October 30, 2003

Inside Veritas -
Article 1 - Grand Blanc Moratorium Ends as BAMF Accepts Twp. Agreement
Article 2 - Regarding Veritas’ Schedule
Article 3 - Gephardt: New "Monarch" in Waiting (from previous issue)
Article 4 - Taxation and Finance - Tax Act of 2003 — Dividends and Capital Gains Rate Reductions
Article 5 -
Association News Update From Laura
Economic Update -
Soaring “growth” without jobs?
BS: Still about Nothing in particular
Housing Industry Update

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Grand Blanc Moratorium Ends as BAMF Accepts Twp. Agreement

  The most hectic three weeks in BAMF history came to a bittersweet end Wednesday morning, as Grand Blanc Township lifted the building moratorium it invoked on October 9, just prior to the Fall Parade’s opening. Its lifting came as the result of the association accepting a Township proposal issued Monday, on the heels of several court appearances. What follows is an update of what transpired in the days since the October 13th Special Edition, where we told of the Township declaring the moratorium in response to the lawsuit filed by the association that challenged the its raising of sewer and water tap-in fees:

Tuesday, October 14
  Both parties went to court for the scheduled hearing on the BAMF motion for an injunction to end the moratorium, along with a “settlement conference.” There was no hearing, as Judge Neithercut met with attorney’s and proposed a “methodology” for dealing with the total situation. The methodology involved the lifting of the moratorium and a facilitation process. The hearing was then postponed to the following Tuesday.
  On Thursday (10/16), BAMF’s board of directors approved the methodology, however, the following Monday, it was rejected by the Township.
  Furthermore, the scheduled hearing was postponed until Thursday, October 23.

Wednesday, October 22
  More than a hundred members were at the association General Membership meeting, which was dominated by the Grand Blanc situation. After Barry Simon presented an update on the issue, there was open discussion in a “Town Hall” setting, with members expressing support for the association’s position on the lawsuit, and awareness of personal impacts the moratorium was taking on their businesses.
  Between the meeting, and continuous contacts with builders, developers and even prospective homeowners, it was evident that significant “pain” was being inflicted, and that pain was getting more severe each day the moratorium continued.

Thursday, October 23
  Again, both parties were in court for a hearing on the injunction. Again, however, attorneys met with the Judge and emerged with a compromise that would be placed on the Court's record, with agreement from both parties’ attorneys to accept. This agreement would include the facilitation process, the dismissing of the lawsuit, a permanent end to the moratorium, and a special procedure to reinstate the suit with 7 days notice.
  Judge Neithercut clearly “urged” both parties to “accept” the agreement, but like the previous methodology, BAMF accepted, but the Township rejected, so we were back in court on Friday.

Friday, October 25
  Both parties were, again, back in court for a hearing on the injunction. Testimony began shortly after 2:00 p.m. and four witnesses made it to the stand.
  However, at roughly 4:50 p.m., in the midst of cross examination, Judge Neithercut adjourned the hearing to Thursday morning, October 30th. Furthermore, it became evident that the hearing would not be completed Thursday, and would be put off to a future date.

Weekend, October 26/27
  Over the weekend, BAMF President Steve Lissner, 1st Vice President Mark Nemer, and Executive V.P. Barry Simon had several discussions with an intermediary regarding a potential compromise, as the Township Board was set to meet on Monday morning.

October 27/28
  The Township Board met, and authorized Supervisor Jeffrey A. Zittel to lift the moratorium if the association would agree to dismiss the lawsuit. Late that afternoon, Barry was handed a letter from Mr. Zittel with the details, which he faxed to Association Directors for consideration. The proposal was similar to the agreement reached a week earlier, but without 2 items the Township found objectionable. By noon Tuesday a majority had accepted, and attorney Scott Fraim drew up the court order that brought the crisis to an end.
  The order contained the stipulations agreed to as follows:
  1) The Township will complete professional studies on the amount of tap-in fees by April 1, ‘04, and supply copies of the studies to BAMF and the court.
  2) If studies reveal the fees should be lower than $1,600, the differences will be refunded.
  3) The moratorium will be lifted without prejudice.
  4) The suit is dismissed without prejudice, and can be reinstated with seven days advance notice to the Township.
  By late Tuesday afternoon, Mr. Zittel had notified TV 12 and the Flint Journal of the agreement (which was signed by Judge Neithercut), and the 11 o’clock news ran the first story that the Township would likely issue permits starting Wednesday morning.

