impact of housing, I’ve stressed the public value of housing development to hundreds of government officials over the years. Now, the highest court in the land agrees that development serves the “public good.” Yet the organization that promotes growth and development is opposed. I don’t get it!

What You Think!

Tell us your thoughts on this matter. Call Barry at 603.2200, or e-mail him at barry@bamfhome.com

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What about those record July auto sales and “employee” pricing?

When America’s auto makers released their July sales’ reports at the beginning of the month, there was little surprise when the record numbers were announced, and “employee pricing” was given credit. GM’s sales were 15.2% above July 2004, which was minor in comparison to Ford (+28.5%) and Daimler/Chrysler’s (+25.1%) rise over the same period.

However, without “employee discounts,” Toyota, Honda and Nissan experienced rises in sales of 8.1% to 15%, helping to bring July sales to an all time record of 1.81 million (beating the record set in Oct. ‘01 when GM began the 0% interest post 9/11 program).

When GM began its “employee pricing to all” program, industry analysts warned that it would be damaging to its, already precarious, bottom line. And, as Ford and Chrysler followed suit, the same concerns were expressed for the U.S. industry as a whole.

However, what those analysts, perhaps, failed to understand is that the “employee price” fluctuates due to market conditions, just like normal pricing. So, it was conceivable that employee pricing was no different than other recent sales’ gimmicks.

Interestingly enough, we checked a few models’ “employee price” before and after the new programs and, while not scientific, they suggest the new deal may have been

more beneficial to the companies than the buyer. For example, we found a Cadillac lease that climbed about $82 per month; a Jeep 4x4 with a $3,000 (18.9%) price increase; and a Chrysler lease that virtually doubled. So, when third quarter profits (or losses) for U.S. auto makers are released in fall, don’t be shocked if the earnings’ far surpass analysts’ estimates.

With that said, you can see by the chart to the right have made little dent in the con- tinued loss of market share on a y-t-d basis for the U.S. companies. While the “Big 3” may have taken 63.6% of July’s share, they are down 0.4% for the year (1.5% from ‘03) while Toyota, Honda, and Nissan are up 1.1% (3% from ‘03).

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Existing Market Activity

After skipping a month, a new record was once again set for sales of existing homes, which sold at a 7.33 million unit rate in June and, yada-yada-yada, the median price jumped 14.7% to $219,000 since June ‘04.

Michigan & Metro Flint

As with the nation as a whole, state and local homes are selling at a record pace. However, unlike the U.S., not at record in- creases in price levels.

Michigan, which shows average (rather than median) prices has experienced an increase of just 1.2% in comparison to the first half of 2004, while the Flint area’s actually showing continuation of declining prices (down 4% since ‘04; 12.8% since ‘03).

Local Inventory

However, the big issue at the local level has been inventory, with roughly 5,600 homes on the market at any given time. To put it all in perspective, we created a seasonally adjusted sales’ rate from 3 years of data, and found homes were selling at a rate of 6,430 during the 2nd quarter. At that rate of sales there are currently 10.3 months’ inventory on the market ... nationally the supply’s 4.3 months’ inventory.

 

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Mortgage Rate Activity (From July 7, 2005 issue)

Another month; another Federal Reserve rate hike; and lower 30 year fixed mortgage rates ... in other words, nothing’s really changed since we went against conventional wisdom in March, stating we don’t think the bond market believes the economy’s strong enough to support inflation, and long term rates remain low. However, we can anticipate slight upward movement (5.6% range) when Freddie Mac reports later this (Thursday) afternoon ...

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Taxation and Finance by Rachor; Purman & Tucker CPAs
Taking your spouse on a business trip



You may be expecting to take a business trip in the near future and were interested in whether you can deduct the costs of having your spouse accompany you.

The rules for deducting a spouse's travel costs are very restrictive. First of all, to qualify, your spouse must be your employee. This means you can't deduct the travel costs of a spouse, even if his or her presence has a bonafide business purpose, unless the spouse is a bona fide employee of your business. This requirement prevents deductibility in most cases.

If your spouse is your employee, then you can deduct his/her travel costs if the presence on the trip serves a bona fide business purpose. Merely having your spouse perform some incidental business service isn't enough to establish “business purpose.” In general, it isn't sufficient for her presence to be "helpful" to business pursuits-it must be "necessary."

In most cases, a spouse's participation in social functions isn't enough to establish a business purpose. That is, if her purpose is to establish general goodwill for customers or associates, this is usually insufficient. Further, if there is a vacation element to the trip (sight seeing, etc.), it will be more difficult to establish a business purpose for her presence.

On the otherhand, a bona fide business purpose exists where your spouse's presence is necessary to care for a serious medical condition that you have. If your spouse's travel satisfies these tests, the normal deductions for business travel away from home can be claimed. These include the costs of transportation, meals, lodging, and incidental costs such as dry cleaning,phone calls, etc.

