Inside Veritas -
Article 1
- Michigan’s home appreciation still lags behind the nation
Article 2
- Regarding Veritas’ Schedule
Article 3 - Housing Industry News Briefs — November
Article 4 - Taxation and Finance - New tax revisions make
year end review particularly important in ‘03
Article 5 -
Association News Update From Laura
Economic Update - Even
Manufacturing Employment?
BS: Still about Nothing in
particular
Housing Industry Update
Would you like to see a previous Veritas Issues? Click Here
Michigan’s home appreciation still lags behind the nation
   This morning the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight
released its 3rd quarter House Price Index (measuring the real rate of appreciation
across the nation) and Michigan (which led the nation during the final half
of the ‘90s) continued to fall further behind the nation as a whole, ranking
44th of the 50 states. Michigan homes (on the average) gained 2.98% in value
in the past twelve months, barely half of the 5.6% national average.
   The state’s low ranking has been continuous since late 2000, however this
is the first time in eight years that Michigan’s 5 year appreciation rate
has fallen below the national average. While an average home in the U.S. has
gained 38% in value over the past 60 months, the average Michigan home has
gained just 30%.
   The OFHEO report continues to show why we shouldn’t put so much emphasis on
median price levels (see related brief on page 7). Earlier this month, the
National Association of Realtors said metropolitan median prices rose 10.1%
over the previous twelve months, which is nearly double the rate of appreciation.
   On a more local note, “Detroit’s” index was up 2.65% for the year while “Flint’s”
rose 2.38%. Lansing led the state at 4.56.
   As we’ve noted in the past, there’s often a 100% differential between rising
median prices and rising values at a time of historically low interest rates,
and this seems to be the case at first glance of this HPI.
   Since summer of 1977, the Builders Association of Metro-Flint
has published an association newsletter twice monthly, and for 22 years was
able to consistently have it delivered in a timely manner. However, in 1999,
we began to find that consistency was no longer a virtue as applied to the
U.S. Postal Service, at least as it applied to “Pre-Sort Standard” mailing.
Still, the service was normally tolerable, with most issues delivered in a
reasonable period of time, at least for members in Genesee County.
   Last year, several issues were delayed for more than a week, and in 2003,
things got worse. After problems early in the year, the late August and early
September issues took nearly 2 weeks to get to their destinations, most arriving
after the General Membership Meeting, presenting the proverbial “straw that
broke the camel’s back.” So, beginning with the Special Issue of October 13th,
we began sending Veritas first class, nearly doubling our mailing costs.
   Consequently, we’ve had to make some changes, the first of which is that Veritas
will only be published once a month (unless “special issue” is necessary),
normally at the end of each month’s first week. However, in this 21st Century
world where some already consider printed matter obsolete, we’ll be adding
a new service ... Continual updates on association and housing news on
our website, www.bamfhome.com/ ... all with the same verve Veritas
readers have come to expect (yes, “Seinfeld” section as well). So, look for
the first “Veritas Update” coming in early November.
  For several months we’ve made the point that far
too much attention is given to median home prices. Our arguments
relate to the fact that the media continuously gives the false impression
that a rise in price levels is tantamount to a rise in values when, in reality,
price levels are distorted by fluctuating costs of homeownership. And, our
argument is consistently corroborated by the quarterly comparisons of the
“Realtors” metropolitan price reports and the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise
Oversight (OFHEO) House Price Index, which far more accurately reflects real
variances in home values.
   Our concern? That higher mortgage rates will bring lower median price levels
in the same manner that lower interest rates raised price levels, as more
buyers purchase less expensive homes. As the media continue to misinterpret
the data, it will create the false impression that homes are actually depreciating.
   Well, to validate our concern, along came a Wall Street Journal feature
last month citing a study by Fidelity National Financial regarding
the impact of higher interest rates on the 25 largest metro-areas in the nation.
The study found that in 12 of the 25 areas, median prices will decline if
fixed rates rise to 8%, with “Boston” showing the biggest decline.
   So, how does the WSJ interpret the findings? Well, how about, “a median
priced home in Boston, currently worth $407,000, would see its price tumble
by $59,000 by ‘06.”