BAMF’s Conclusion:
  In the opening of this article we called the end of the moratorium “bittersweet.” Obviously, BAMF and its members are relieved by the lifting. And, we’re glad the township has agreed to justify fees, which is all we asked for ten months leading up to filing the lawsuit. However, the “bitter” comes from the fact that an issue between the association and township, was turned into uncertainty and hardship for builders, developers, and individuals wishing to become new homeowners in Grand Blanc Township. It’s on their behalf that the association took an accommodating posture throughout the past 3 weeks, intent on bringing the crisis to an end.

 

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Regarding Veritas’ Schedule

   Since summer of 1977, the Builders Association of Metro-Flint has published an association newsletter twice monthly, and for 22 years was able to consistently have it delivered in a timely manner. However, in 1999, we began to find that consistency was no longer a virtue as applied to the U.S. Postal Service, at least as it applied to “Pre-Sort Standard” mailing. Still, the service was normally tolerable, with most issues delivered in a reasonable period of time, at least for members in Genesee County.
  Last year, several issues were delayed for more than a week, and in 2003, things got worse. After problems early in the year, the late August and early September issues took nearly 2 weeks to get to their destinations, most arriving after the General Membership Meeting, presenting the proverbial “straw that broke the camel’s back.” So, beginning with the Special Issue of October 13th, we began sending Veritas first class, nearly doubling our mailing costs.
  Consequently, we’ve had to make some changes, the first of which is that Veritas will only be published once a month (unless “special issue” is necessary), normally at the end of each month’s first week. However, in this 21st Century world where some already consider printed matter obsolete, we’ll be adding a new service ... Continual updates on association and housing news on our website, www.bamfhome.com/ ... all with the same verve Veritas readers have come to expect (yes, “Seinfeld” section as well). So, look for the first “Veritas Update” coming in early November.

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Gephardt: New “Monarch” in Waiting (from Previous Issue)

  The call for an American monarchy was heard at the democrat presidential forum sponsored by Jesse Jackson’s Rainbow/PUSH Coalition on June 22, just prior to the Supreme Court’s verdict on the University of Michigan affirmative action challenge.
   Though all nine would-be leaders consistently patronized the largely African American audience, U.S. Representative, and former Speaker of the House, Dick Gephardt (MO) may have reached new heights (or depths) when he virtually stated, “Separation of powers be damned.” Going well beyond Trent Lott’s praise of Strom Thurmond,” and Rick Santorum’s alleged “gay bashing,” Gephardt promised to make the U.S. Supreme Court obsolete, at least when it’s opposed to his point of view.
   Said the wannabe president, “When I’m president, we’ll have executive orders to overcome any wrong thing the Supreme Court does tomorrow, or any other day.”
   Of course, while Lott and Santorum’s statements remained lead story news for days, Gephardt’s (except for a brief mention on fair and balanced Fox News Sunday) was barely referenced in the traditional media.
   Now, we don’t normally subscribe to the “liberal bias” theory, but it took the e-mail of an Associated Press story to bring the Gephardt statement to our attention ... Can you say “Double Standard?"

Barry

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Taxation and Finance ---- Tax Act of 2003 — Dividends and Capital Gains Rate Reductions

   As you may know, Congress recently passed legislation that reduces the amount of tax individuals are required to pay on dividends and capital gains.
  Under the recent legislation, any capital gains you recognize on transactions occurring on or after May 6, 2003, will be taxed at a rate of 15 percent. Any dividends you receive after December 31, ‘02, will also be taxed at a maximum rate of 15%. These rates do not apply to taxpayers in the 10% or 15% tax bracket.
  If you are in these tax brackets during 2003 through 2007, the amount of tax you will pay on dividends and capital gains will be five percent. In 2008, the amount of tax you pay on dividends and capital gains would be reduced to zero.
  These reduced rates are currently set to expire in 2008. In addition to reducing the amount of tax you will be subject to on any dividends and capital gains you receive, these changes may also allow you to reduce any estimated tax payments you are required to make. Additionally, if you have taxes withheld from a paycheck and you anticipate significant levels of dividends or capital gains in 2003, you might need to modify your withholding levels.
  If you have any questions about the reduced tax rates on dividends and capital gains and how they affect your return or estimated tax payments, please contact your professional tax advisor.

