September 8 , 2005

Inside Veritas -
Article 1 -
2nd Quarter price reports give an illustration of state's woes
Article 2 -
Briefs: '02 Sewer/Water case over? Also, checking August auto sales
Article 3 - Existing Market Activity
Article 4 - Mortgage Rate Activity
Article 5 -
Taxation and Finance by Rachor; Purman & Tucker CPAs
Production activity deduction: '04 "Jobs Act"
Association News Update From Laura
Economic Update -
"Katrina's" housing impact?
BS: Still about Nothing in particular
Housing Industry Update
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2nd Quarter price reports give an illustration of state's woes

From mid August to September first, we received all the primary reports regarding existing home prices: The Realtors’ Metro Area price index; NAHB’s Housing Opportunity Index; and the OFHEO House Price Index (HPI). Well, this time they all gave, pretty much, the same illustration of house price movement: U.S. median prices are up 13.6% in the past year; The HPI, measuring repeat activity on the same properties is up 13.4% in the same period, and; NAHB’s median price of ‘new and existing’ homes in the HOI was up 18.1% across the nation.

However, when it comes to Michigan, the state that led the nation in house appreciation in the middle to late 1990s, we see a dramatically different picture. The realtors show median price increases rising from a high of 3.3% (Grand Rapids) to a decline of 3.5% (Kalamazoo). NAHB had prices up 1.6% (since ‘04’s 3rd quarter) in Grand and falling in all other areas (led by “Flint,” down 14.7%). But, as we’ve often noted, median prices can be distorted by several market conditions, so we normally put our faith in the HPI, due to its “same property” base. And, as you can see below, Michigan’s HPI lags well behind the nation’s as a whole. In fact, the state now ranks fourth from the bottom in price growth, with only Ohio, Indiana and Texas having lower rates.

What’s shocking about the 2nd quarter HPI is that 24 state (plus D.C.) experienced price growth of 11.4% or higher over the past year. To put that in perspective, back in ‘97’s second quarter, Michigan had the highest rate in the U.S at 7.9%. In ‘05’s second quarter it would be good enough to rank # 33.

When we look at our state’s HPI in comparison to the nation (right), we see that during the 2nd quarter of ‘96 we’d caught up to the nation as a whole. The graph charts the price growth of a home purchased for $150,000 in that quarter, if it corresponded to Michigan’s HPI and the nation’s.

What was notable in the 2nd quarter data are the surging prices throughout the West. With the exception of Utah and Colorado, all western states were in the top half of the HPI.

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Briefs: '02 Sewer/Water case over? Also, checking August auto sales

Remember the lawsuit, and resulting moratorium over the County’s Sewer and Water Capital Improvement Fee? It was a fascinating period: One where the association was treated like a co-defendant as it remained in support of the Drain Commission’s $1,000 fees against the “Class Action” suit filed by two developers.

For most, the issue was put to rest in March ‘03, when the County Board agreed to back bonds for the Western Trunk relief sewer, prior to the eventual Circuit Court ruling in favor of the Drain Commission.

However, appealed, and last year the Court of Appeals issued a strong ruling in favor of the defendant. So, plaintiff went to the Michigan Supreme Court.

Well, last week Drain Commissioner Jeff Wright called with the news: In a single sentence ruling, the “Supremes” wrote, “We uphold the Appeals’ Court decision.”

Now, if there’s to be further action, it has to go to the U.S. Supreme Court. So, how is this for irony: There was some speculation that Michigan Justice Bob Young was under consideration by the President to replace Justice O’Connor earlier this year. Now that the vacancy is open again (due to Renquist’s passing), wouldn’t it be interesting if he were to get this case again?

# # #

August’s auto sales data show a 3.8% rise from last year, with all major players experiencing solid gains (save one). As Ford and Chrysler were up (6.2 & 5.3%), Toyota (13.8), Honda (23.3) & Nissan (15) each had double digit gains.

Then, there’s GM, down 13.2% with an August market share of just 23.6%, as the lure of “employee discounts” seems to be wearing off.

However, the biggest news is, despite employee discounts, the Japanese continue their gains in market share. As we can see in the chart, the Japanese have raised their share of the market by 3.5% in the past 2 years (a 14.5% gain). During the same period, the “Big 3” lost 2.1% of its collective share (decline of 3.3%) and now is at 60.9% y-t-d. However, that’s at a time Chrysler’s share is on the rise.

Ford and GM have lost a 2.7% share in the two years, an over all 5.5% decline.

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Existing Market Activity

For the 4th consecutive month the NAR reported sales above the 7 million unit rate, continuing the activity level that’ll al-most assuredly set another re- cord in 2005. However, there is a significant note with the July report: Inventory rose 2.6% during the month (to 2.75 million), raising the supply of homes on the market to 4.6 months. And, we wonder if that surge of new listings comes from individuals concerned about the “bubble” talk, deciding to “cash out” be-fore the burst?

Michigan & Metro Flint

Sales took a sharp downturn in July, bringing numbers near ‘04 levels. However, what we’ve noted is that prices are actually down in the Southeast, off approximately 9.3% through the 2nd quarter (see page #1 story on price reports).

