October 10, 2002

Inside Veritas -
Article 1 -Steve Easley to Speak: “Mold and Mildew, a Growing Concern”
Article 2 - Business/Housing News Notes
Article 3 - Area’s Industry was Base for WSJ article
Article 4 - Taxation and Finance - Options for Business Auto Expenses
Article 5 - When legal action’s the only alternative
Association News Update From Laura
Economic Update -
Employment: The obvious problem?
BS: Still about Nothing in particular
Housing Industry Update

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Steve Easley to Speak: “Mold and Mildew, a Growing Concern”
  
   Internationally recognized construction consultant and media personality, Steve Easley, will be the featured speaker at the Association’s October 23 General Membership Meeting with the timely topic of, “Managing Moisture to prevent Mold and Mildew.” The former Purdue University professor of Building Construction & Contracting now specializes in solving science related building problems, with his primary clients being contractors, utilities, government & trade associations.
   Although his work’s been featured in Professional Builder, Fine Home Building, Journal of Light Construction and Popular Science (along with numerous other publications), he’s probably best known for his current co-hosting of “Michael Holigan’s Your New House” on the Discovery Channel and features on many other TV and radio programs such as “This Old House,” “Home Again,” and “The House Doctor.”
   The meeting’s sponsor is James Lumber, who arranged the Steve Easley appearance with Hansen Marketing.
   As always, the meeting’s set at Bonaparte’s, beginning with the sponsor’s Social Hour at 6:00, along with an extensive hors d’oeuvre menu. Meeting at 7:30.
   With the quality of the speaker and the timeliness of the topic, we urge builders, in particular, to attend. And, since we’re expecting a large turnout for the evening, it’s more important than ever that we have a solid count by the previous Thursday afternoon. So we urge that you RSVP by 5:00 p.m. on Oct 16th at 810.603.2200.

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Business/Housing News Notes

   A new study by the American Farmland Trust claims “the U.S. is losing two acres of prime farmland every minute to development,” and the “problem is worsening.” Now, we’re willing to accept this claim under the following condition: All government payments to farmers be based on acreage as claimed by the Farmland Trust. That we go back to pre-Freedom to Farm Act doles, and index annual bulk payments accordingly, taking inflation and the alleged declines acreage into account. By such method, we could probably trim $6 to $8 billion off the national budget.

   The real news in September’s auto sales report was the plunging market share experienced by GM. After approaching the 30% level in August, the nation’s #1 auto producer saw its share slip back to 25.2%.
   However, GM’s exceptionally strong sales activity of July and August depleted its inventory of 2002 models, while competitors were offering big discounts on a much greater inventory. So, as GM’s sales fell 13% from a year ago, Ford sales were up 3.5%, and Chrysler’s up 18.6%, giving it a 14.9% share of the month’s market. Chrysler’s at 14.5% for the year, just 4.1 points above Toyota’s 10.4% share.

Well, it looks like the price bubble DID burst, and it wasn’t home prices. An article in Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal told of plunging existing car prices, in response to the glut of used vehicles now on the market. As new car buyers, enticed by incentives, are trading in their existing models, they’re finding the value’s not much. It turns out that the values of a large number of 2000 models fell 40 to 60% over two years, and a number of new car buyers owe more on their vehicle than its book value. So, many of those 0% interest loans are for the cost of the new car, plus what’s owed on the old one.
   To put the prices in perspective, the value of a ‘00 Taurus SE fell from $19,440 to $8,302 over the two years; Ford Expedition, $30,440 to $15,974; and a Ford Football Team? From 9 wins, 7 losses to WORTHLESS.

