December 2, 2003

Inside Veritas -
Article 1 - Michigan’s home appreciation still lags behind the nation
Article 2 - Regarding Veritas’ Schedule
Article 3 - Housing Industry News Briefs — November
Article 4 - Taxation and Finance - New tax revisions make year end review particularly important in ‘03
Article 5 -
Association News Update From Laura
Economic Update -
Even Manufacturing Employment?
BS: Still about Nothing in particular
Housing Industry Update

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Michigan’s home appreciation still lags behind the nation

   This morning the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight released its 3rd quarter House Price Index (measuring the real rate of appreciation across the nation) and Michigan (which led the nation during the final half of the ‘90s) continued to fall further behind the nation as a whole, ranking 44th of the 50 states. Michigan homes (on the average) gained 2.98% in value in the past twelve months, barely half of the 5.6% national average.
   The state’s low ranking has been continuous since late 2000, however this is the first time in eight years that Michigan’s 5 year appreciation rate has fallen below the national average. While an average home in the U.S. has gained 38% in value over the past 60 months, the average Michigan home has gained just 30%.
   The OFHEO report continues to show why we shouldn’t put so much emphasis on median price levels (see related brief on page 7). Earlier this month, the National Association of Realtors said metropolitan median prices rose 10.1% over the previous twelve months, which is nearly double the rate of appreciation.
   On a more local note, “Detroit’s” index was up 2.65% for the year while “Flint’s” rose 2.38%. Lansing led the state at 4.56.
   As we’ve noted in the past, there’s often a 100% differential between rising median prices and rising values at a time of historically low interest rates, and this seems to be the case at first glance of this HPI.

 

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Regarding Veritas’ Schedule

   Since summer of 1977, the Builders Association of Metro-Flint has published an association newsletter twice monthly, and for 22 years was able to consistently have it delivered in a timely manner. However, in 1999, we began to find that consistency was no longer a virtue as applied to the U.S. Postal Service, at least as it applied to “Pre-Sort Standard” mailing. Still, the service was normally tolerable, with most issues delivered in a reasonable period of time, at least for members in Genesee County.
   Last year, several issues were delayed for more than a week, and in 2003, things got worse. After problems early in the year, the late August and early September issues took nearly 2 weeks to get to their destinations, most arriving after the General Membership Meeting, presenting the proverbial “straw that broke the camel’s back.” So, beginning with the Special Issue of October 13th, we began sending Veritas first class, nearly doubling our mailing costs.
   Consequently, we’ve had to make some changes, the first of which is that Veritas will only be published once a month (unless “special issue” is necessary), normally at the end of each month’s first week. However, in this 21st Century world where some already consider printed matter obsolete, we’ll be adding a new service ... Continual updates on association and housing news on our website, www.bamfhome.com/ ... all with the same verve Veritas readers have come to expect (yes, “Seinfeld” section as well). So, look for the first “Veritas Update” coming in early November.

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Housing Industry News Briefs — November

  For several months we’ve made the point that far too much attention is given to median home prices. Our arguments relate to the fact that the media continuously gives the false impression that a rise in price levels is tantamount to a rise in values when, in reality, price levels are distorted by fluctuating costs of homeownership. And, our argument is consistently corroborated by the quarterly comparisons of the “Realtors” metropolitan price reports and the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) House Price Index, which far more accurately reflects real variances in home values.
   Our concern? That higher mortgage rates will bring lower median price levels in the same manner that lower interest rates raised price levels, as more buyers purchase less expensive homes. As the media continue to misinterpret the data, it will create the false impression that homes are actually depreciating.
   Well, to validate our concern, along came a Wall Street Journal feature last month citing a study by Fidelity National Financial regarding the impact of higher interest rates on the 25 largest metro-areas in the nation. The study found that in 12 of the 25 areas, median prices will decline if fixed rates rise to 8%, with “Boston” showing the biggest decline.
   So, how does the WSJ interpret the findings? Well, how about, “a median priced home in Boston, currently worth $407,000, would see its price tumble by $59,000 by ‘06.”
   Now, if the Wall Street Journal doesn’t understand the difference between value and price level, what will Peter Jennings do with the story? Create a “War of the Worlds’” like panic?