Local Inventory

Sales fell to an annual rate of 5,010 in July (from 6,300 in the first half) — so, with an inventory of some 5,700 units on the market, that means there’s a whopping 13.6 months’ supply at the July sales’ rate, roughly 3 times the national rate. And, while the average price rose (below), the median slipped to $110,000.

 

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Mortgage Rate Activity

Well, it isn’t hard to tell that mortgage rates remain well below projected levels as we near the end of the 3rd quarter. After rising to mid August, they tumbled back to mid July levels — in fact, now the National Assoc. of Realtors says rates will end the year at 6.1% (down dramatically from their earlier forecast of 6.65%). Of course, we’ve continuously said the market would keep rates low through the year — but, look for rates to rise in this afternoon’s report.

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Taxation and Finance by Rachor; Purman & Tucker CPAs
Production activity deduction: '04 "Jobs Act"


The driving force behind the recently enacted American Jobs Creation Act of 2004 was the need to repeal the export subsidies that had been found to be in violation of World Trade Organization agreements. The violations had provoked the European Union to impose tariffs on U.S. companies. The centerpiece of the legislation is a new deduction for production activities conducted in the U.S. Here are more details regarding these important provisions:

Production activities’ deduction: The Act replaces the U.S. extraterritorial income exclusion (ETI) with a new tax deduction for domestic production activities. The deduction is a percentage of the net income from those activities-3% in 2005-2006, 6% for 2007-2009, 9% after 2009.

When fully phased in, the deduction is designed to be economically equal to a 3% reduction in the tax rate on U.S.-based production. The deduction’s limit for any tax year may not exceed 50% of the employer's W-2 wages for that tax year. The deduction is available to all taxpayers with qualified production activities income, and it is allowable in computing AMT income.

The U.S. production activities deduction is allowed with respect to a taxpayer's qualified production activities income, which is the taxpayer's domestic production gross receipts net of expenses. "Domestic production gross receipts" are receipts derived from any of the following:
*Any lease, rental, license, sale, exchange, or other disposition of qualifying production property (i.e., tangible personal property, computer software, and certain sound recordings) that was manufactured, produced, grown, or extracted in whole or in significant part by the taxpayer within the U.S.;
*any qualified film produced by the taxpayer; or
*electricity, natural gas, and potable water produced by the taxpayer in the U.S.
*Construction performed in the U.S.
*Engineering and architectural services performed in the U.S. for construction projects in the U.S.

For pass-thru entities (such as S corporations, partnerships, estates and trusts), the deduction generally is determined at the shareholder, partner or similar level by taking into account at that level the proportional share of the qualified production activities income of the entity. Please consult with your professional tax advisor to learn how this new law will effect your specific situation.



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Beyond Seinfeld: It’s still about "Nothing" in particular

Productivity Could Take a Big Hit

With the NFL season kicking off this (Thurs-day) evening (with the Rolling Stones no less), we had to note this report that came across the web last week, noting a study that “Fantasy Football” will cost U.S. employers “$196.1 million in lost productivity this year, as players spend time researching players, reading injury reports and setting roster lineups” while on the job.

A study by the research/job-placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas estimates “32.2 million people in the country play fantasy football,” acting as real General Managers in “compiling a roster of real professional players through a draft,” with the average fantasy player being a 37-year-old, white-collar male who makes $76,000 annually, according to the FSTA.

Of course, living in Michigan, we have to wonder how the Ford Motor Company feels about its employees in a Fantasy League. After all, the CEO just gave his personal “Fantasy” manager a five year contract extension, and we’re sure he could find numerous superior talents working on the lines in his plants.

Obedience School for Husbands?

Some in the office were intrigued by the “Good Morning America” story of a “controversial” British reality show, “Bring Your Husband to Heel.” Annie Clayton, who’s trained dogs for 20 years, hosts the show where wives learn to train their husbands with the same principles used to train dogs.

As Clayton advised her first husband/wife contestants, “it’s all about throwing bones; more ‘good dog’ than ‘sit and stay’.”

Could we be looking at a 2006 Fox network replacement series? Or, will a contestant family be featured on the next “Wife Swap?”

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Association News and Events by Laura

Memberships Pending
Approval

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Vertical Concrete, Jeremy Ford
Sponsor: Kathy White
Symphony Homes, Steve Berges
Sponsor: Barry Simon
Titlest Homes, Inc, Joe Caradonna
Sponsor: Barry Simon
Homes by Hannah, Tom Leone
Sponsor: Barry Simon
Trade Masters Inc, Paul Clark
Sponsor: Doug Graham Jr
Mitch Harris Bldg, Susan Krinke
Sponsor: Barry Simon
Ministry Builders, Don &
Dennis Pfieffer

Sponsor: William Teed (CIS)
Freedom Financial, Jeff Armbruster
Sponsor: Dave Crawford

Welcome to these Companies

 