Even if a spouse's travel doesn't satisfy the requirements, you may still be able to deduct a substantial portion of the trip's costs. This is because the rules don't require you to allocate 50% of costs to your spouse. You need only allocate to her any additional costs you incur. For example, in many hotels the cost of a single room isn't much lower than the cost of a double. If a single costs $150 a night while a double costs you $200, the disallowed portion of the cost allocable to your spouse would be $50. And if you drive your own car or rent a car, the cost will be fully deductible. Of course, if public transportation is used, and for meals, any separate costs incurred by your spouse wouldn't be deductible.



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Beyond Seinfeld: It’s still about "Nothing" in particular

“Dawgs” who mess with “Gators” get BIT


There’s a new hero in the continued “property rights” struggle. Daryl Cook is a Florida “Gator,” with three pigs, several goats, and a rooster named “Spurrier” (though we expect a crowing “Meyer” by mid fall), angering his Georgia “Dawg” neighbors in that “way upscale” Atlanta suburb of Dunwoody.

Cook, a 45 year old civil engineer (U of Fla grad) lives on a large lot in an area where most homes are over $1 million. However, while the land around him is zoned residential, his is zoned for agriculture. When he tried to get his lot rezoned to build two homes, his neighbors objected. So, despite a favorable recommendation from planning staff, the county’s planning commission caved in when confronted by a mass of neighbors, supported by the “Dunwoody Homeowners’ Association (arguing the Master plan called for 1 house per acre on Cook’s property). Of course, most lots nearby, including a new subdivision next door, are much smaller.

So Cook, who calls himself a “sore loser,” decided if agriculture is what they want, agriculture’s what they’ll get!

First, he spray painted his house in his alma mater’s colors, and dubbed his homestead the “Swamp,” after the nickname for the U-F football stadium (where historically, Gators have devoured their UGA Dawg’ rivals).

Next, he bought the farm animals and began cutting trees, posting signs offering “Free Firewood.” And soon, he expects to plant wax beans, corn and squash.

The remedy for these now “anti farm” neighbors? Drop their objections to Cook’s rezoning.

Note: Special thanks to ABC (Good Morning America) for bringing this story to our attention, and the Atlanta Constitution for its more ‘in-depth’ coverage.

“Seinfeld” Brief:

We’ve heard of the health benefits of “moderate drinking.” Now we find, according to a Syracuse University professor, there’s an “drinkers’ bonus” in 10% to 25% higher wages for moderate drinkers (2 drinks per day) versus (otherwise) equal teetotalers ( WSJ; 7-13-05 ).

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Association News and Events by Laura


 

THE FALL PARADE OF HOMES FINAL DEADLINE IS APPROACHING!

When we hit the “early entry” (July 20th) deadline we had 18 models for the eventthat’s set to open Saturday, October 8th, running to Sunday, the 23rd (Thursdays, Fridays, and weekends).

Entry fees are now at $2,900 ($1,850 for second entries by the same builder), if entered by August 27th.

Regarding that “final deadline:” In recent Parades, we’ve had an average of 3 to 4 builders attempting to enter after the deadline, and put them on a waiting list — which means, if someone drops out; and, IF we can work the waiting home into Housing Quarterly, we will accommodate the participant. However, we’ve only been able to accommodate two builders over the past four parades .... So, if you wish to participate, don’t wait!

Normally, 30% to 40% of the entries come in between the early entry and deadline period, so we now anticipate roughly 27 entries for the event.

The contracts were mailed out June 23rd — If you didn’t receive one, or mis- placed yours, we urge that you call the association office at 810.603.2200, immediately.

Early Entry Participants Include:

Vantage Homes;
Alexander Homes;
Del Pratt Builder;
J W Morgan Construction;
Centex Homes (2);
Lausman Homes (2);
Mallard Ponds;
Lexington Properties (2);
Valley Ridge Construction;
Saratoga Homes;
Abbey Homes;
C & L Homes;
SonRise Homes (3).

Also, we want to remind Housing Quarterly advertisers that we need all contracts and artwork by August 29th. With the layout change we made this past spring, we should be able to accommodate all advertisers (even those wanting full page color) who respond by the deadline. However, if you want a partial page color ad, we should know as soon as possible.

# # # #

Just a quick note on the Golf outing: While it originally sold out in ten days, we were able to accommodate all but 4 members on the waiting list as a couple of foursomes backed out. So, it sometimes pays to get on a waiting list. Also, we ended up with sponsors and contests on 16 holes ... look for the full report in the September issue.

# # # #

And, speaking of September, don’t forget we’ll be starting up the meetings again for fall, with the first scheduled for September 21st, at Bonapartes. And, if you’re setting your calendar, the following meeting’s on October 19th.

# # # #

A “kinder, gentler,” PAC? If you receive a request from “Friends of Housing,” rest assured, there is a sense of legitimacy. The MAHB’s political action committee changed its name from B-Pac at the summer convention

 

 

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Economic Update: A manufacturing upswing?

