November 4, 2005

Inside Veritas -
Article 1 -
Tax “Reform” Proposals Hold Serious Danger for Housing
Article 2 -
Housing and Economic Briefs: Income; GDP; above forecasts
Article 3 - Existing Market Activity
Article 4 - Mortgage Rate Activity
Article 5 -
Taxation and Finance by Rachor; Purman & Tucker CPAs
New Tax “Credit” for Energy Efficient Homes
Association News Update From Laura
New Construction and Sales Activity

BS: Still about Nothing in particular
"Big 3" Hit New Low in Market Share
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Tax “Reform” Proposals Hold Serious Danger for Housing

It probably should have been a day earlier because the proposals the President’s “tax reform advisory panel” submitted on November 1sr was filled with “treats,” but also contained a number of “tricks.” Un-fortunately, housing got hit with the tricks!
But most annoying is that, while these proposals will never become law, they’ll consume millions of human hours and billions of dollars in wasted activity (not to mention the waste of paper and ink) by organizations with a stake in the tax code to assure these insane proposals won’t see the “light of day.”
The proposals would do the following: Cut capital gains tax to between 3.75% and 8.25%, in one proposal (tax interest and all capital gains at 15% in the other; Reduce the number of tax brackets (top marginal rate would be 30% in one; 33% in the other); Capping the deductibility of Health Insur-ance Premiums; and, of course, “simplify” tax filing. But, the one that will really galvanize the troops is the change in housing tax incentives.
First, the panel recommend lowering the mortgage interest cap (the amount of the loan on which homeowners receive a break for interest paid) from $1 million to the regional average house price ($227,000 to $412,000). The deduction would be converted to a 15% “credit” on the amount of interest paid up to the level of the cap. Further-more, all state and local taxes would no longer be deductible (property taxes as well).
Even before the proposals were official, the National Builder and Realtor Associations made note of their likely negative impact on housing values in the U.S., as the real cost of purchase would rise dramatically.

On the other side, the Wall Street Journal’s editorial board called it a “sensible pro growth launching pad.”

So, brace yourselves. As we turn the National Debate away from Scooter Libby, Sam Alito, and Harriet Miers, we’ll be hit with a barrage of pros, cons, and disaster claims, over this new fight for “reform.” But remember, 20 years ago we argued against a proposal that, we said, would devastate commercial real estate, to no avail. We were right then ... and, we’re right on this issue as it relates to housing.

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Housing & Economic Briefs: Income; GDP; above forecasts

On Halloween, the Commerce Department announced personal income rose at an annual rate of 1.7% in September, well above the 0.4% rate anticipated by a survey of economists. At the same time, the Department said Personal Consumption rose as well, up 0.5%, after declining at the same rate in August.
What may be more important in regard to the health of U.S. consumerism is that personal disposable income not only rose 1.9% in September, but was revised to a 1.1% jump in August. Originally, August’s number was reported as a 0.1% decline.
The other closely watched item in the monthly report, the “price index for personal consumption,” showed that inflation (disregarding food and energy) is running at a 2% rate over the past 12 months, the high side, but still within, the Federal Re-serve’s “comfort zone.”
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The previous Friday we received the news
that the impact of Gulf Coast hurricanes was less than expected, as Gross Domestic Product rose at a 3.8% rate in the third quarter. While the data show the economy continues to grow, it confirmed it “weathered” the devastation from “Katrina and Rita,” and that growth was significantly stronger than expected.
While the consensus forecast of economists was for 3.6% growth, there’s a feel

ing within the analyst community that, without the storms, a rate in the mid 4% range would have been achieved.

What’s somewhat amazing in recent GDP reports is just how stable growth’s been during the past 2 years. The highest rate during that period was 4.3% in the first quarter of ‘04, while the lowest was 3.3% in last year’s fourth quarter (see chart), representing the longest streak of such stability since the end of World War II.

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U.S. manufacturing activity experienced another month of solid expansion in October, as represented by the Institute for Supply Management’s reading of 59.1 (recall, readings above 50 mean sector expansion).

Like the GDP and Income re-ports, the ISM surpassed forecasts by a solid margin. Still, as we’ve been noting for several months, we’ve yet to see any notable results from, what is now, a 29 month expansion. Its employment index continues to show growth, now for 22 of the past 24 months, but its promise to eventually show up remains hollow. September’s estimates suggest manufacturing sector employment’s down 100,000 in that 2 year period.

