October 2006

Inside Veritas -
Article 1 -
Parade opens with perfect weather; surprising traffic
Article 2 -
Existing Market Activity
Article 3 - Housing and Economic Briefs: Job Growth didn't fizzle; But HPI did
Article 4 - I "gave" to the tax collector
Article 5 - Taxation and Finance by Rachor; Purman & Tucker CPAs
When buying a building
Article 6 -
Housing's Michigan tax impact
Association News Update
New Construction and Sales Activity
BS: Still about Nothing in particular
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Parade opens with perfect weather; surprising traffic

If ever there was a time to be apprehensive about the opening of an association event, it was this past weekend. After all, we only had 19 Parade of Homes’ entries and there’s little question the market’s seen far better days.

However, everything must be kept in perspective. The last time we had fewer than twenty homes in a Parade was Fall of ‘92, of which we wrote: “As the deadline approached, the association received a pleasant surprise ...... as 18 homes were entered in the event.”

What was a “record” for participation then, is now considered small, at least by 21st Century standards.

However, what really stresses the differences between the Parades in the early ‘90s and those of recent years, are not the numbers, but the products and designs that were exclusive to the highest priced homes back then, that (now) are commonplace in the 21st Century market. And, that’s what we promoted as attractions for this event.

Well, it seemed to work, as hundreds of people came out to the homes over the weekend, showing there remains a solid interest in new housing and the amenities that make them special today.

And we also experienced the kind of growth in web site traffic we normally expect at the opening of a “Parade.” In fact, the Friday and weekend visits to the site (450 daily on average) were just slightly under the spring average (when we had 44 homes).

Of course, more critical than traffic are sales, and we’ll be monitoring any results over the next couple months. The quality of this year’s entries are phenomenal, with several unique items. We’d note that Darrin Lum’s entry is the first totally “handicap accessible” home, Steve Steffey’s model is only accessible by a bridge built over a private lake, and U.P. Builders’ models are in an upscale “neo-traditional” development. The event continues thru October 22nd. Parade Awards Winners: Due to the size of the events, we only had 3 categories: Aurora, Pinnacle, and Summit.

The winners were:

Aurora

Platinum - Lausman Homes

Gold - Valley Ridge Const.

Silver - Lexington Properties


Pinnacle

Platinum - SonRise Homes

Gold - Fischhaber Builders

Silver - SonRise Homes

Summit

Platinum - Pine Hollow Homes

The awards will be presented at October’s General Membership meeting.

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Existing Market Activity


While existing home sales fell less than expected (0.5%) during August, the major story was the median price, falling $5,000 from July and $4,000 from last August according to the monthly National Association of Realtors’ report. However, what we can’t help but find humorous was the NAR’s release verbiage: “while home prices showed an anticipated decline.” Wasn’t this the same organization that’s been saying the industry was headed toward a “soft landing, with price increases moderating in the 6% range” for 2006?

Of course, all that was said in a time that prices were already in decline (as their data reflected in the graph to the right illustrates). So, we could assume, by the re-port, that the NAR was deliberately misleading the media …. and, why not? After all, that’s the same media that never seemed to want to look behind the verbiage in previous releases. (By the way, NAHB totally concurred with the NAR’s “soft landing” and price expectations)

Anyway, sales were at a 6.3 million unit level in August, down 12.6% from the rate a year ago, which has serious implications regarding the inventory level of existing homes.

According to the trade group, there are now roughly 3.9 million homes on the market, a rise of 37.9% over last August. What’s more troubling, is that inventory’s up 35.9% since January.

However, at the current rate of sales, the inventory data represent a “7.5 months’ supply” of homes on the market. Last August, the sales’ rate was 7.2 million and inventory represented a 4.7 months’ supply. So, over the past year, while inventory’s up a whopping 37.9%, the likely time a home would be expected to remain on the market soared by 59.6%. (Note: the 7.5 months is the highest since April 1993).

State and Local

As of noon Monday, the Michigan Association of Realtors had not posted August sales data .... however, we doubt there’s been much change since July’s data continued below..Check BAMF’s Web Site for the new sales data which we’ll note when posted.

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Housing and Economic Briefs: Job Growth didn't fizzle; But HPI did

September’s jobs’ report was somewhat disturbing as it came in well below expectations, and at the lowest level in 11 months. And, the media reports primarily focused on the issue that, while U.S. payrolls grew by 51,000 for the month, it represented the lowest figure since last October.