   Now, if the Wall Street Journal doesn’t understand the difference between
value and price level, what will Peter Jennings do with the story? Create
a “War of the Worlds’” like panic?
   “Et Tu” Detroit News? While we have come to expect antidevelopment commentary from the editorial pages of the Flint Journal, Free Press and Oakland Press, this past Saturday’s editorial in the Detroit News came as a shock. Citing a study by a liberal research group, the normally pro-growth News said “impact fees could be a useful tool in allowing governments to fairly spread the costs of development (such as roads, water and sewer lines).” The Public Interest Research Group in Michigan (PIRGIM) estimates its “proposed fees would impose $35,000 in additional costs for each new house or other development unit in Macomb Township,” according to the editorial. And, although the News finds that a “bit steep,” it endorses the idea in form of enabling legislation to allow such fees in Michigan. KolliFORNya here we come!
   Immigrants to Stimulate; Alter; Housing Activity? A couple
of articles caught our eye (last week) regarding the impact of immigrants
on the housing market. The first came from NAHB, noting that immigration has
accelerated since the census, with a net of about 1.5 million coming to this
country annually." Furthermore, NAHB forecasts the annual figure to rise,
averaging 1.7 million from 2002 to 2012, creating an even bigger market for
“both rental and for-sale markets.”
   The other article came from the Detroit Free Press, highlighting the
difference in the housing desires of foreign born consumers. The primary focus
of the Freep article was on cultural differences which were evident
in some families building “mini-mansions on a highway that carries an average
of 72,000 motorists daily.” The point of the article was that, in some cultures,
it’s “prestigious to live in the center of a city” or on the main thoroughfare,
where the home has higher visibility. In other words, why live in a secluded
“gated community” where no one can see your apparent wealth?
  (Irony Defined) Ann Arbor says “GO GREEN!” Despite the
fact its home town offensive line virtually “paved over the Green (Spartans)”
three days earlier, Ann Arbor made amends November 4, as its voters overwhelmingly
approved its “Parks and GREENbelt proposal,” voting nearly 2 to 1 in
favor of a 1/2 mill (30 year) levy to purchase development rights on more
than 7,000 acres of farmland and open space in, and around, the city. Since
a similar countywide proposal was defeated a few years ago, the City and Township
kept the vote within their respective borders, virtually assuring victory
before the voters went to the polls (AA overwhelmingly approved the previous
proposal). So, despite a valiant effort by “Citizens for Responsible Growth,”
the landslide in the “Peoples’ Republic of Ann Arbor” was hardly a surprise.
   Of course, the real concern of builders and developers across the state is
“will this cancer spread?” The answer is probably not! Unlike other central
cities, Ann Arbor has a soaring tax base and extraordinary property values
(by far the highest in the Midwest) — add to that its unique liberal bent,
making it somewhat of a “joke” in many circles, and we doubt it will be seen
as a target for aspiration from the Detroits, Flints, and Saginaws ... of
course, if we’re talking the Grand Rapids' and KalamaZOOs, that may be another
story!
   With year-end fast approaching, this is an excellent time for
a final analysis of your financial and tax planning to ensure you and your
business take advantage of the numerous tax breaks available in the new, as
well as older, legislation. It is vital to regularly digest and review pertinent
financial and tax records.
This review should include analysis of the following:
* Cash Flow Schedule (listing of income and expenses)
* Asset/Liability Listing
* Insurance Policy Listing
* Financial Goals Statement
* Checklist for Financial Planning Review
* Financial Goals Statement
* Other Relevant Information
   An annual review is especially important this year in light of the changes
that have taken place in the markets and the revisions to the income tax laws
by the $350 billion Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003,
as well as the continuing temporary phase-out of the estate tax laws.
   To arrange your year-end meeting, please contact your financial and or tax
professional.