R, P & T

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Beyond Seinfeld: It’s still about "Nothing" in particular

  Talk About Advertising Bringing Diminishing Returns

   A recent Wall Street Journal editorial was found a fascinating method of supporting it’s theory that heavy campaign spending “makes for a better informed electorate.” To show how important campaign spending is to the electoral process, it quoted a Cato Institute study (which could have been done as well by Kato Kallen) claiming the first $230,000 in spending by new Congressional candidates provides 50% of the voters with an understanding of a candidate’s ideology. The next $270,000 another 16% the same knowledge; and, $500,000 in additional spending brings another 21% the same knowledge.
  Now, we’re all for an “informed electorate,” but we wonder about the impact on how a congressman views the world from a fiscal perspective. Perhaps it’s the electoral process that contributes to the fiscal incompetence that’s run rampant in D.C. for decades ... consider:
  The average Congressional District has 666,000 residents, of which some 488,000 are over 18. If 75% of adults are registered, that means the total number of potential voters is roughly 366,000. So, the first $230,000 would make 183,000 voters aware, at a cost of $1.26 per voter. The next $270,000 get the candidate’s “ideological fix” to 58,560 voters at $4.61 per voter. And, the additional $500,000 gives access to 76,860 voters, at $6.50 each.
  The editorial noted that the ability to spend large numbers of dollars is particularly necessary for non-incumbents. So, by the time someone makes it to Congress, they’re already conditioned to excessive spending with diminished returns ... is it any wonder why few in the House or Senate show any concern for fiscal responsibility?

“Seinfeld” Briefs:
   Well, with baseball mercifully over, isn’t great to know that Detroit won’t be left out Jay Leno’s one liners, at least as long as football’s still in season? Do you realize, the Lions will be lucky to win 8 out of 48 games in (hopefully) Matt Millen’s 3 year tenure. It almost makes you wonder if it was such a good idea to bring “Flint” into the “Metro-Detroit” area.
# # #
  While the Lions were in Chicago last Sunday, Detroit was busy hosting another fiasco, ironically at the Tigers’ owner’s Fox Theater. And, the team playing, also ironically, had nine players, most as inept as their tiger counterparts.
  Yes, the nine Democrats seeking the presidency were there for a “debate,” but more telling than what each said was the crowd reaction, as hundreds of party activists were there to cheer on their favorites ... and CHEER they did! For Al Sharpton and Howard Dean. For Carol Mosely Braun and Dennis Kucinich. The further left the candidate, and more outrageous the statement, the louder the applause. And, considering the audience will be active in the state caucus process, Sen. Joe Lieberman had to believe his chances would be better challenging President Bush in GOP primary.

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Association News and Events by Laura

  

Comedian Headline’s Meeting

   It’s been a rather intense year for General Membership meetings, beginning with the “Town Hall” session on the countywide moratorium, and concluding in the similar meeting on Grand Blanc Township. However, this year we added a November 12 meeting, so perhaps it’s time to lighten up a bit.
  So, rather than a typical program, the headliner for November 12th is Ann Arbor’s “Jimmy Rascal,” whose specialty is improvisational comedy. Jimmy’s worked for some of the world’s largest companies, and Wednesday evening he’ll provide much needed entertainment to association members.
  As always, the evening begins with hors d’oeuvres and cocktails at 6:00 p.m., with the meeting kicking off around 7:30, with the formal election of Officers and Directors (nominations were closed at the 10/22 meeting) for 2004.
  So, join us for an evening of fun at Bonaparte's, and help us honor the officers and directors who put in a monumental performance during the most hectic of years. And, so we can make a reasonable guarantee with the restaurant, please R.S.V.P. by Thursday afternoon, November 6th.

  Despite the turmoil of the past three weeks, nearly all reports suggest the Fall Parade of Homes was the most successful ever, with some participants calling traffic better than many of the spring events (normally there's a significant drop between Spring and Fall). Adding credence to those claims is the fact that website traffic for October was the virtual equal of May (normally it's 30% lower).
What's been most satisfying in regard to the event were the numbers of participants stating they had direct sales during the 16 day period. Another notable item was that all but two participants felt the event was exceptional.

  NAHB Convention: Remember that pre-registration ends in December...if you're planning on attending, call the association office, or go to buildershow.com on the web.

  We now have a schedule for '04 General Membership meetings. The first meeting of the year will be held at Bonaparte's on Wednesday. January 21st, and the remainder of the meetings are set for each second to last Wednesday of months we hold meetings... See Veritas schedule above.

 

 

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Economic Update: Soaring “growth” without jobs?