   “Et Tu” Detroit News? While we have come to expect antidevelopment commentary from the editorial pages of the Flint Journal, Free Press and Oakland Press, this past Saturday’s editorial in the Detroit News came as a shock. Citing a study by a liberal research group, the normally pro-growth News said “impact fees could be a useful tool in allowing governments to fairly spread the costs of development (such as roads, water and sewer lines).” The Public Interest Research Group in Michigan (PIRGIM) estimates its “proposed fees would impose $35,000 in additional costs for each new house or other development unit in Macomb Township,” according to the editorial. And, although the News finds that a “bit steep,” it endorses the idea in form of enabling legislation to allow such fees in Michigan. KolliFORNya here we come!

   Immigrants to Stimulate; Alter; Housing Activity? A couple of articles caught our eye (last week) regarding the impact of immigrants on the housing market. The first came from NAHB, noting that immigration has accelerated since the census, with a net of about 1.5 million coming to this country annually." Furthermore, NAHB forecasts the annual figure to rise, averaging 1.7 million from 2002 to 2012, creating an even bigger market for “both rental and for-sale markets.”
   The other article came from the Detroit Free Press, highlighting the difference in the housing desires of foreign born consumers. The primary focus of the Freep article was on cultural differences which were evident in some families building “mini-mansions on a highway that carries an average of 72,000 motorists daily.” The point of the article was that, in some cultures, it’s “prestigious to live in the center of a city” or on the main thoroughfare, where the home has higher visibility. In other words, why live in a secluded “gated community” where no one can see your apparent wealth?

  (Irony Defined) Ann Arbor says “GO GREEN!” Despite the fact its home town offensive line virtually “paved over the Green (Spartans)” three days earlier, Ann Arbor made amends November 4, as its voters overwhelmingly approved its “Parks and GREENbelt proposal,” voting nearly 2 to 1 in favor of a 1/2 mill (30 year) levy to purchase development rights on more than 7,000 acres of farmland and open space in, and around, the city. Since a similar countywide proposal was defeated a few years ago, the City and Township kept the vote within their respective borders, virtually assuring victory before the voters went to the polls (AA overwhelmingly approved the previous proposal). So, despite a valiant effort by “Citizens for Responsible Growth,” the landslide in the “Peoples’ Republic of Ann Arbor” was hardly a surprise.
   Of course, the real concern of builders and developers across the state is “will this cancer spread?” The answer is probably not! Unlike other central cities, Ann Arbor has a soaring tax base and extraordinary property values (by far the highest in the Midwest) — add to that its unique liberal bent, making it somewhat of a “joke” in many circles, and we doubt it will be seen as a target for aspiration from the Detroits, Flints, and Saginaws ... of course, if we’re talking the Grand Rapids' and KalamaZOOs, that may be another story!

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Taxation and Finance ---- New tax revisions make year end review particularly important in ‘03

   With year-end fast approaching, this is an excellent time for a final analysis of your financial and tax planning to ensure you and your business take advantage of the numerous tax breaks available in the new, as well as older, legislation. It is vital to regularly digest and review pertinent financial and tax records.
This review should include analysis of the following:
* Cash Flow Schedule (listing of income and expenses)
* Asset/Liability Listing
* Insurance Policy Listing
* Financial Goals Statement
* Checklist for Financial Planning Review
* Financial Goals Statement
* Other Relevant Information

   An annual review is especially important this year in light of the changes that have taken place in the markets and the revisions to the income tax laws by the $350 billion Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003, as well as the continuing temporary phase-out of the estate tax laws.
   To arrange your year-end meeting, please contact your financial and or tax professional.

R, P & T

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Beyond Seinfeld: It’s still about "Nothing" in particular

  Is Iraq a “Steve Forbes’ Flat

   Just when we thought the war in Iraq had something to do with a despicable dictator; or maybe terrorism, we find what’s perhaps a more frightening purpose. An early November Washington Post article told how Paul Bremer, the U.S. Administrator in Baghdad, placed a “Flat Tax” in Iraq with “no more than the stroke of a pen.” Bremer’s writ “will slash Saddam Hussein’s top tax rate for individuals and businesses from 45% to 15%.”
   Now, what’s scary about the decision to give Iraq a flat tax, is that it was discussed by Department of Treasury officials “before the war as preliminary planning,” according to the article. So, one has to speculate that, in at least some officials’ minds, there was thought of bringing the nation up from its ashes, with due credit to the concept.
   Since it’s frequently stated that states are mini-laboratories to try out concepts for the nation as a whole, could we be be viewing a Middle East laboratory for another Steve Forbes run in ‘08? Only Hillary could be so lucky!