However, the September re-port wasn’t all bad. It included an upward revision of 60,000 in August. So, the combined total, of the growth plus revision, was 111,000 jobs, just slightly below forecasts, and considered basically solid and sustainable numbers. In fact, we can see that in the reaction of the bond market.

Normally weak employment reports create a rally in bond prices. But Friday’s report led to just the opposite, as bond suffered their worst retreat in several weeks.

Manufacturers cut 19,000 jobs during the month. However, surprising to some, auto industry companies showed a 1,700 increase. Why? While the “Big 3” are cutting production, Asian auto makers seem to be stepping up.

Another surprise was construction. With housing activity way off 2005 levels, some were shocked to find 8,000 additional workers last month. However, the gain was in the non-residential sector. Residential and speciality companies saw employment slip by 15,600.

We covered the Government’s 2nd quarter House Price Index in the fall issue of Housing Quarterly (page 20) in depth, but will reflect on the Michigan situation here.

As you can see in the chart directly, Michigan’s HPI has been in decline since the 2nd quarter of ‘05. The state’s rate of appreciation has remained below 1% for each quarter since late 2004, and actually had negative growth in spring.

However, despite the 2nd quarter, values remained up (though just 1%) on a year-to- year basis.

What may have caused major concern regarding state and local home values was the NAR’s quarterly report showing three Michigan metros, all with year-to-year price declines: Detroit (-8%); Lansing (-1.5%) and Grand Rapids (-1.9%).

In reality, each of these metros showed gains in value, (admittedly small), but market conditions distorted the price levels. For example, the ‘Detroit’ market takes in at least eight realtors’ boards. While the three Oakland County boards reported sales declines of 1,500 units in the first half, Detroit experienced 700 more sales than a year earlier. So, with declining sales in the areas with a $225,000 average price, coupled with growing sales in the area with an average price of $63,800, the impact on the median price (mid point) was dramatic.

What may be the real Michigan surprise is Ann Arbor, the one area in the state with positive economic news (Google, Toyota). The area’s appreciation rate was dead last, #275 of 275 metro areas covered by the House Price Index.

 

Et Tu Chrysler ? As we’ve all seen volumes about Ford’s and GM’s cuts in employment and production, we found in the middle of last month that Chrysler’s expecting to lose $1.5 billion in the third quarter due to, what’s sounding like a broken record: slow truck sales and health care costs. Well, Businessweek reported in its October 2nd issue that the “company chopped production by 16% for the second half of the year, and may turn to permanent job and output cuts.” If you missed it, it was due to being announced on the same day Ford said it would speed up its slashing the 30,000 workers, and that it was raising its white collar cuts to 14,000.

With cars on our minds, we were amazed to hear that two companies are working on cutting edge technologies to allow an auto to determine if the driver is “to drunk to drive.” Nissan is considering a breathalyzer, as well as more sophisticated systems like cameras to monitor a driver’s behavior. A Toyota spokesman said his company is not only looking at a breathalyzer, but a way of testing for alcohol through the steering wheel using (get this) “onboard computers to monitor driving style.” We’ll try to have a demonstration when it’s ready!!!!

Will cheaper oil result in higher interest rates? That’s a real possibility, since oil producing nations have been putting much of their recent profits into U.S. Treasuries, which is one of the primary reasons long term interest rates have remained so low.

However, as falling oil prices bring less money into those nations, they’ll have to spend a higher percentage (of fewer dollars) at home, leaving less for the U.S.

So, the federal government would likely borrow at higher rates, driving all long term rates (including fixed mortgages) upward.

While we may not be getting much in the way of Asian auto plants in Michigan, we were amazed to find the growing engineering, design and development activity taking place between Detroit and Ann Arbor. Turns out that Toyota’s Camry, Sienna minivan, and Avalon, as well as its new Tundra truck were all designed locally. So are Nissan’s Titan, Altima and Versa.

And, soon there will be Kia and Hyundai models designed in the Korean auto makers’ Ann Arbor facilities. There’s also a Suzuki center in Wixom, and the likelihood of a Chinese facility coming to the area.


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I "gave" to the tax collector

Last month in this spot we referred to area voters’ “generosity,” for passing another Property Tax initiative. Well, subsequently we were shocked to discover a study that says we’re one of the least “generous” states.