R, P & T
Beyond Seinfeld: It’s still about "Nothing"
in particular
  Is Iraq a “Steve Forbes’ Flat
   Just when we thought the war in Iraq had something to do with
a despicable dictator; or maybe terrorism, we find what’s perhaps a more frightening
purpose. An early November Washington Post article told how Paul Bremer,
the U.S. Administrator in Baghdad, placed a “Flat Tax” in Iraq with “no more
than the stroke of a pen.” Bremer’s writ “will slash Saddam Hussein’s top
tax rate for individuals and businesses from 45% to 15%.”
   Now, what’s scary about the decision to give Iraq a flat tax, is that
it was discussed by Department of Treasury officials “before the war as preliminary
planning,” according to the article. So, one has to speculate that, in at
least some officials’ minds, there was thought of bringing the nation up from
its ashes, with due credit to the concept.
   Since it’s frequently stated that states are mini-laboratories to try out
concepts for the nation as a whole, could we be be viewing a Middle East laboratory
for another Steve Forbes run in ‘08? Only Hillary could be so lucky!
Talk About “Conspiracies”
   Though we’re often critical of Disney’s Network (ABC), one has to give them
a lot of credit for its promotion of the new “reality” show (Simple Life)
premiering 12/2. Prior to October, Socialite Paris Hilton was hardly known
to mainstream America. Then she was featured on an NFL game broadcast for
“dating” Bears’ linebacker Brian Urlacher.
   Next, a hard-core video of Ms. Hilton appeared on the Internet, and “mainstream”
reporters had something new to focus on (before Michael Jackson’s arrest).
Now, her show debuts Tuesday, and we'll all be watching.
“Seinfeld” Briefs:
   Say it ain’t so Ahrnoldt! Although we’ve come to question
the ability of Oakland Press editorial writers to comprehend reality, we were
somewhat concerned at its 11/24 lead that “Schwarzenegger may lead drive for
‘smart’ urban growth.” Not that we’re concerned about his activities as Governor
... but if he comes back from the future in “Terminator 4” to stop the “Sprawl”
that eventually destroyed mankind in the 24th Century (or thereabouts). It
could be the biggest environment sensitive movie since “Godzilla versus the
Smog Monster.”
   We always knew U-M Football was a “religion,” but now we have evidence.
In a dispute between a homeowner and neighborhood association, the Court said
stonework that read “Jesus is King” was not in violation of deed restrictions.
Said defendants’ attorney, it’s comparable to flying the U-M Flag in support
of the football team. “If you can say you’re for U-M, you can say you’re for
Jesus,” she told the Oakland Press.
# # #
   A quote for the times by Sophie Freud (a psychology Professor no less) regarding Sigmund: “In my eyes, both Adolf Hitler and my grandfather were false prophets of the 20th Century."
  
|
   The 3rd annual Holiday Open House is set for Wednesday, December
10th, beginning at 4:00 p.m., and supposedly ending by 7:00, at the
Builders Association Office (3059 Tri-Park Drive; Grand Blanc). Don’t
forget to join us for hors d’oeuvres, libation, and the holiday spirit
that’s put this event on the “must attend” list since its inception
in 2001. |
   The 1st General Membership meeting of ‘04 is set for Wednesday
evening January 21st at Bonaparte’s. We’ll be announcing details at
the beginning of the year, however, this is the event where we have
the formal installation of the new Officers and Directors elected in
November, and the presentation of awards and recognition from 2003.
So, mark the date on your calendar today! |
||
Economic Update: Even Manufacturing Employment?
  With November's economic reports, it would almost make even the ultimate
skeptic believe the economy's turned the proverbial corner. Early last month
the Labor Department not only reported a decline in the jobless rate, it also
said the economy created 12,000 jobs during the month, on the heels of rising
an additional 125,000 in September. And, near the month's end, the Commerce
Department revised 3rd quarter growth upward to a 20 year high of 8.2%.
  However, from this column's perspective, the most optimistic news came this
(Monday) morning, when the Institute of Supply Management releases its report
on Manufacturing activity showing, not only the continuation of growth in
manufacturing, but also growth in sector employment for the first time in
over three years (we'll see if it registers in this Friday's jobs' report).
Even consumer confidence experienced a pre-holiday turnaround.