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Construction spending set another record in September, rising 0.5% to a whopping seasonally adjusted rate of $1.12 trillion. As would be expected, residential construction led the way, up a full 1% at an annual rate of $624.3 billion, according to Commerce Dept. data. Also, office and commercial building construction showed big gains.

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A recent “Businessweek” article focused on a growing housing movement: “3 Generations Under One Roof” told of growing numbers of extended families living together due, in part, to the soaring home prices in many of the nation’s most ex-pensive markets.

While we’ve all noticed the rise in upscale homes with dual master suites and “in-law quarters,” the article quoted Censusdata that show the “number of households with three or more generations living under 1 roof grew 38% from 1990 to 2000, versus 8% for those with just 2 generations.” In fact, the data suggest that 4% of U.S. households (5.6% of California’s) are now multi-generational.

Of course, while costs motivate some, a significant reason for the rise comes from large numbers of immigrant families from cultures where multigenerational living is the norm, rather than the exception. Still, it is a growing segment of the housing market, and one that’s likely to grow even stronger in the near future.

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In a way, it came as a real surprise when “Money” magazine found that the “Motor City” is the most expensive place in America to own a car. Quoting a study by “Runzheimer International” that calculated costs, based on a “fully loaded 2006 Ford 500 SEL (driven 15,000 annually for four years), Money said the annual cost in Detroit was “an amazing $11,844.”

Why the extreme cost? How about auto insurance at a rate of $5,162! So, with exorbitant property and income taxes, we now find there’s “another” reason why homebuyers are likely to avoid Motown.

After Motown, it’s the city of Brotherly Love that comes in second, though still a hundred per month less than Detroit. The least expensive on the list was Knoxville, where the same car would cost $7,399 in a year.

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Existing Market Activity

It’s now the seventh consecutive month that existing home sales have remained above the 7 million rate as realtors report September’s activity was at the same level as August (second highest on record). However, it was the south that seemed to carry the industry, as the West and Midwest were both down from August, while the Northeast is was up marginally.

Prices continued their double digit climb, up 13.4% from 9/04 at a median price of $212,000, and inventory rose to 2.85 million (a 4.7 months’ supply).

Michigan/Flint Area

As you can see below, sales are virtually flat in comparison to 04 at both the state and local level, as are prices (up 1.4% in Michigan, down 1.2% locally). However, from a local perspective, we find that prices in the past six months are up significantly, and averaged $143,075 during the second & third quarters (9.5% above ‘04’s level).

As we’ve been noting for several months, the local concern has been the amount of inventory, with nearly 6,000 listings on any given day. Sales were at 576 in September, making the quarterly total 1,669, which corresponds to an annual rate of 6,025 units. So, at the quarterly rate, inventory stood at an 11.5 months’ supply.

 

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Mortgage Rate Activity

By the look of the in the “7 Weeks” chart, the direction of 30 Year Fixed rates is rather obvious. In fact, they passed the 6% plateau during the week of 10/13, the first time since the last week in March. What’s notable is the consistency of the past seven weeks, almost suggesting the bond market may finally be buying in to Federal Reserve policy.

We’d also point out that October’s average (6.07) was the first month since July ‘04 that fixed rates averaged above 6%. And, as bond prices continued to decline late last week, we’d expect the gradual rise in fixed rates to continue in the immediate future.


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Taxation and Finance by Rachor; Purman & Tucker CPAs
New Tax “Credit” for Energy Efficient Homes


Under a provision in the recently enacted Energy Act, eligible contractors can qualify for a new tax credit when they construct qualified new energy-efficient homes. (Tax credits are more valuable to taxpayers than deductions because they are subtracted dollar-for-dollar off the bottom line of your federal tax bill.) The credit is either $2,000 or $1,000 per qualifying home.

Here is an overview of the new credit.

Credit requirements:

To qualify, the structure:

(1) Must be located in the U.S.;

(2) Its construction must be substantially completed after Aug. 8, 2005, and it must be acquired in 2006 or 2007;

(3) Must meet specific energy saving requirements explained below;

(4) Must be built by the "eligible contractor" (the person who constructed the home,

or the manufacturer, if the structure is a manufactured home); and

(5) Must be acquired by a person from the eligible contractor for use as a residence during the tax year.