Talk About “Conspiracies”

   Though we’re often critical of Disney’s Network (ABC), one has to give them a lot of credit for its promotion of the new “reality” show (Simple Life) premiering 12/2. Prior to October, Socialite Paris Hilton was hardly known to mainstream America. Then she was featured on an NFL game broadcast for “dating” Bears’ linebacker Brian Urlacher.
   Next, a hard-core video of Ms. Hilton appeared on the Internet, and “mainstream” reporters had something new to focus on (before Michael Jackson’s arrest). Now, her show debuts Tuesday, and we'll all be watching.

 

“Seinfeld” Briefs:
   Say it ain’t so Ahrnoldt! Although we’ve come to question the ability of Oakland Press editorial writers to comprehend reality, we were somewhat concerned at its 11/24 lead that “Schwarzenegger may lead drive for ‘smart’ urban growth.” Not that we’re concerned about his activities as Governor ... but if he comes back from the future in “Terminator 4” to stop the “Sprawl” that eventually destroyed mankind in the 24th Century (or thereabouts). It could be the biggest environment sensitive movie since “Godzilla versus the Smog Monster.”
   We always knew U-M Football was a “religion,” but now we have evidence. In a dispute between a homeowner and neighborhood association, the Court said stonework that read “Jesus is King” was not in violation of deed restrictions. Said defendants’ attorney, it’s comparable to flying the U-M Flag in support of the football team. “If you can say you’re for U-M, you can say you’re for Jesus,” she told the Oakland Press.

# # #

   A quote for the times by Sophie Freud (a psychology Professor no less) regarding Sigmund: “In my eyes, both Adolf Hitler and my grandfather were false prophets of the 20th Century."

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Association News and Events by Laura

  

   The 3rd annual Holiday Open House is set for Wednesday, December 10th, beginning at 4:00 p.m., and supposedly ending by 7:00, at the Builders Association Office (3059 Tri-Park Drive; Grand Blanc). Don’t forget to join us for hors d’oeuvres, libation, and the holiday spirit that’s put this event on the “must attend” list since its inception in 2001.

# # #

  
And, regarding the Holiday Season, just a reminder
that the office is traditionally closed between Christmas and New Years. However, staff will be in the office frequently during the period so, if you need to reach them, just leave a message ..... you’ll probably be surprised as to how quickly they get back to you.

   The 1st General Membership meeting of ‘04 is set for Wednesday evening January 21st at Bonaparte’s. We’ll be announcing details at the beginning of the year, however, this is the event where we have the formal installation of the new Officers and Directors elected in November, and the presentation of awards and recognition from 2003. So, mark the date on your calendar today!

# # #

  
Planning on attending the NAHB
convention in Las Vegas? The early registration period is nearly over. Unless you’d like to register in line, better go to www.buildersshow.com/ and register on line. NOTE: The final date for early registration is Wednesday, December 17, 2003 ....

# # #

  
On another note: NAHB dues will rise to $140
in January, which represents the second $10 of a $30 increase (the final increase will come in ‘05). So, your dues statements, beginning in '04, will reflect the increase. Remember, of the 480.00 you'll be billed, only 279.00 are for the BAMF ... and the remaining 201.00 is for MAHB and NAHB.

 

 

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Economic Update: Even Manufacturing Employment?

  With November's economic reports, it would almost make even the ultimate skeptic believe the economy's turned the proverbial corner. Early last month the Labor Department not only reported a decline in the jobless rate, it also said the economy created 12,000 jobs during the month, on the heels of rising an additional 125,000 in September. And, near the month's end, the Commerce Department revised 3rd quarter growth upward to a 20 year high of 8.2%.
  However, from this column's perspective, the most optimistic news came this (Monday) morning, when the Institute of Supply Management releases its report on Manufacturing activity showing, not only the continuation of growth in manufacturing, but also growth in sector employment for the first time in over three years (we'll see if it registers in this Friday's jobs' report). Even consumer confidence experienced a pre-holiday turnaround.