Newtithing.org says that, while Michigan ranks 11th in wealth, we’re 33rd in charitable giving.
And, it also found that all the wealthiest states seem to lack when it comes to “charity.”

However, with the exception of Texas, we find the other states with “wealth” seem to give a lot, but not in the same way.

For example, for each pack of cigarettes in Michigan, we present a donation of $1.25 to education. And, with each property tax bill, we give to senior citizens, physically challenged bus riders, parks and, of course, our children’s education.

Furthermore, we’ve seen tax structures of similar proportion in other “non-giving” states, like PA, NJ, CA and NY (to name a few). So, we say to Newtithing. org/, you better compare apples to apples before making these judgements. After all, we doubt Utah residents, which rank first on the “generosity” scale, pay much in vice or property taxes, leaving them much more to tithe on weekends.

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Taxation and Finance by Rachor; Purman & Tucker CPAs
When buying a building

As a business expands, the owners often decide that the time is right to buy a building. Then, too, real estate can be an attractive investment even when a company doesn't need space for expansion. Before committing to a purchase of real estate, however, owners of regular "C" corporations should consider the potential tax consequences.

Rather than having the corporation buy the property, it usually makes more sense to purchase the property individually or through a limited liability company or partnership. Here's why. To avoid double taxation. A future sale of the property could result in double taxation of any gain realized on the sale - first to the corporation (at the corporation's regular tax rate) and second to the shareholders when the proceeds are distributed to them as dividends. Holding the property individually or in a "pass-through" entity such as a limited liability company avoids the corporate-level tax.

To avoid PHC treatment. If the property is to be rented, receipt of rental income by the corporation could cause it to be taxed as a personal holding company (PHC). Undistributed PHC income is subject to a 15% penalty tax in addition to regular income tax.

To facilitate a future sale.
Holding real estate along with operating assets in a corporation can complicate a future sale of the company, especially if a stock sale is contemplated. This issue is avoided if the real estate is owned individually or by another entity.

To save family taxes. The tax basis of property held by a corporation is not stepped up to fair market value upon the death of a shareholder. In contrast, assets held individually receive a basis step-up, which could save substantial taxes when the surviving family sells the property.

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Housing's Michigan tax impact

While Granholm and DeVos continue to play Michigan’s voters for idiots with their respective commercial babble about “jobs” (he moved them to China, she lost them), both continue to ignore the real issue the next administration will face: Growing costs of government with steeply declining revenues. One of the major items impacting the state’s immediate future is the decline of housing growth (along with values of existing homes).
In spring of ‘05 I wrote an article titled “While housing pays the bills, manufacturing gets all the breaks,” showing the direct tax revenues that went to state and local governments from new home construction, along with indirect revenues. The conclusion was that “direct” revenues alone brought more than $1 billion in 2004, and a “10% cut in single family construction would result in a decline of more than $101 million in state and local tax revenue.
Well, this year we’re likely to be down 45% on a state wide basis from ‘04. The decline in direct tax revenue of $450 million (much anticipated in the government budgeting process) will create big shortfalls in communities across the state (as well as the state itself) in ‘07. And, while housing’s growth replaced the lost tax revenues from manufacturing job losses, nothing is there to replace lost housing revenues. We can only say “we told you so!”

Barry

Beyond Seinfeld: It’s still about "Nothing" in particular

"American Union of Pizza Delivery"

With union membership in decline locally, we couldn’t help but be intrigued by the CNN story out of Pensacola (FL) about a “Domino’s” Pizza delivery driver. Apparently Jim Pohle was mad as hell and wouldn’t take it anymore when he discovered a competitor was offering 25 cents more per hour and his bosses wouldn’t match it. So, rather than quit, he formed the nation’s first “Pizza Delivery” union, and now represents 11 drivers as its President.

Pohle, a 37 year old ex-Marine, “who delivers pizzas because he likes to sleep late and smoke on the job,” contacted a St. Louis (MO) labor attorney who coached him on Union law, and submitting a petition to the NLRB, which recognized the union this summer.

A spokesman for the NLRB further told the Associated Press there’s a petition pending from other Pensacola pizza makers wanting to join.

A spokesman for Domino’s (in Ann Arbor) points out that franchises are “independently owned,” but the company was “disappointed” by the vote and does not believe a union is “necessary” in their industry.

Of course, we’re wondering how much longer it will be until we’re told to “look for the Union Label” on our pizza boxes? And, with that, will they still sell 3 pizzas for $15 with all the toppings?