Normally in this issue, we’d focus on the first estimate of 2nd quarter GDP, which apparently grew at a 3.4% rate (see graph to right). However, since 1st quarter growth was revised upward by 22.6% from the first estimate to the final revision, we’ll concentrate on some interesting news on the manufacturing, and particularly the auto industry front.

First, one couldn’t help but note the Institute for Supply Management’s July report, showing a surge in manufacturing activity during the month. While the report represented the 26th consecutive month of sector growth, the data within the report suggested legitimate strength with the “production” activity component soaring more than 10% from June.

What was interesting with the surge in production was that, after 40 consecutive months of higher prices on materials, manufacturers actually reported a decline in prices for July.

However, if anything points to continued strength, it’s the “Inventory” component of the index for, both, manufacturers and customers. Both are low, with customers being noted as “too low,” as orders were already up nearly 6% over the previous month.

And, perhaps more critical to the local economy, the employment component surged 6.6% (of course, over the past 2 years growth in the index has had virtually no impact on manufacturing jobs).

Normally, a strong ISM report merely raises expectations while manufacturing employment brings disappointing results. But this time, there’s some reason for optimism.

Prior to the release of the July report, “BusinessWeek” published an analysis titled “A Head of Steam on the Factory Floor,” suggesting a “gust of investment spending led by the transportation and energy sectors” has boosted demand of “industrial gear.” It pointed out that the consensus of analysts expects earnings of the “54 industrial companies in the Standard and Poors 500 should climb

19% this quarter, and 22% in the next.” And, that’s on the heels of an expected 19% rise in the 2nd quarter.

But the item that really caught our eye in the analysis related to the fact that manufacturers had been cutting costs since the ‘01 recession and now, with “limited production capacity and strong demand” have been able to raise prices. Now, “com-panies are using the money from price hikes to pay for new equipment, plants and new employees.”

Now, adding more credence to the likelihood of near future manufacturing growth was a Wall Street Journal article about how “economists expect production to rise, boosting growth.” The primary point, in line with this “update,” is that “retailers and manufacturers will be restocking inventories and ramping up production to keep up with demand.”


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New Housing Activity

Half year totals are in, and new annual records (at least from a national perspective) appear almost assured. However, as we’ve been noting since mid winter, that may not mean much for Michigan, and particularly its southeast region.

While single family starts remained at a rate well above last year’s record, the single family sales’ level hit a new monthly all time record at rate of 1.374 million units which (as you can see in the chart below right) is well (14%) above the rate last June. However, what we find far more notable, is that sales are now up 7.3% over ‘04’s six month level at 690,000 year-to- date.

Also, while total starts are up 5.1%, single family is up 5.8%. But, what’s more notable is the activity in the number of units in buildings with 2 to 4 units. In a sign that the condo market continues to be exceptionally hot, we find the numbers in those building to be up 17% (with the combined single family/condo up 5.98%).

State; Region; County

Unfortunately, when it comes to statewide construction data, all we have to go by are preliminary figures from the Census, which aren’t adjusted until the following spring. However, the data do provide somewhat of an indicator for comparison.

Well, for the first half of 2005 we find the government’s single family permit numbers 1,350 units below the same period in ‘04. Furthermore, when we add those 2 to 4 unit buildings to the mix, we find a decline of 1,540, or 6.8% behind ‘04’s level.

Regionally, we’re fortunate to have Housing Consultants’ reports on a monthly basis, providing a more accurate reading. But, unfortunately, that reading shows the region down 13.5% (with Oakland, Washtenaw and Livingston Counties each down between 21% and 27%).

While Genesee County continues to be the only one in the region ahead of last year, that rise is just 2.2% (recall, it was up 60% through February). The chart above provides a comparison of each month in 2004 and ‘05. While we were up 146 units (39.8%) in the first quarter, we were down 124 units (20.1%) in the second.

Of course, due to the surge of permits in February (to preempt the proposed energy code change) the first half data are somewhat distorted. However, as we look at the region as a whole, realizing that local growth has been dependant on the regional economy, we can’t be overly surprised by the second quarter decline.

What we find most notable about the Genesee County data is the 44.6% drop (139 to 77 units) in activity in the Fenton and Linden areas, the local sector most closely tied to the total region. The rest of the county’s actually up 9.9%.

However, the communities experiencing the largest declines (over 60%) are in Oakland and Washtenaw counties:

Rochester Hills (down 262 units; -72%); Orion (down 91; -74%); Auburn Hills (92 units; -68.6%); Holly Twp (81 & -62.8%); Pittsfield Twp (131 & -64%).

So, who’s doing really well? This may come as a big surprise, but there’s a city with a 110% rise in housing starts y-t-d ... AND, it’s hosting the ‘06 Super Bowl! But, its residents aren’t all that happy ... Its Mayor lost 2/3 of the Primary vote!




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