The fall season kicks off with our General Membership Meeting on Wednesday, Septmeber 21st at Bonaparte's. Our meeting sponsor for the evening is BKR DuPuis & Ryden, a well-known Accounting & Consulting firm in southeastern Michigan. (Now Plante-Moran)
Refreshments and hors d'oeuvres are from 6:00 p.m. to 7:15 p.m., which is the networking portion of the evening. The Association business meeting starts at approximately 7:20 p.m.
Since the summer meeting break, there have been many things going on in the industry and this will give members a chance to be updated on all past and future happenings.
And, as a bonus, Republic Bank will be giving out the Spring Parade Awards to those honored builders.
Please remember, you must RSVP by noon on September 15th by either calling 810-603-2200 or e-mailing us (tracey@bamfhome.com or laura@bamfhome.com) MEMBERS NO CHARGE.....GUESTS ARE $20.00

In case you missed it, the 2005 Golf Outing was definitely one to put in the books. Absolutely perfect weather along with some fun and competitive play, made for a great day for all who attended.
The first place trophy went to Randy Hacker's team, with second place going to the Cislo-Lum-Fick-Carnell team. And a special showing was made by the Pre-Fit Door team, who came in third.
A special thanks to all the hole sponsors and especially HILL STEEL & BUILDERS SUPPLY for their support in sponsoring the cold refreshments along with prizes.

The Fall Parade of Homes is set with 26 homes entered. The event will open on October 8th and run through October 23rd. The Parade will have homes on display ranging in price from $129,900 to $760,000. The hours of the event are noon to 6:00 p.m., on Saturdays & Sundays, and 4:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. Thursday & Fridays.

 

 

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Economic Update: "Katrina's" housing impact?

Normally in this issue, we’d focus on the 1st revision of Q2 GDP and August’s upturn in manufacturing activity. However, for the past ten days it’s ‘Katrina’s’ impact that’s been the economic focus for most, and considering the potential drain on building materials, it should be ours as well.

In a release last Friday, NAHB noted the “number of homes destroyed is certain to dwarf losses from previous natural disasters” and the immediate need is “clean and repair for viable structures,” with “repair” absorbing several key materials (specifically roofing, OSB, & plywood).

It also pointed to the supply side of the material industry, as areas affected by Katrina “have a significant number of wood products’ facilities,” while damage to port facilities (N.O. was the top import facility for cement).

However, while NAHB refrained from specifics, others weren’t so timid. In a letter dated Sept. 5th, from “Do it best,” its VP - Lumber & Materials noted the “panic buying of forest products & materials” already causing “serious supply problems for the industry (OSB jumped nearly $100 in one week). But, perhaps worse, is that supply shortages are being complicated by transportation problems, and the letter notes four specific areas of concern:

Note: New Orleans had 200,000 homes with a large share damaged beyond repair. NAHB points out that “past experience has shown that there is no massive surge in home building in affected areas,” and notes “replacing destroyed units will not begin for many months, and will happen slowly, over a number of years.”

The suggestion is that long term effects will be manageable. However, we have already seen how panic buying (hoarding, etc.) have had an immediate impact on prices, so we again advise all builders stay in close contact with their suppliers whenever planning or bidding a project — and, we’ll attempt to stay on top of major materials’ fluctuations over the next several months —


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New Housing Activity - New Home Construction

It’s hardly a surprise that the July data showed new housing starts continuing at a pace well beyond 2004’s all time record. Single family starts passed the 1.7 million unit rate for the 4th time in the past six months and sales (see below right) set an all time monthly record.

From a year to date perspective, single family starts passed the million unit pace in seven months, and are running 5.7% ahead of ‘04’s record pace.

However, of the 54,800 additional homes built, 50,000 are in the South. Midwest activity is nearly identical to 2004, which brings us to:

State and Local Activity

Statewide single family permits are off 2,200 units through the month, or 8.3% below the same period last year, according to Commerce Department data (Region’s down 14.8% per Housing Consultants), as economic conditions finally appear to have caught up to the housing industry.

Of course, our focus remains on the region, which is finally experiencing the impact of the 183,000 jobs lost since 2000. While Genesee County is only 2.4% down for the year, Oakland, Macomb, Livingston and Washtenaw counties are each down between 16% and 29%.

However, while the Flint area has numbers close to last year, as you can see in the chart to the right, we’ve been hit hard in the past 4 months. Since the end of March, we’re down 331 units from the year earlier pace, that’s 33.7% since the end of the first quarter.

On another note, there were 447 homes, built in ‘05, on the local MLS as of this morning, or 38.4% of all homes authorized by permit for the year.

New Single Family Home Sales Record

July set another new record for new home sales as builder/

developers sold homes at a rate of 1.41 million units according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. In comparison with July ‘04, the rate was up 27.7%, bringing the year to date actual number to 801,000 (8.4% ahead of 2004’s pace). What we find most nota- ble is that’s 79.5% of all single family housing starts for the year. So, when we consider that, during the 1990s, sales as a percent of starts was only 63.3%, we really have to look at changes in the industry that make these variations so dramatic.

While we’ve pointed to the department’s monitoring process in the past, it’s probably time that we look beyond that — best guess? They’re counting a lot of condos as “single family.”




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