  If there was ever a time we wished we could wait until next week’s employment and manufacturing reports before publishing “update,” this was it. This (Thursday) morning the Commerce Department announced that the economy grew at a rate of 7.2% in the 3rd quarter, sending stocks upward and bonds retreating. The preliminary report represented the strongest quarter since 1984, when the nation was coming out of its worst downturn since the “Great Depression.” To put the report in perspective, only once during the economic boom of the ‘90s did any quarter rise at a 7% rate, and that was in the final quarter of the decade. However, the Commerce Department data still make one wonder if we’re looking at a booming economy with no semblance of job creation. Although it created jobs in the final month of the quarter, the net result in the 3 month period was a loss of 41,000 jobs, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data. And, last month’s manufacturing report showed that declining employment in the sector was getting worse. Still, the growth report is a strong positive for the nation’s economic psyche, and may help stimulate an exceptional fourth quarter as well. Business spending was an important contributor the the strong third quarter, rising 11.1%, representing the largest rise since early 2000, including a 15% rise in equipment and software buying. But, when it comes down to it, housing still carried the day, as housing investment soared to a 20.4% annual pace, up from a 6.6% pace in the 2nd quarter. And, with all these positives, there was little to be concerned about in regard to inflation. The department’s “price deflator,” its measure of inflation, rose at a 1.7% rate, though up from the second quarter, still well below any number that would cause concern. Industrial Production: The economic growth report, though much stronger than nearly any analyst anticipated, shouldn’t have come as a total surprise. Roughly two weeks earlier the Federal Reserve reported that industrial production rose a solid 0.4% in September after falling 0.1% during August. Furthermore, in that report, we found that factory output jumped 0.7%, primarily due to an increase in automobile production, as automakers poured out their new '04 models to dealers.

Related Notes:

  While the economy was growing in the third quarter, the index of leading economic indicators, designed to project growth six months in advance, experienced its first set back in 4 months, according to the Conference Board.
  Falling 0.2% in September, the report suggests that, although the economy is improving, the road ahead is not without roadblocks. Six of the ten indicators went negative during the month, including building permits and unemployment claims.

# # #

  Perhaps the primary reason for the lagging employment data (as we often note) relates to Health Insurance costs which, we're now told, are expected to rise by another 12% as we reach 2004, marking the fifth consecutive year for a double digit rise. Those expectations mean that costs will have more than doubled since 1999. Still, an optimist may wish to point out a favorable side to this report: Since costs grew 16% this year, it means they’re only growing 75% as fast next year ... sure!
  Next year, according to a report by the Kaiser Foundation, employees are expected to contribute 19%, on average to the cost for individual health coverage; 22% for family coverage.
# # #
  On an issue we’ve been following for a couple of years, Toyota was less than 2% behind Chrysler in U.S. sales in September, and had closed within 2.8% year to date. A year earlier, the 9 month margin was 4.2% ... so we’ll be looking forward to seeing October data when they’re released next week.

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Housing Industry Update: starts; sales; etc.

   Starting right here at home, housing activity remained solid in September. Although local activity’s not likely to break any all time record (as national activity surely will) the first three quarters of ‘03 are well beyond expectations.
  Beginning with Housing Consultants’ report in mid-October, we found that non-rental housing permits are up 7.5% across southeast Michigan, including a 9.5% rise in Genesee County.
  The HC report was relatively close to a Federal Government report that had single family activity in the “Metro- Detroit” area up 8.9%, while the “Flint” part of the area was up 11.4%.
  What’s also notable about the Flint area reports is that over all permits (including rentals) were down 16.6% (HC) and 9.8% (fed gov’t) respectively. The lower numbers were due, primarily, to a 49% decline in Grand Blanc Township (287), as last year’s surge in rental activity appears to have come to an end. While rental activity had averaged 400 units or less most of the past decade, they surged to the 650 unit range in the early 2000s. After peaking at 835 units in ‘01, and falling back to 590 last in ‘02, we’ve only experienced 125 units through the first 3 quarters of 2003, according to Housing Consultants.

  In 2002, single family housing starts hit 1.36 million units, beating the all time record set three years prior by 4.2%. This year, through September, single family starts at running at a rate of 1.44 million. If this rate continues through the remainder of the year, it will smash the ‘02 record by 6.3%.
  Perhaps more notable is that, since June, the single family sector’s been running at a rate that’s steadily above 1.5 million units, a whopping 11% stronger than last year’s record.
  Of course, driving starts has been an incredible year of new home sales, which have topped the million unit rate for 13 of the past 14 months. To put that in perspective, when the rate hit 1.025 million in August 2002, it became the first time the barrier was broken since December ‘00 (and the second time on record). Furthermore, sales set a new record at 973,000 units last year, which was 7% above the record set a year earlier. In ‘03 sales are running at a rate of 1.074 million, which is 10.4% above that record set last year.

And, if new housing activity weren’t enough, the National Association of Realtors’ report (this past Monday) showed existing home sales, after setting records for 2 previous months, rose 3.6% in September to a record rate of 6.69 million. Now the rate for the year is 6.million, which is 8.6% higher than the year end record (5.56 million) set through the end of last year.

  

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