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Area’s Industry was Base for WSJ article

   It took six weeks to write, but last Friday’s Wall Street Journal article on factory built housing components, focusing on Genesee County, showed the difference in building philosophy between the large corporate builder and the small, custom builder.
   The article’s intent was to show the proliferation of panelized components in today’s new built homes, and the writer turned to the “Flint” area for his story, focusing on Pulte Homes’ developments in Grand Blanc. But in reality, it went in line with an article a couple of weeks back that stressed how large builders were increasing their market share. Deductively, we see that a larger share of homes are built with panelized components only because a larger share of homes are being built by the giant corporations that use such components.
   The defining statements in the article came from Pulte’s CEO, and a local builder. Noted Mark O’Brien, the move towards panelization comes from the need to provide “quality” at a time there’s no longer a steady supply of trades. “We go for quality,” O’Brien said, “we have to get it somewhere.”
   But the article also pointed out that “some builders, typically small local concerns, are resisting.” Then, as an example, it used the following quote from “Rodney Rajala, builder in Flint:” Said Rajala, “You take any master craftsman to one of these panelized, dollar controlled developments and he will show you the compromises that have been made with materials, quality and finishes.” Added Eric Hauger, factory built walls are often thinner, with lower quality, than what he uses on site.
   “Yet Pulte and other big builders say panelization improves their quality,” the WSJ explained. Improves or lowers? A question which may mean more than for what it was intended.

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Taxation and Finance ---- Options for Business Auto Expenses

   An employee can substantiate car expenses by arduously keeping an exact record of his or her expenses, such as gasoline, insurance, and other costs. However, there are other mileage allowance calculations that may be used by either employees or employers that are more cost effective and time efficient.
What is a mileage allowance?
   A mileage allowance is a payment under a reimbursement or other expense allowance arrangement that is: 1) Paid for ordinary and necessary business expenses incurred by employees for transportation expenses in performing services as an employee; 2) Reasonably calculated not to exceed the amount of the expenses or anticipated expenses; and 3) Paid at the standard mileage rate, at a flat rate or stated schedule, or in accordance with any IRS-specified rate or schedule.
Standard mileage rate
   The standard mileage rate method is a simplified method available to both employees and self-employed persons in computing deductions for car expenses. Under the standard mileage method, the employee determines the amount of the allowable deduction by multiplying all the business miles driven during the year by the standard mileage rate.
   The IRS recently announced the standard mileage rates for ‘03 when computing the deductible costs of operating an automobile for business purposes. For 2003, the standard mileage rate for the use of a car for business purposes is 36 cents for each business mile driven. This is down from 36.5 cents a mile in 2002.
Fixed and variable rate (FAVR) mileage allowance
   Under the FAVR method, an employer reimburses its employees’ expenses with a mileage allowance using a flat rate or a stated schedule that combines periodic fixed costs (including depreciation, insurance, registration and license fees, and personal property taxes) and variable payments (including gasoline and all gasoline taxes, oil, tires, and routine maintenance and repairs).
   An employer may maintain more than one FAVR allowance. A FAVR allowance that uses the same payer, standard automobile, retention period, and business use percentage is considered one FAVR allowance, even if other features of the allowance vary.
   The amount of A FAVR allowance must be based on data that is derived from the base locality, reflects retail prices paid by consumers; and is reasonable and statistically defensible in approximating the actual expenses of the employees receiving the allowance.
Limitations
   There are limitations that apply to FAVR allowance, including:
1) An allowance may be paid only to employees who substantiate to the employer that they have at least 5,000 business miles per year;
2) An allowance may not be paid to a control employee. For these purposes, an employee is not a control employee merely due to compensation exceeding $100,000;
3) A majority of employees covered by the allowance may not be paid to management employees; and
4) At all times, at least 5 employees of an employer must be covered.

Reporting and recordkeeping
   An employee, whose car is initially covered by a FAVR allowance or is again covered if such coverage has lapsed, must, within 30 days after such coverage has begun, provide his employer with a written declaration. The declaration must contain: the make model, and year of the auto; written proof of the insurance coverage limits on the car; the odometer reading; the car’s purchase price; and whether the employee has claimed depreciation on the car.