When the $2,000 credit applies.

A home qualifies for the $2,000 credit if it: Is certified in accordance with guidance to be issued by IRS to have a projected level of annual heating and cooling energy consumption that meets the standards for a 50% reduction in usage, compared to a comparable dwelling built in accordance with the standards of chapter 4 of the 2003 International Energy Code as in effect on Aug. 8, 2005, and the Federal minimum efficiency standards specified in the Code and its building envelope component improvements account for at least one-fifth of the 50% reduction.

A manufactured home qualifies for the $2,000 credit if it meets the above requirements and conforms to Federal Manufactured Home Construction and Safety Standards (section 3280 of title 24, Code of Federal Regulations).

When $1,000 credit applies.

(Editor’s Note: The $1,000 credit applies to Manufactured Homes specifically: If you’re interested in the details, call Barry at the association office.)

Other rules.

The new credit is part of the general business credit. No credits attributable to energy efficient homes can be carried back to any tax year ending on or before the effective date of the credit. There's a basis reduction in the property for the amount of credit claimed.



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Beyond Seinfeld: It’s still about "Nothing" in particular

PGA Stuck in the Deep Rough?
A year or so ago, we noted the plight of the golf industry, as the number of rounds played each year were declining at a rapid pace. Golf courses, already the only “green space” decried by environmentalists, were struggling for survival. Private clubs were begging for members and (ironically) public courses were being converted (en masse) to housing developments. But, with Phil Mickelson challenging Tiger Woods for the hearts of fans, the PGA appeared to be thriving.

However, appearances can be deceiving because the driving force of professional sports, television advertising revenues, may be poised to impact the PGA in much the way they hit the National Hockey League last year.

Over the past four years, ratings for PGA tournaments fell 19.4% according to Nielsen Media research. Consequently, ABC, NBC and CBS will likely lose a combined $50 million on their golf contracts in 2005, and are about to embark on negotiations for a new (four year) deal beginning in ‘07.

The truth is, the golf season begins winding down in late summer as its star attractions only play sporadically after the final major (PGA Championship) event (after all, the season begins in January). And, golf just can’t compete for weekend audiences with football (NFL & NCAA) or NASCAR’s

“Chase to the Cup,” yet it runs into November.

Last month Businessweek reported “PGA Bigwigs are considering moving the season ending Tour Champion-ship to mid September,” which would, realistically, cut the schedule by seven or eight tournaments. Would anyone like to guess which of “Buick’s” sponsored tournaments would likely be cut out?

Seinfeld Briefs:

Had to laugh Tuesday at a Tuesday morning “news” show coverage of the “Alito” Supreme Court nomination. They showed a photo of the nominee’s family, ironically standing under the (Bill) Clinton portrait that hangs in the White House. The photo’s illusion had Clinton’s hand on the shoulder of Alito’s “attractive” daughter, and the obvious commentary followed. That morning “news” show is the relatively new (on Detroit’s UPN 50 since 9/12/05) ... so, we’d add, if “Good Morning America” and/or “Today” put you back to sleep, you may want to give UPN’s “Daily Buzz” a try from 5:00 a.m to 8!

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Association News and Events by Laura

Welcome New Member

 

Mogford Concrete
Michele Mogford
Sponsor: Kathy White

 

The October meeting’s “Night at the Derby” was an evening of “fun” for the more than 100 members and guests in attendance, with six “winners” taking home a variety of dinner and movie certificates. It was a first experience with “interactive” entertainment and, we’re confident, it won’t be the last. In fact, judging by the shouting and cheering during throughout the event, we’ll likely do something similar sooner than later.

On that note, we wish to, once again thank the Michigan Construction Industry Mutual (MCIM) (see below) for its sponsorship of the “Night at the Derby.” And, wish to extend another “Thank You” to our October meeting sponsor, James Lumber, for the refreshments that lasted well into the night.

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Also during the evening, we held we held our annual “Board of Directors’” elections, and passed amendments to our Bylaws that transfer the election of officers to the Board.