Economic growth
  The rise in Gross Domestic Product in the third quarter was revised to 8.2 percent, making it the fastest growing quarter since the beginning of 1984, as capital spending (rather than consumer spending) providing the major impetus. That's not to say consumers didn't do their part. In fact, consumer spending was up 6.4%, well above the 2nd quarter rate of 3.3%. However, investment by businesses rose 18.4%, following a rise of 15.4% in the previous quarter.
  However, we'd be remiss if we didn't note housing's role. Spending on residential projects soared 22.7%, up dramatically from 6.6% in the 2nd quarter.

Employment/Manufacturing
  Not only did the economy create over a quarter million jobs in the 2 months, it experienced a notable decline in filings for unemployment claims. In fact, during Mid-November, the four-week average in claims reached its lowest level in 19 months, and was 100,000 below its peak in April.
  However, despite the good news on jobs, manufacturing employment continued to erode in October, making this morning's Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report so heartening. Not only did the index show the sector's activity growing faster than expected at 62.8% (any reading above 50 displays growth), its employment component hit 51, meaning it was growing for the first time in 38 months, with eight industries showing growth. And, in another positive sign for the immediate future, ISM's "new order" component was up to 73.7, the highest in any segment.
   While the earlier reports seemed to have little impact on the financial markets, the response was dramatic this morning. By mid-day, stocks were up dramatically, and 10 year bond yields were approaching 4.5%.

Michigan’s Jobs Grew
   Despite being hit far worse than the U.S. as a whole in recent years, there was some semblance of good news for the state in recent months. Michigan, like the nation, experienced an increase in employment in September and October, making it only the second time since ‘00 that the economy increased jobs 2 consecutive months.

Economic Indicators
   More “good” news came from the Conference Board’s index of leading indicators, rising at a 5.7% rate for the six months ending October 31st. Perhaps equally as notable was that all ten components of the index showed improvement throughout the half year period.

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Housing Industry Update:

   Despite headlines noting sales of, both, new and existing homes fell in October, the month was another exceptional period for housing, whether we look at it from a national, state or local perspective.
   First of all, housing starts surged to a rate of 1.96 million units while building permits soared to a 1.973 million rate. But more notable was single family activity rising to its highest pace ever, 1.617 million units, bringing ‘03’s ten month average to 1.461 million, up 7.6% from 2002’s record breaking level. Furthermore, looking at the past 14 months, we find only 1 where the rate fell below ‘02’s level.
   And, while home sales retreated from all time high levels, they remained well above the previous year end records. For example, the National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell 4.9% to a rate of 6.35 million.
   However, that represented the fourth consecutive month that sales were above the 6 million level, and bring the 10 month rate to 6.07 million, which is 9.1% above the year end record set last year.
   And, while new single family sales fell to their lowest level in the past five months, they continued above 1.1 million units, bringing the average rate for the year to 1.073 million, which is 10.3% last year’s record level of 973,000 units.

   Since Commerce Department (U.S) reports are estimates, it’s difficult to know what to make of data suggesting Michigan’s housing activity had it strongest September and October period ever this year. According to the data, 9,441 single family permits were issued during the 2 months, 23% above the same months in ‘99 when an all time record 45,400 permits were issued during the year. In fact, in a year to date comparison, permits are running 400 above that record setting year.
   Considering the state’s economy has been hit substantially harder than the nation’s as a whole, it’s somewhat of a surprise. Furthermore, the state’s housing activity hasn’t come close to approaching its 1999 level since the turn of the century. However, it would make sense under the premise that the rest of the nation is running more than 12% ahead of ‘99.

   As we posted on the web two weeks ago, Housing Consultants’ data showed Southeast Michigan activity up 9.8% (rentals excluded) and local activity up 6.5% above ‘02 levels. The federal report is quite close, as all of “Metro-Detroit” is up 7.4% for single family, while the Flint subsection is up 9.9% ... however, while the Flint area’s single family permits are at their highest level of the decade, total permits are at their lowest as only 125 rental permits issued.

  

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