What does the deduction mean?
   A deduction computed using a FAVR allowance is in lieu of all operating and fixed costs incurred by an employee in driving an automobile performance of services as an employee, except for tolls, parking fees, and interest incurred on the purchase of an automobile. These latter items may be deducted separately to the extent that a deduction is otherwise allowed.
   For more information about these substantiation options, please contact your tax advisor.

R, P & T

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New Meeting Format 10/23

   During this year’s meetings it’s been evident that many of our members were enjoying the networking taking place during social hour and were reluctant to end it to sit down for dinner and the meeting. So yesterday, the directors decided to try something more accommodating, and to do it immediately! On October 23, we’re planning an extensive hors d’oeuvre menu during an extended social hour (6:00 to 7:30). Then, we’ll go right into the program (no buffet), with only announcements and the guest speaker.


Barry

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Beyond Seinfeld: It’s still about "Nothing" in particular

Detroit: Flint’s Takeover Twin Sister?

   A recent column by former Detroit News editor Thomas Bray suggests Detroit ‘s fiscal condition is so grave, it could soon be joining Flint as a state takeover target. Pointing out that the city has already “lost control of several key functions (Recorders’ Court, city schools)” and faces regionalization of its transportation and water systems,” Bray writes there’s an “unmistakable signal: Patience with Detroit has run out.”
   Noting the incompetence of a number of city department operations, from water, to health, to clerk, he says “Detroit is rapidly becoming a city in name only.” And, he concludes, “without the tens of millions poured into it annually by state taxpayers, it would quickly pass to receivership.
   Of course, the concept of take-over will bring about the question: Who would be Detroit’s Ed Kurtz? We’d suggest William Clay Ford, Jr., Mike Illitch or, as a dark horse, Matt Millen. Each has done so much for Detroit’s image, they’d have to be the top candidates.

Loggers cut scholarships to treehuggers' kids

   “We are not going to use timber dollars to send the professors’ kids, teachers’ kids, physicians’ kids to school because they’re the ones helping to shut down the industry with donations to Greenpeace. They support those people who are killing us.”
   That was the explanation by the Clemens Foundation for excluding students from Philomath, a small Oregon logging town, from its scholarship program that historically paid for any student wanting to go to college. We want to go back to the original intent of the program, said Foundation Director Steve Lowther, and “send kids from timber, ag, mining and ranching backgrounds.”
   Turns out Philomath was invaded by “yuppies” who commute to jobs at Oregon St. University and Hewlett Packard, who found free education an alluring attraction. And, these “invaders” changed the community’s culture dramatically. Now the dress code allows hair dye and body piercing, while the curriculum’s now perceived as having an “anti-logging bias.” .... Welcome to suburbia!

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Association News and Events by Laura

  


   If the opening weekend was any indication, the Fall Parade of Homes will be recognized as one of the most successful in modern times. Reports from participating builders suggest traffic was up dramatically from recent events, with people waiting at the door for the noon opening. Furthermore, traffic at bamfhome.com was stronger than expected prior to the opening. Normally, fall Parade web traffic is roughly 30% below spring. However, the lead-in week’s traffic was well above the record setting pace of Spring ‘02, with 2,214 visits from 9/28 to 10/4.
   The Parade runs through October 20th.

 


Association Notes

  

The Habitat House is now roofed and closed in ...look for an update at the October meeting and in upcoming Veritas’.

No NAHB Dues Increase ... for now?
  
At NAHB’s Board Meeting in Alaska last month, the directors refused to give the leadership the $30 per member rise in dues it had requested. So, in order to balance the budget, leadership had to cut spending, thus eliminating Nations’ Building News; Leadership training; the positions of Membership Director and Regulatory manager; funding “Builders Care;” and reductions in other programs we’re sure you’ll miss as much as those eliminated. However, they’ll try again at the winter convention.
   Did you know that $181, nearly 40% of you dues to BAMF are taken by NAHB and MAHB?