As nominated, Ted Macksey, Bart Horcha, Mark Nemer, Bob Vance, Tim Glavin and Vic Lukasavitz were all elected to the Board. Officers for 2006 will be chosen at the “annual” Direct-ors’ meeting in December.

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As we highlighted on page #1, the annual Holiday Open House at the BAMF office is set for Wednesday, November 30th, beginning at 4:00 p.m. and running to 7:30 (and likely beyond). This is the event we added in 2001 as a way to say “thanks” has been the traditional “kick-off” to the Holiday Season ever since.

With hors d’oeuvres by “Elegant Catering,” deserts by Laura, and liquid refreshments by Tracey, it’s become a favorite of members and friends alike.... So, mark it on your calendar today, and don’t forget to join us on the 30th!

It’s at 3059 Tri-Park Drive (off Dort, between Grand Blanc and Reid Roads) --- and, please let us know that you’ll be there by calling (810) 603-2200.

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Finally, as you’ve probably noticed, we’ve slightly changed the look of this issue of Veritas, and hope you like this “test run,” which may lead to additional upgrades in the future.

 

 

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New Construction and Sales Activity

There hasn’t been much to suggest there’s any slowdown on the way for the U.S. housing industry. As you can see below, single family starts have been running ahead of last year’s record pace for six consecutive months, and are currently 6.3% ahead of ‘04’s first three quarters. And, we can anticipate the run will continue since permits were on the rise in September, up 4.4% from August.

Also, we found sales running way beyond last year’s record level as well. The Department of Commerce data for September show the sales’ rate at 1.22 million units, with 995,000 new homes sold through the first 9 months, up 6.4% from the first three quarter of 2004.

However, perhaps more notable is the importance of, just, one section of the nation to the soaring 2005 sales’ rate. While sales are up by 60,000 units on a year to date basis, the South is responsible for 86.7% of the rise, and the West is responsible for the rest.

While this may seem shocking, it shouldn’t come as all that much of a surprise considering a Florida market that’s currently responsible for nearly 30% of the U.S. rise in construction.

State/Region/Local

If we were to believe Census Bureau data, things are booming in rural Michigan. While its Metropolitan data show single family permits down 21.2% for the first nine months (in comparison to ‘04), its “Statewide” numbers show a mild decline of 2,500 units or 7.3%. In other words, the Bureau would have us believe that rural Michigan is running 17.7% ahead of last year --- We can only hope that no one (of significance) places any credence in the statewide data, as they’re derived more from estimates than reporting.

Its Metropolitan data, on the other hand, at least in entirety, correspond (reasonably) to the permit counts of Housing Consultants in Southeast Michigan, which show single family and condo activity down 3,488 units (18.5%) in comparison to 2004, with Genesee County down by 116 units (7.5%).

However, it’s been an unusual year for Michigan, with permits booming early in the year. As you can see in the chart in the final column, the local data have been down in each of the past six months.

So, we looked at 2nd and 3rd quarter data for an impact, and found: Since the end of March, the Southeast Region is down 29.9%, while Genesee County is off 21.5%.

While these numbers seem drastic, one has to remember that the industry built at a modern day record level in ‘04. By year’s end, we’d expect local numbers similar to 1997, in the 1,700 to 1,800 range.


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"Big 3" Hit New Low in Market Share

While U.S. Auto sales plunged to their lowest level since 1998, the “Big Three’s” market share dove to new depths. And, while General Motors and Ford sales declined 26% in October, compared to October ‘04, Chrysler (which had been gaining sales most of ‘05) also slipped, though only by 3%.
The only companies that showed year over year gains for the month were Toyota (1.3%), Honda (0.4%) and Mitsubishi (1.4%).
In all, sales totaled 1.147 million for the month, down nearly 190,000 from last October. More troubling, however, is the decline in U.S. market share, which was down to 55.2% for the month.
Chrysler immediately responded to the downturn by announcing a $1,000 incentive, and we can assume that Ford and GM will follow suit.
As you can see below, October had an impact on year to date data, as the “Big 3’s” market share fell to 60%, down 1/2% from the nine month data featured in our previous issue. Now, the decline is up to 3.1% of the U.S. market since the same period in 2003. During the same period Japan’s three largest companies gained 3.9% of the same market.




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