Economic growth
  The rise in Gross Domestic Product in the third quarter was revised to 8.2
percent, making it the fastest growing quarter since the beginning of 1984,
as capital spending (rather than consumer spending) providing the major
impetus. That's not to say consumers didn't do their part. In fact, consumer
spending was up 6.4%, well above the 2nd quarter rate of 3.3%. However, investment
by businesses rose 18.4%, following a rise of 15.4% in the previous quarter.
  However, we'd be remiss if we didn't note housing's role. Spending on residential
projects soared 22.7%, up dramatically from 6.6% in the 2nd quarter.
Employment/Manufacturing
  Not only did the economy create over a quarter million jobs
in the 2 months, it experienced a notable decline in filings for unemployment
claims. In fact, during Mid-November, the four-week average in claims reached
its lowest level in 19 months, and was 100,000 below its peak in April.
  However, despite the good news on jobs, manufacturing employment
continued to erode in October, making this morning's Institute for Supply
Management (ISM) report so heartening. Not only did the index show the sector's
activity growing faster than expected at 62.8% (any reading above 50 displays
growth), its employment component hit 51, meaning it was growing for the first
time in 38 months, with eight industries showing growth. And, in another positive
sign for the immediate future, ISM's "new order" component was up
to 73.7, the highest in any segment.
   While the earlier reports seemed to have little impact on the financial
markets, the response was dramatic this morning. By mid-day, stocks were up
dramatically, and 10 year bond yields were approaching 4.5%.
Michigan’s Jobs Grew
   Despite being hit far worse than the U.S. as a whole in recent years, there
was some semblance of good news for the state in recent months. Michigan,
like the nation, experienced an increase in employment in September and October,
making it only the second time since ‘00 that the economy increased jobs 2
consecutive months.
Economic Indicators
   More “good” news came from the Conference Board’s index of leading indicators,
rising at a 5.7% rate for the six months ending October 31st. Perhaps equally
as notable was that all ten components of the index showed improvement throughout
the half year period.
   Despite headlines noting sales of, both, new and existing homes
fell in October, the month was another exceptional period for housing, whether
we look at it from a national, state or local perspective.
   First of all, housing starts surged to a rate of 1.96 million units
while building permits soared to a 1.973 million rate. But more notable was
single family activity rising to its highest pace ever, 1.617 million
units, bringing ‘03’s ten month average to 1.461 million, up 7.6% from 2002’s
record breaking level. Furthermore, looking at the past 14 months, we find
only 1 where the rate fell below ‘02’s level.
   And, while home sales retreated from all time high levels, they remained well
above the previous year end records. For example, the National Association
of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell 4.9% to a rate of 6.35
million.
   However, that represented the fourth consecutive month that sales were above
the 6 million level, and bring the 10 month rate to 6.07 million, which is
9.1% above the year end record set last year.
   And, while new single family sales fell to their lowest level in the
past five months, they continued above 1.1 million units, bringing
the average rate for the year to 1.073 million, which is 10.3% last year’s
record level of 973,000 units.
   Since Commerce Department (U.S) reports are estimates, it’s difficult to
know what to make of data suggesting Michigan’s housing activity had
it strongest September and October period ever this year. According to the
data, 9,441 single family permits were issued during the 2 months, 23% above
the same months in ‘99 when an all time record 45,400 permits were issued
during the year. In fact, in a year to date comparison, permits are running
400 above that record setting year.
   Considering the state’s economy has been hit substantially harder than the
nation’s as a whole, it’s somewhat of a surprise. Furthermore, the state’s
housing activity hasn’t come close to approaching its 1999 level since the
turn of the century. However, it would make sense under the premise that the
rest of the nation is running more than 12% ahead of ‘99.
   As we posted on the web two weeks ago, Housing Consultants’ data showed Southeast Michigan activity up 9.8% (rentals excluded) and local activity up 6.5% above ‘02 levels. The federal report is quite close, as all of “Metro-Detroit” is up 7.4% for single family, while the Flint subsection is up 9.9% ... however, while the Flint area’s single family permits are at their highest level of the decade, total permits are at their lowest as only 125 rental permits issued.