“Seinfeld” Briefs:
A new “Irony Defined:” A bumper sticker on a car leaving the “Grande Blanche” post office read: “Outsource DeVos ... Not Michigan Jobs.” Unfortunately, the driver wasn’t one to practice what she preached. Her car just happened to be a Swedish built Saab.

*****

Couldn’t help but laugh at a returned copy of Veritas by the postal service last month. We don’t know where the copy of the July 2005 Newsletter had been floating for the past 14 months.

*****

We’re a bit concerned about the industry’s “investment” in the DeVos gubernatorial campaign. While we seldom look for truth in advertising, it’s somewhat troubling to see so many dollars spent on telling voters Michigan has the “49th worst economic climate:” Or, in other words, the “2nd Best.” While we’d like to assume his ad agency is merely confused, our best guess is that it thought “2nd worst” just didn’t sound “bad” enough ... which, shows how much respect it has for the voters’ collective intelligence.

*****

“Good news for aging hippies: Smoking pot may stave off Alzeimer’s.” So opened the Reuters news story about new research showing THC, the active ingredient in Marijuana, can prevent “the neurotransmitter acetylcholine from breaking down.”
After the report’s release, ad agencies for Breyers’ Ice Cream and Hostess “Twinkies” were frantically scrambling to buy time on evening news’ broadcasts.

*****

The Holiday Season will soon be here, so: Since a Seinfeld episode dealt with “re-gifting,” we were amazed by a Reuters’ report on a Harris survey of Americans’ finding that “52% have re-gifted or would re-gift.”

Barry

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Association News and Events
by Laura

General Membership Meeting: The evening begins at 6:00 p.m. (Wednesday) October 25th, at Brookwood Golf Club, with hors’ d’oeuvres and cocktails, followed by the meeting at around 7:30. This is the “Annual Meeting” of association members, and includes the election of directors for 2007, along with an update on the state of the association and the industry, along with the coming general elections. Also, as has become a more recent tradition, the evening is sponsored by James Lumber.

And, regarding BAMF elections: There are 13 elected directors with 2 year terms, and six expiring at the year’s end. BAMF’s “Past President’s Council” nominated the following to fill those positions:
Builders: John Fick; Dave Crawford; Chris Weir; and Keith Kirby.
Subcontractor: Dan Fralick
Associate: Doug Graham
Additional candidates can be nominated from the floor with a nomination and 2nd by and for any member in “good standing.”
Under 2005’s by-laws’ change, Officers for 2007 will be chosen by the Board.

 


 

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New Construction and Sales Activity

New Housing Conundrum

This one’s really interesting. As single family starts are off 8.8% year to date, and sales are off 15.7%, inventory’s up 19.1% in the past year.
Now, logic would suggest that a decline in starts would offset some of the sales’ decline as it relates to inventory. However, as we’ve frequently noted, data for starts and sales are based on different types of building. While “starts” estimates come from surveys of building departments in major areas (and estimates in others) of all housing activity, “sales” data are limited to homes that include the sites and houses in the transaction.
Last fall we wrote that “sales,” as a percentage of starts, had risen from 63% in the 1990s to nearly 75% in in ‘05, as builder/ developers picked up a significantly larger share of the U.S. market. Today, in all likelihood, due to the nature of large building company operations, smaller builders have responded to the changing market conditions much quicker than the biggest builders. Consequently, building companies whose sales are measured by the government have built a much higher percentage of the nation’s homes in ‘06. Thus, it’s not really a surprise that inventory data are out of line with “starts” numbers.

New Home Sales

It was kind of interesting that media reports of August housing sales focused on the “rise” of 4.1% over July. Actually, the data showed sales were down 17.4% from a year earlier.
What we can find interesting is the recent gap between existing and new home prices (see chart lower left) of 4.37% since May. From 2000 through 2003 the gap was 18.9%.

Local/Regional

Well, as you can see in the 2 charts to the right, August was just more of the same. Through the month the 9 county, South-east Michigan region is running 46.2% behind last year (54.3% from ‘04) according to Housing Consultants’ data. The major counties in the region are down from as little as 46% (Macomb) to 68.3% (Washtenaw) versus 2004. Genesee County is down 60.4%; Oakland’s off 57.7%.
In ‘04 the regional new housing industry added $6.6 billion to the area’s value. Just think of the impact on state, local and school revenues then and now.


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