 

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Economic Update: Employment: The obvious problem?

   When employment data was released last week, the proverbial “good news,” “bad news,” situation was evident. The good news: the jobless rate fell to 5.6% from 5.7%. The bad: total employment declined by 43,000 jobs. So, the often stated concern about “recovery without jobs” continued.
   But we couldn’t help but remember another time when the unemployment rate slipped to 5.6%. It was November, ‘94, and the Federal Reserve was terrified that the economy was overheating at a rate that would surely create inflation. In response to the growth in jobs, the Fed raised short term rates from 4 to 4.5% (on the way to 6% in winter of ‘95). Conventional wisdom at the time was that growth creating an unemployment rate below 6% was unsustainable without leading to inflation.
   Today, though the numbers are the same (except the economy has 15 million more jobs), the well founded concern is the possibility of a “double-dip” recession. And, if 6% remains a target for unemployment, no one would dare say so publicly.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
   Real GDP — the output of goods and services produced in the U.S. — rose at an annual rate of 1.3% in the second quarter, according to the final revision by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
   Although the Q2 figure was well off the first quarter’s 5% growth, it was up from the department’s revised estimate of 1.1% released in August. However, there were a number of notable factors in the late September report.
   For example, personal consumption expenditures increased at a 1.8% rate during the quarter, a significant falloff from the 3.1% rise in Q1. Residential fixed investment increased 2.7%, dramatically below the 14.2% first quarter rise. There was also an evident surge in import/export activity as real exports of goods and services surged 14.3% (up from 3.5%), while real imports were up 22.2% (up 8.5% in the first quarter).
   Finally, the report showed little evidence of an inflation problem, as prices were up at a 2.3% rate while the core rate (minus food/energy) was at 1.5%.

Economic Notes:
   The bureau also reported Personal Income & Disposable Personal income were up 0.4% in August, after showing no growth in July. Personal consumption was up .3%, $23.7 billion over July. ..... After showing signs of growth since January, Manufacturing Activity contracted last month according to the Institute of Supply Management’s index. It’s hardly a surprise that activity began to decline since it showed a reading of 50.5 in August, meaning it was barely expanding at the time ... and, throughout the 9 months, manufacturing jobs continued to decline.

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Housing Industry Update - Housing stays strong despite economy

   As fixed rate mortgages continued to fall throughout the summer, homes continued to sell at record levels despite the problems that remained evident in the economy as a whole. In fact, new homes actually sold at an all time record pace in August, up 1.9% from July’s revised rate of 977,000 units.
However, since new home sales have been revised downward for each of the preceding three months, the “record” may be somewhat presumptive.
Still, there’s little question that sales are strong enough to be leading to the second consecutive record year.
For the same month, existing single family homes sold at a rate of 5.28 million units, which is down from July (and most of the year), but close to the annual record pace of ‘01. Furthermore, unlike Commerce Department data regarding new homes, the “Realtors’” existing home sales have recently been understated when first reported.
Existing homes have sold at roughly a 5.6 million unit clip all year, and the realtors now forecast 5.47 million through December, a 3.2% rise from 2001. They also expect a new record of 929,000 new home sales by year’s end, up 2.2% from ‘01’s record level.

Michigan’s building activity experienced a solid 7.8% jump in August, compared to July, as permits were issued at a rate of 50,434 units, roughly equal to 2001’s year end rate. A total of 4,877 units were authorized for the month, according to Census bureau data.
However, the number of single family permits, 3,863, was the lowest number for any August since 1998.
From a local market perspective, single family activity across the “Detroit” area (including Ann Arbor and Flint) is up slightly in comparison to last year. However, regional single family activity’s off 7.4% from 2000, and 11% from the Jan thru Aug ‘99.
Genesee County’s running roughly 180 units behind last year’s single family pace. During the first 8 months it’s built 1,258 single family units, more than 12% below ‘01’s 1,436.

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